THE EMPIRICAL MEASUREMENT OF RENT‐SEEKING COSTS

Abstract This survey focuses on the efforts, carried out mainly by public choice scholars, to measure the social cost of rent seeking. The concept, introduced by Gordon Tullock in 1967 and coined by Anne Krueger in 1974, is well known and accepted by the profession, but its empirical measurement has fallen behind with respect to its theoretical formulation, an often criticized lack in the literature. Although there are good general surveys, none has specifically focused on reviewing the empirical efforts made to measure the phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to provide such a survey.     

Economic Openness and Fiscal Multipliers*

Recent empirical findings attribute a central role to the degree of economic openness to determine the size of the fiscal multiplier. See, for instance, Ilzetzki et al. (2013) [How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(2), 239–254]. However, traditional macroeconomic models have difficulties to account for this evidence. By introducing ‘deep-habit’ formation into a New Keynesian small open economy model, this paper provides a theoretical framework which is able to attest for the new empirical evidence. Deep habits give rise to counter-cyclical firm markups, which are crucial to generate effects of openness on the fiscal multiplier as found in the data. We study three dimensions of economic openness: exchange rate flexibility, trade openness, and capital mobility. In line with the empirical findings, we report a negative relationship between measures of economic openness and the fiscal multiplier.     

Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis

In this paper we apply wavelet analysis to study the dynamics of long-term movements in wholesale prices for the USA, the UK and France over the period 1791–2012. The application of wavelet analysis to long-term historical price series allows us to detect long waves in prices whose periodization is remarkably similar to those provided in the literature for the pre-World War II period. Moreover, we find evidence on the existence of long waves in prices also after World War II, a period in which long waves are generally difficult to detect because of the positive trend displayed by prices. The comparison between the long wave components extracted through wavelets and the Christiano–Fitzgerald band-pass filter suggests that wavelets provide a reliable and straightforward technique for analyzing long waves dynamics in time series exhibiting quite complex patterns such as historical data.     

INFORMATION IN THE YIELD CURVE: A MACRO‐FINANCE APPROACH

We use a macro‐finance model, incorporating macroeconomic and financial factors, to study the term premium in the US bond market. Estimating the model using Bayesian techniques, we find that a single factor explains most of the variation in bond risk premiums. Furthermore, the model‐implied risk premiums account for up to 40% of the variability of one‐ and two‐year excess returns. Using the model to decompose yield spreads into an expectations and a term premium component, we find that, although this decomposition does not seem important to forecast economic activity, it is crucial to forecast inflation for most forecasting horizons. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT IN SOLIDARITY ECONOMY ORGANIZATIONS: THE CASE OF FAIR TRADE SHOPS IN ITALY

ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to introduce a multidimensional assessment model for organizations that have multiple goals and are not driven exclusively by profit. Therefore, it is an assessment method particularly suitable for social enterprises. In order to measure the efficiency of production units in each dimension, the Data Envelopment Analysis non‐parametric method is applied. Our case study is concerned with Fair Trade shops and members of the consortium Altromercato for which we collected variables that could be associated with input and output for the economic, socio‐cultural and organizational dimensions. The results of the analysis confirm the presence of economies of scale in the economic dimension but not in the socio‐cultural dimension. Moreover, our organizational analysis confirmed a low general professionalization. Our results also confirm, on the one hand, the more pronounced capacity of cooperatives to sell Fair Trade products compared to associations, which, on the other hand, have the tendency to achieve proportionately better results in the socio‐cultural dimension.     

The Role of the Judiciary in the Public Decision‐Making Process

Empirical work on the relationship between political corruption and the design of public institutions suggests that the structure of judiciaries is an important determinant of corruption. This study develops a simple political economic model to investigate the role of judicial oversight in the policy‐making process for corruption deterrence, focusing on two dimensions of quality of the judiciary, namely efficiency and integrity. Our analysis explicitly accounts for the possibility that, while being independent of the political authority, the judiciary itself may be vulnerable to pressure from special interests. We study endogenous policy‐making under complete information and provide general conditions for the existence of deterrence (zero‐bribe) equilibria. In particular we show that preserving the independence of judiciaries in corrupt societies proves crucial to the existence of corruption‐deterrence effects.     

Temporary hires and innovative investments

The flexicurity approach claims a positive effect of flexible labour on firm performance, also through an increased ability to innovate. Critics consider it a deregulation of the labour market, decreasing investment in human capital and innovation. We contribute to this broad debate providing an estimate of the relationships linking innovative investment, substitution investment, permanent hires and temporary hires. In particular, we aim at affirming or denying that innovative investments are accompanied by a specific kind of workforce, being it stable or flexible. In doing so, we contribute to bridge the gap among two quite separate strands of literature, as existing literature usually analyses capital and labour separately. Estimating a nonlinear recursive equation system we highlight a significant increase in the likelihood of hiring on a permanent base when the firm innovates; this holds till 2008. Afterward, during the crisis, innovating firms are more likely to hire using temporary contracts instead, a possible signal of a cost saving strategy adopted in a loose labour market by firms still able to innovate. Furthermore, both permanent and temporary hires never depend on increases in labour costs; however, substitution investment increases when labour cost increases, maybe in an attempt to increase labour productivity through a more efficient capital equipment.     

The rest of me

iPhone Siri demonstratively introduced natural language processing. Still a gadget, the idea revived one of the old promises of computers as personal assistants. Does it have the potential of fulfilling the already burgeoning imagination related to this promise? The authors believe that, while still dependent on the evolution of artificial intelligence, the virtual assistant may find support in the already maturing technologies of augmented reality and, more important, in the changing global network with the semantic web, Internet of things and geo-location. Bluntly speaking, its feasibility and acceptability may not even have to wait for the promised IBM computer with human brain capabilities, but rather build on a more friendly interaction with the Google search engine.The article provides a narrative scenario of the deep economic and social transformations and even turbulence that the so called imaginary friend may produce. Not discarding, but creatively integrating some of the archetypes of futuristic literature, the story positions these entities as the foreground of a deep integration of networks, with the added turmoil caused by economic interests that go beyond individuals’ sense-making capacity.This article is one of the follow-ups of the international foresight workshop “Crazy futures” coordinated by Ziauddin Sardar and George Cairns in a small resort on the Danube Delta in July 2011, a workshop organised as part of the project Quality and Leadership for Romanian Higher Education.     

Bids as a Vehicle of (Mis)Information: Collusion in English Auctions with Affiliated Values

In an English auction, a bidder’s strategy depends on the prices at which his competitors drop out, because these convey information on the value of the object on sale. A ring of colluding bidders can strategically manipulate the information transmitted through its members’ bids, in order to mislead other bidders into bidding less aggressively and thus allow a designated bidder to bid more aggressively. Collusion increases the probability that the ring wins the auction and reduces the price it pays. The presence of a ring harms other bidders (as well as the seller) and reduces efficiency.     

The effects of economic news on commodity prices

We assess how commodity prices respond to macroeconomic news and show that commodities have been relatively insensitive to such news over daily frequencies between 1997 and 2009 compared to other financial assets and major exchange rates. Where commodity prices are influenced by news, there is a pro-cyclical bias and these sensitivities have risen as commodities have become increasingly financialized. However, models based on news still do a relatively poor job of forecasting commodity prices at daily frequencies. We also find some asymmetries in how commodity prices respond to news, most notably for gold, which alone among commodities acts as a safe-haven when “bad” economic news emerges.