Survival analysis software on MS/PC-DOS computers

There exist more than a dozen MS/PC-DOS programs with the capability of performing some form of survival analysis. Most of these are reviewed here, with respect to (1) the survival analysis methods they cover, (2) their ease of use and flexibility, (3) their user interface, (4) their graphics capabilities, and (5) their computational accuracy.     

Disability Costs and Equivalence Scales in the Older Population in Great Britain

We use a standard of living (SoL) approach to estimate older people's disability costs, using data on 8000 individuals from the U.K. Family Resources Survey. We extend previous research in two ways. First, by allowing for a more flexible relationship between SoL and income, the structure of the estimated disability cost and equivalence scale is not dictated by a restrictive functional form assumption. Second, we allow for the latent nature of disability and SoL, addressing measurement error in the disability and SoL indicators in surveys. We find that disability costs are strongly related to severity of disability, and vary with income in absolute and proportionate terms. Older people above the median disability level require an extra £99 per week (2007 prices) on average to reach the SoL of an otherwise similar person at the median. Costs faced by older people in the highest decile of disability average £180.     

Polychronicity in top management teams: The impact on strategic decision processes and performance of new technology ventures

This study focuses on polychronicity as a cultural dimension of top management teams (TMTs). TMT polychronicity is the extent to which team members mutually prefer and tend to engage in multiple tasks simultaneously or intermittently instead of one at a time and believe that this is the best way of doing things. We explore the impact of TMT polychronicity on strategic decision speed and comprehensiveness and, subsequently, its effect on new venture financial performance. Contrary to popular time‐management principles advocating task prioritization and focused sequential execution, we found that TMT polychronicity has a positive effect on firm performance in the context of dynamic unanalyzable environments. This effect is partially mediated by strategic decision speed and comprehensiveness. Our study contributes to research on strategic leadership by focusing on a novel value‐based characteristic of the TMT (polychronicity) and by untangling the decision‐making processes that relate TMT characteristics and firm performance. It also contributes to the attention‐based view of the firm by positioning polychronicity as a new type of attention structure. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Finance,energy and the decoupling: an empirical study

This paper investigates the empirical and theoretical basis of the decoupling between energy throughput and economic growth, with a critical view of the use of the decoupling concept as a policy priority. We provide an analysis of the historical trends of the metabolic pattern of European economies over a period of 18 years focusing on the changes in energy throughput and financial assets. The results show that energy consumption per hour of labor has remained constant, suggesting that no significant changes in production processes or technology have taken place in the productive sectors of the economy. The contribution of this paper is to establish a bridge between the economic analysis of financialization and the societal metabolism analysis of the economic process from a biophysical point of view. We argue that this bridge is crucial to draw attention to the biophysical consequences of financialization (a relative decoupling) and critically assess the pertinence of policies aimed at encouraging the decoupling in the context of increasing inequality.     

A revisited and stable Fourier transform method for affine jump diffusion models

In the last decade, fast Fourier transform methods (i.e. FFT) have become the standard tool for pricing and hedging with affine jump diffusion models (i.e. AJD), despite the FFT theoretical framework is still in development and it is known that the early solutions have serious problems in terms of stability and accuracy. This fact depends from the relevant computational gain that the FFT approach offers with respect to the standard Fourier transform methods that make use of a canonical inverse Levy formula. In this work we revisit a classic FT method and find that changing the quadrature algorithm and using alternative, less flawed, representation for the pricing formulas can improve the computational performance up to levels that are only three time slower than FFT can achieve. This allows to have at the same time a reasonable computational speed and the well known stability and accuracy of canonical FT methods.     

China and India in the global economy

The purpose of this overview paper is to present the economic growth in China and India over the last three decades with a specific focus on the integration of these countries into the global economy. In the first part, we briefly review the long-run process of growth and institutional change, emphasizing the reforms leading to the “opening” of the two economies. Then, we focus on key structural features and compare the recent development processes of the two countries. At the end, there are some hints about certain persisting imbalances and the sustainability of the growth processes.     

Bond risk premia,macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate

We propose a two-country no-arbitrage term-structure model to analyze the joint dynamics of bond yields, macroeconomic variables and the exchange rate. The model allows to understand how exogenous shocks to the exchange rate affect the yield curves, how bond yields co-move in different countries and how the exchange rate is influenced by interest rates, macro-economic variables and time-varying bond risk premia.Estimating the model with US and German data, we find that time-varying bond risk premia account for a significant portion of the variability of the exchange rate: apparently, a currency tends to appreciate when investors expect large capital gains on long-term bonds denominated in that currency. A number of other novel empirical findings emerge.     

On fitting distributed lag models subject to polynomial restrictions

A methodology is presented for fitting distributed lag models with polynomial restrictions on the lag coefficients. The model incorporates autoregressive residuals. Orthogonal methods are employed so that the procedures are numerically sound. Furthermore, these have the effect of allowing for inference to be made about the three integer parameters in the model: (i) the length of the lag, (ii) the degree of the polynomial, and (iii) the order of the autoregression. The methodology is applied to the extended Almon data. This analysis suggests that estimation of polynomial distributed lags is highly sensitive to autoregressive disturbances. This underlines the importance of modeling the disturbances.