The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution: Past,Present, and Future

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is a methodology for the modeling and analysis of strategic conflicts. An historical overview of the graph model is presented, including the basic modeling and analysis components of the methodology, the decision support system GMCR II that is now used to apply it, and the recent initiatives that are currently in various stages of development. The capacity of this simple, flexible system to provide advice to decision-makers facing strategic conflicts is emphasized throughout, and illustrated using a real-life groundwater contamination dispute.     

Gunboats, reputation, and sovereign repayment: lessons from the Southern Confederacy

Many states that formed the Southern Confederacy defaulted on sovereign debt sold in international capital markets during the 1840s. The Confederacy also elected President Jefferson Davis, who openly advocated the repudiation of U.S. states' debts while a member of Congress. Despite its poor credit record, the Confederate government managed to float cotton bonds in England that constituted under 2% of its expenditures. The bonds were largely issued to settle overdue debts with gun contractors who had cut off trade credit. The South serviced the bonds as late as March 1865, a time of domestic hyperinflation and weeks before the fall of Richmond. Although the Confederate experience shows that trade sanctions can promote debt repayment, the gunboat model can only account for a small amount of lending. A reputation or another type of sanction would be necessary to support higher levels of lending in international capital markets.     

It is not about what you read,but how you read it: the effects of sequencing rational and emotional messages on corporate and product brand attitudes

The study aims to examine the effects of message sequencing on attitudinal responses, namely on the effects of rational to emotional and emotional to rational message sequences on consumer attitudes toward the corporate and product brand. A between-subjects experiment was conducted using a stratified random sample. Participants were exposed to advertisements that communicate marketing messages either in a rational to emotional sequence or in an emotional to rational sequence for a product advertised by an organization. All attitudinal responses to the corporate and product brand were collected through a questionnaire that was given at the end of the experiment. The findings suggest advertisements that communicate marketing messages in an emotional to rational sequence produced more favorable attitudes toward the product brand among consumers as compared to advertisements that communicate in a rational to emotional sequence. However, no significant differences were found on consumer attitudes toward the corporate brand. These results remain true regardless of gender.     

Do FOMC minutes matter to markets? An intraday analysis of FOMC minutes releases on individual equity volatility and returns

This paper examines the 2006 to 2007 time period to determine the extent to which the release of the Federal Reserve minutes affects equity volatility and returns for 2832 individual firms. Using intraday data, we find that equity returns are essentially unaffected by FOMC minutes releases. We do find evidence of volatility effects, in that conditional volatility is lower prior to the minutes release and higher after the minutes release on release days, relative to a “control” day one week prior to the release date. These differences manifest at the 2:00–2:05 pm interval, and generally dissipate within 15 min. Consistent with previous literature, we also find evidence of both industry-specific and firm size effects in our data. Finally, we see that volatility is higher (lower) when the minutes are released after the Federal Reserve engages in restrictive (expansionary) monetary policy. Our results are robust to a variety of different definitions of the “control” dates, as well as differing industry definitions.     

A story to sell: The influence of storytelling on consumers' purchasing behavior

Storytelling can arouse consumers' emotions and affect purchasing behavior through desires and attitudes. While the marketing literature discusses storytelling, there is a lack of consensus because of the diverse conceptual and operational definitions used. To untangle the complexities and consolidate the fragmented knowledge about storytelling in marketing, this research examines how the marketing literature has addressed the influence of storytelling on consumers' purchasing behavior. The findings aid in understanding how the topic has been discussed from a marketing perspective in consumer behavior studies. Through a systematic literature review using a bibliometric analysis, we demonstrate that the marketing literature features four strands about the uses of storytelling to influence consumers' purchasing behavior. First, storytelling stimulates the consumer's identification with the brand. Second, storytelling allows consumers to experience emotional value. Third, storytelling supports engagement behaviors. Finally, storytelling has a downside in that it also propagates harmful speech. This study concludes with a roadmap for future research about how storytelling impacts consumers' purchasing behavior.     

Uncovering the value of planning in new venture creation: A process and contingency perspective

Researchers are engaged in a major debate on the value of business planning in new venture creation. This study suggests a potential resolution by applying a process and contingency perspective. The results indicate that planning is beneficial, yet planning processes need to be governed by different planning regimes depending on the type of founding environment. In highly dynamic environments, entrepreneurs will get most value from planning when they focus on select planning activities, and speed up the planning task. In less dynamic environments, they are better of pursuing a munificent approach to planning. The analysis thus reveals a major component of theorization on business planning that has been neglected in previous discussions. As for entrepreneurship teaching and practice, the findings suggest the importance of an adaptive, “toolkit” approach to business planning. Hypotheses were developed based on information-processing and decision-making theory and were tested with an ordered probit analysis on a sample of 100 start-ups backed by venture capital.     

Selecting credit rating models: a cross-validation-based comparison of discriminatory power

In commercial banking, various statistical models for corporate credit rating have been theoretically promoted and applied to bank-specific credit portfolios. In this paper, we empirically compare and test the performance of a wide range of parametric and nonparametric credit rating model approaches in a statistically coherent way, based on a ‘real-world’ data set. We repetitively (k times) split a large sample of industrial firms’ default data into disjoint training and validation subsamples. For all model types, we estimate k out-of-sample discriminatory power measures, allowing us to compare the models coherently. We observe that more complex and nonparametric approaches, such as random forest, neural networks, and generalized additive models, perform best in-sample. However, comparing k out-of-sample cross-validation results, these models overfit and lose some of their predictive power. Rather than improving discriminatory power, we perceive their major contribution to be their usefulness as diagnostic tools for the selection of rating factors and the development of simpler, parametric models.

Financial Advice and Individual Investor Portfolio Performance

This paper investigates whether financial advisers add value to individual investors’ portfolio decisions by comparing portfolios of advised and self‐directed (execution‐only) Dutch individual investors. The results indicate significant differences in characteristics and portfolios between these investor groups, but no evidence of differences in risk‐adjusted performance. The findings indicate that portfolios of advised investors are better diversified and carry significantly less idiosyncratic risk. In addition, evidence from an analysis of investors who switch to advice taking indicates that these findings (at least in part) reflect the effect of advisory intervention.