Information and strategic voting

We theoretically and experimentally study voter behavior in a setting characterized by plurality rule and mandatory voting. Voters choose from three options. We are interested in the occurrence of strategic voting in an environment where Condorcet cycles may occur and focus on how information about the preference distribution affects strategic behavior. We also vary the relative importance of the second preferred option. Quantal response equilibrium analysis is used to analyze the game and derive predictions. Our results indeed show that strategic voting arises. Its extent depends on (i) information availability; (ii) the relative importance of the intermediate candidate; (iii) the electorate’s relative support for one’s preferred candidate; (iv) the relative position of the plurality-supported candidate in one’s preference ordering. Our results show that information serves as a coordination device where strategic voting does not harm the plurality-preferred candidate’s chances of winning.     

Congestion pricing,transit subsidies and dedicated bus lanes: Efficient and practical solutions to congestion

We analyze urban congestion management policies through numerical analysis of a simple model that: allows users to choose between car, bus or an outside option (biking); consider congestion interactions between cars and buses; and allow for optimization of frequency, vehicle size, spacing between stops and percentage of capacity to be dedicated to bus lanes. We compare resulting service levels, social welfare and consumer surplus for a number of different policies and find that: (i) dedicated bus lanes is a better stand-alone policy than transit subsidization or congestion pricing. The latter is marginally better than subsidization but has a negative impact in consumer surplus. (ii) Efficient transit subsidies are quite large since in many cases first-best transit price is negative; establishing dedicated bus lanes or implementing congestion pricing render subsidies unnecessary for high demand levels. (iii) Both subsidization and dedicated bus lanes would count with public support while congestion pricing would probably encounter opposition. (iv) Transit subsidies and/or congestion pricing do not induce large changes on optimal bus size, frequency, circulation speeds and spacing between stops in mixed-traffic conditions: dedicated bus lanes do. (v) In all cases analyzed, revenues from congestion pricing are enough to cover transit subsidies; the optimal percentage of capacity that should be devoted for bus traffic is around one third.     

On the determinants of inequality in Bosnia and Herzegovina

We provide empirical evidence on the determinants of income inequality in Bosnia and Herzegovina after the civil war. To do this, we use a an ordered probit approach and take advantage of the first post‐war household survey for the country which sheds some light on the influence of regional differences as well as household characteristics on income quintile determination. With respect to the former, we find large income differences between the two entities in the country, the Federation and Republika Srpska. Such income differences are also noticeable inside entities. On the latter, there are some signs that education, experience, and employment, among others, may help reduce the probability of income decline. Our results are robust to changes of specification as shown by applying a formal sensitivity analysis. JEL classification: O15, O10, I30.     

Income distribution,basic needs and trade-offs with growth: The case of semi-industrialized Latin American countries

This paper addresses income distribution issues and policy options to eliminate extreme poverty in a particular typology of middle-income semi-industrialized developing countries of Latin America. The countries included in the typology are characterized by a relatively high per capita income (above US$700/yr in 1977), a relatively high degree of industrialization (industry representing over 30% of GNP), a rather large size both in population and area, and relatively well endowed resources in agriculture. A distinctive feature is a strong inequality in the distribution of income and wealth relative to other countries of similar levels of per capita income. The countries included are Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru, representing two-thirds of the population of that region.     

Service quality in Brazilian mobile telephony: an efficiency frontier analysis

The mobile telephony sector is characterized by the dynamic interplay of rapid changes in technology and an apparently growing competition, as indicated by the fierce nonprice competition, and is yet associated with the entry of new operating companies in some cases. In this context, a relevant and neglected issue is the assessment of how service quality responded to an increasingly competitive environment. This study utilizes data envelopment analysis to assess the quality efficiency of mobile telephony companies in Brazil during the 2000–2003 period. Window analysis was conducted for the entire period, taking as reference different quality indicators pertaining to different forms of complaints and calls completed and interrupted. The efficiency measurement was made feasible by interpreting the indicators reflecting a positive dimension of quality as outputs and those reflecting negative aspects of quality as inputs. Given potential heterogeneities across firms that relate to the frequency band and to the technology (time division multiple access technology and code division multiple access technology among others), this article considered adjusted efficiency scores. The Tobit model for censored data was estimated to control for the aforementioned aspects. Rescaled residuals from the econometric estimation produced efficiency scores for service quality. The evidence indicated an overall improvement in efficiency over time. Nonparametric tests were consistent with a positive evolution of quality over time even for shorter subperiods.     

The innovation process as a complex structure with multilevel rules

Increasingly, innovation is conceived in a context of conventions or rules and complexity. However, there is a need for a theoretical basis that describes the innovation process based on complexity. In this essay, we propose a multilevel micro-meso-macro framework that aims to meet this need and further the discussion on complexity. In this framework, the rule is adopted as an analytical concept and used to establish a bridge between the several theories employed. Two gaps are identified in the innovation process: the first is related to the simplicity with which complexity is generally treated, and the second refers to a lack of focus on the rules embedded in the theories used in innovation. The goal of this theoretical essay is to propose a multilevel micro-meso-macro framework, based on the rules and principles of complexity, which can be used to analyze the innovation process. As a result, we propose a new framework in which the innovation rules and the interactions between those rules are detailed and based on principles of complexity.     

Fishing Revenue, Productivity and Product Choice in the Alaskan Pollock Fishery

A key element in evaluating fishery management strategies is examining their effects on the economic performance of fishery participants, yet nearly all empirical studies of fisheries focus exclusively on the amount of fish harvested. The economic benefits derived from fish stocks involve the amount of revenue generated from fish processing, which is linked to both the way fish are harvested and the products produced from the fish. In this study we econometrically estimate a flexible revenue function for catcher-processor vessels operating in the Alaskan pollock fishery, recognizing potential endogeneity and a variety of fishing inputs and conditions. We find significant own-price supply responses and product substitutability, and enhanced revenues from increased fishing days and tow duration after a regulatory change introduced property rights through a new fishing cooperative. We also find significant growth in economic productivity, or higher revenues over time after controlling for observed productive factors and price changes, which exceeds that attributable to increased harvest. These patterns suggest that the move to rights-based management has contributed significantly to economic performance in the pollock fishery.     

Asymmetric effects of shocks on TFP

We study the TFP distribution and examine the non-stationarity of productivity series at various quantiles. Using the quantile autoregression unit root test, we find that the US TFP exhibits an asymmetric adjustment dynamics, that is, positive and negative shocks might have different (permanent or temporary) effects on the TFP. Shocks dissemination depends on the local behaviour of the TFP. We find that positive shocks have permanent effects on the TFP, while negative shocks can potentially have only transitory effects.     

Exchange rate movements and monetary policy in Brazil: Econometric and simulation evidence

The literature on monetary economy has aroused growing interest in macroeconomics. Due to computational advancements, models have become increasingly more complex and accurate, allowing for an in-depth analysis of the relationships between real economic variables and nominal variables. Therefore, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, based on Gali and Monacelli (2005), we propose and estimate a model for the Brazilian economy by employing Bayesian methods so as to assess whether the Central Bank of Brazil takes exchange rate fluctuations into account in the conduct of monetary policy. The most striking result of the present study is that the Central Bank of Brazil does not directly change the interest rate path due to exchange rate movements. A simulation exercise is also used. Our conclusion is that the economy quickly accommodates shocks induced separately on the exchange rate, on the terms of trade, interest rate, and global inflation.     

Investigating exchange rate shocks on agricultural trade balance: The case of Tunisia

The paper studies the impact of changes in Tunisia's exchange rate on the net external position of the agricultural sector. It shows that substitutability on production and consumption among domestically produced goods leads to an ambiguous impact for reasons that go beyond the Marshall-Lerner condition. Using cointegration techniques to disentangle the long and short-run impact of changes in the exchange rate on the net agricultural trade balance, we find that the depreciation of the domestic currency leads to a deterioration of the net external position of Tunisia's agricultural sector in the long-run.