Effects of time horizon and asset condition on the profitability of technical trading rules

In much of the literature, the debate over technical trading strategies has centered around the question of whether an actively managed portfolio, controlled by a technical indicator, can outperform a passively managed portfolio. Typically, the time horizon is considered to be years. Additionally, the trader is assumed to use a technical trading strategy that is independent of asset conditions. These assumptions may not correspond well with reality. Traders often have much shorter time horizons and may switch between rebalancing or trading strategies on the basis of perceived shifts in market condition. This paper presents a study of the profitability of technical trading rules as a function of asset state or condition. Several common technical trading strategies were run on 296 stocks over a 15 year period. Strategies were run with 1 month rolling time horizons, significantly shorter than those used in similar studies in the literature. Stocks were segmented based on volatility and volume, which allowed for the examination of a strategy’s performance in different asset conditions. Several strategies were demonstrated to have consistently better risk-to-reward ratios under specific asset conditions and short time horizons. This finding helps to explain why some practitioners implement technical trading strategies.     

Planning in Turbulent Times: Exploring Planners' Agency in Jerusalem

This article explores the role of planning in the deeply divided and politically polarized context of Jerusalem. The overall argument developed throughout the article is that the relation between planning and politics is a non‐hierarchical set of interactions, negotiated within specific historical, geographical, legal and cultural contexts—in other words, orders don't come down from the politicians to be slavishly followed by planners. In this respect our findings, based on in‐depth interviews with Israeli planners, suggest that the case of Jerusalem represents a particularly dramatic illustration of the fact that the function of planning expertise can only be understood in relation to the surrounding socio‐political environment. Furthermore, contrary to conventional wisdom, planners in Jerusalem are not destined to either complicity or irrelevance in the face of political imperatives; planners' agency, however, does not simply reflect their mastery of specific professional knowledge and tools, but also their ability to act strategically in relation to the context in which they operate.     

Enticing the Stork: Can we Evaluate Pro‐Natal Policies Before Having Children?

Aside from immigration, the only meaningful demographic lever available to policymakers attempting to moderate the rate of ageing is the birth rate. This article departs from previous analyses of pro‐natal policies by studying determinants of pro‐natal options ex ante, which represents an advantage for policymakers looking to craft policies with prior knowledge of whether or not a demographic policy will have a significant effect. Our multinomial regression model for a US sample involving college students shows that the preferred choice of pro‐natal incentive is dependent on gender, economic class, number of planned children and migrant status. We find that females are more likely than males to choose any pro‐natal incentive over no incentive. The highest odds for increasing planned number of children are for maternity leave and parental leave options. Respondents associating themselves with the poorest economic class are more likely to choose daycare or government grant as pro‐natal options.     

A new method for measuring congestion in data envelopment analysis

In data envelopment analysis (DEA), there are two principal methods for identifying and measuring congestion: Those of Färe et al. [Färe R, Grosskopf S. When can slacks be used to identify congestion. An answer to W. W. Cooper, L. Seiford, J. Zhu. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 2001;35:1–10] and Cooper et al. [Cooper WW, Deng H, Huang ZM, Li SX. A one-model approach to congestion in data envelopment analysis. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 2002;36:231–8]. In the present paper, we focus on the latter work in proposing a new method that requires considerably less computation. Then, by proving a selected theorem, we show that our proposed methodology is indeed equivalent to that of Cooper et al.     

Comparing debt characteristics and LGD models for different collections policies

This paper discusses the similarities and differences in the collection process between in-house and 3rd party collection. The objective is to show that, although the same type of modelling approach to estimating the Loss Given Default (LGD) can be used in both cases, the details will be significantly different. In particular, the form of the LGD distribution suggests that one needs to split the distribution in different ways in the two cases, as well as using different variables. The comparisons are made using two data sets of the collection outcomes from two sets of unsecured consumer defaulters.     

A linear approximation to the power function of a test

In this paper we obtain a linear approximation to the power function of a test that is very accurate for small sample sizes. This is especially useful for robust tests where not many power functions are available. The approximation is based on the von Mises expansion of the tail probability functional and on the Tail Area Influence Function (TAIF). The goals of the paper are, first to extend the definition of the TAIF to the case of non identically distributed random variables, defining the Partial Tail Area Influence Functions and the Vectorial Tail Area Influence Function; second, to obtain exact expressions for computing these new influence functions; and, finally, to find accurate approximations to the power function, that can be used in the case of non identically distributed random variables. We include some examples of the application of this linear approximation to tests that involve the Huber statistic and also saddlepoint tests, so proving that the approximations apply not only to simple problems but also to complex ones.     

Sustainability Development and the Quality of Assurance Reports: Empirical Evidence

There is a rising trend among companies to publish their sustainability or corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports. Assurance of these reports is a valuable voluntary tool to provide them with higher credibility. Nonetheless, the quality of assurance reports differs in practice and the objective of this paper is to provide evidence in this new area of research. Indeed, we are pioneers in developing an index to measure the quality of assurance reports. We choose the Spanish setting because it is the worldwide leading country as regards CSR reporting (KPMG, 2011; Sierra et al., 2012). We have found evidence on the determinants for CSR reporting posited by existing literature that have an impact on (a) the decision of companies to publish their CSR reports, (b) the decision to assure the CSR report or not and (c) the decision to hire the assurance services from an auditor or a consultant and the subsequent quality of the assurance report. Last but not least, our results from a sample of 161 CSR assurance reports evidence that assurance reports are of fairly acceptable quality, according to the index proposed. Furthermore, the value of the quality index is significantly higher if the assurance services are provided by an auditor (as opposed to a consultant) and if the CSR reporting company is larger. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Groups in the Airline Industry using Latent Class Regressions

Two major controversies in strategic group research have been whether strategic groups actually exist and if so what is the best methodological approach to identify them. One perspective on strategic groups suggests that a strategic group exists if and only if the performance of a firm in the group is a function of group characteristics after controlling for firm and industry characteristics. We test this theoretical position by developing and estimating a model for the airline industry using latent class regressions. Our analysis finds evidence for the existence of four distinct strategic groups of firms in the airline industry. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emerging managerial competencies of professionals in the Tanzanian construction industry

The managerial competencies required by professionals in the construction industry in Tanzania to operate effectively in a business environment which is changing as a result of a transition from a socialist to a free-enterprise economy, economic liberalization, globalization and regionalization are explored through a qualitative study. The study reveals that local Tanzanian construction firms are finding it difficult to compete with foreign companies for projects. This is mainly because Tanzanian professionals lack the competencies required to compete and manage projects in a liberalized market economy.

The study thus highlights the need for Tanzanian construction professionals to acquire a better grasp of both occupational and organizational competencies. In this respect, it is suggested that they need post-experience training in order to acquire the competencies required to function successfully in a commercial environment.     

Perceived compensation discrimination against physically disabled people in Andalusia

This study proposes and tests a model that explains the job dissatisfaction of the physically disabled as a result of their general perception that they are treated inequitably by their employer, and their specific perception that they have experienced discrimination in compensation. These three variables have not previously been studied in combination. Using the theoretical framework of organisational justice, we apply structural equation models to test our hypotheses in a sample of 220 employed people with physical disabilities in Andalusia. We show that the perception of discrimination in compensation follows the perception of inequity and mediates the relationship between that perception and job dissatisfaction.