On the performance of the tick test

In financial research, the sign of a trade (or identity of trade aggressor) is not always available in the transaction dataset and it can be estimated using a simple set of rules called the tick test. In this paper we investigate the accuracy of the tick test from an analytical perspective by providing a closed formula for the performance of the prediction algorithm. By analyzing the derived equation, we provide formal arguments for the use of the tick test by proving that it is bounded to perform better than chance (50/50) and that the set of rules from the tick test provides an unbiased estimator of the trade signs. On the empirical side of the research, we compare the values from the analytical formula against the empirical performance of the tick test for fifteen heavily traded stocks in the Brazilian equity market. The results show that the formula is quite realistic in assessing the accuracy of the prediction algorithm in a real data situation.     

Regionalism as Industrial Policy: Evidence from MERCOSUR

This paper empirically explores whether trade preferences can be used as a substitute for industrial policy and help countries achieve their industrialization objectives at the expense of other regional members. Results show that Mercado Común del Sur (MERCOSUR) preferences obtained by Brazilian exporters have led to an increase in exports of relatively sophisticated products in which Brazil does not enjoy a global comparative advantage. On the contrary, smaller members of MERCOSUR export to the region products in which they have strong comparative advantages and with relatively low levels of sophistication. This suggests that MERCOSUR has helped Brazil achieve its industrialization objectives, but has not contributed to the industrialization of its smaller members.     

Multinational Corporations,Property Rights,and Legitimization Strategies: US Investors in the Argentine and Peruvian Oil Industries in the Twentieth Century

Multinational corporations in the extractive sector have historically faced challenges to their property rights, particularly in oil. International business scholars argue that firms can decrease these challenges by approaching domestic legitimating actors or seeking home government support. Through a study of the operations of Standard Oil of New Jersey in Peru and Argentina in the twentieth century, we find that these legitimating strategies can backfire due to two main elements: first, the multinational might approach actors with a different agenda from those defining, delineating, and enforcing property rights. Second, host countries can use home government support to multinationals to delegitimise foreign firms' operations.     

A ‘blank cheque'? Portuguese Second World War sterling balances, 1940–73

The British effort in the Second World War required massive external financing which depended on Lend‐Lease and the accumulation of sterling balances. Indebtedness in sterling balances corresponded to almost 38 per cent of this total at the end of the war. Portuguese sterling balances, although a small share of the total, were important because of pre‐emptive purchases, especially of wolfram, and because of the ‘gold clause’ which was to be applied to outstanding balances. Portugal's willingness to finance British purchases contrasts with the requirement of German payments in goods or cash for their purchases in Portugal. The settlement of Portuguese sterling balances in August 1945 was singular as it preceded the Anglo‐American settlement of December 1945 which had important consequences for sterling balance holders, as the US insisted that the US$3.75 billion loan should not be used to settle British war debts. Postwar settlement of British debt through a long‐term loan from Portugal to Britain contrasts with settlements that involved the sale of British assets. Salazar's concerns about the postwar international position of Portugal, the Portuguese Empire, and the survival of the Portuguese regime are relevant in explaining his pro‐British stance during and after the war.     

Basel III and Central Banks With Multiple Objectives： Convergences Between Targets

This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a Central Bank, like the Brazilian Central Bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, when it operates subject to the Bank for International Settlements （BIS） recommendations gathered in the recent Basel III agreement. A Brazilian conjuncture analysis starts with the economic stabilization plan known as Piano Real （July, 1994） and takes account that, from 2007 onwards, the world economy is going through troubled times unchained by the international financial crisis that motivated the recent Basel Agreement （Basel III）. There are two lines of analysis： macroeconomic and marketing. From the macroeconomic approach, there are plenty models to predict money supply and monetary aggregates. From a marketing perspective, it can be inferred that technologies potentially innovatives may alter the current scenario. The financial time series chosen are： daily money supply, banking reserves, and annual inflation （monthly announced）. The first statistical and empirical evidences from the period （July, 1994 to December, 2011） show that the management of banking reserves does not interfere with the continuous growth of the monetary base plus demand deposits （M1） and cash in circulation, which possibly indicates an increasing financial inclusion. Moreover, there is no evidence that it creates inflationary pressures. The future works may require competencies pertinent to prospective finance and consumer behavior （marketing）.     

External Shocks and the Demand for Adjustment Finance

When a country experiences a long-term adverse external shock,resulting in a balance of payments deficit unsustainable inthe medium term, how quickly should it adjust? Because timeis required for movement of productive factors and consumptionpatterns, the short-term effect of the shock will be a largeincrease in the value of foreign exchange. It then pays to borrowabroad during the first years of the transition against thoseyears when full resource and demand reallocations have takenplace. To allow this adjustment path, the market exchange rateshould follow the shadow exchange rate. This article uses asimple traded/nontraded sector model with lagged responses andoptimal borrowing theory to derive a quantitative relationshipbetween the magnitude of the shock and the optimal amount ofborrowing, the speed at which the original shortfall of foreigncurrency should be closed, and the required currency depreciationduring the borrowing and repayment period.     

On `indirect' trade-related R&D spillovers

An influential literature argues that trade promotes knowledge flows and technology transmission between trading partners. This literature focuses on `direct' research and development (R&D) spillovers which are related to the levels of R&D produced by the trading partners. In this paper, we argue that `indirect' trade-related R&D spillovers also take place between countries, even if they do not trade with each other. These `indirect' spillovers are associated with available rather than with produced levels of R&D. Our empirical results suggest that these `indirect' trade-related spillovers are at least as important as the `direct' ones, and strengthen the view that trade does matter for the international transmission of R&D. They also suggest that, due to the existence of these `indirect' effects, bilateral trade patterns are relatively less important determinants of the level of foreign R&D spillovers acquired through trade.     

Short-cuts in issuance decisions and subsequent small firm performance

This paper examines the subsequent change in performance characteristics of companies that make security issuance choices consistent with “following the herd.” It extends the literature on decision heuristics (i.e., decision short-cuts) by exploring the outcome of mimicking behavior. Results suggest that firms that issue equity in an environment consistent with mimicking are associated with subsequent increased risk of bankruptcy relative to their non-mimicking counterparts. Moreover, the results also suggest that these mimicking actions are not associated with subsequent changes in profitability. This gives support to the argument that decision short-cuts produce suboptimal results. Moreover, the effect is concentrated in very small (i.e., micro-cap) companies, but not present for companies in larger size categories. Similar patterns for debt issuers who mimic competitors are not observed, which may reflect the greater scrutiny imposed by lenders and debt under-writers with regard to debt issuances.

Regional versus global production networks: where does Latin America stand?

This article quantifies the effects of the Latin American Integration Association (LAIA) and the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) on the trade of intermediate goods and also on the trade of final goods. It is the first article to investigate whether increasing imports of intermediate goods from different regions to Latin America have led to higher exports of final and intermediate goods. The article uses sectoral data for trade in goods between 11 LAIA members over the period 1991–2008. The main results indicate evidence of increasing regional production networks, which have strengthened in the 2000s. Moreover, the findings show evidence of the emergence of global production networks, especially with respect to intermediate imports from China.