Measuring dynamics and structural change of time-dependent socio-economic networks

This paper addresses the issue of measuring temporal dynamics of complex socio-economic relational systems, represented as time-dependent networks. Network dynamics is first splitted into a structural component, accounting for changes in the network topology, and a non-structural component, accounting for permutation of vertex labels. A quantitative measure of the dynamics and its components is then proposed and it is shown how it can be used to investigate and interpret the time evolution of networks. A real example is discussed, pertaining to the dynamics of a subnetwork of the Italian corporate board network.     

Fitting observed inflation expectations

The paper provides evidence on the extent to which inflation expectations generated by a standard Christiano et al. (2005)/Smets and Wouters (2003)-type DSGE model are in line with what observed in the data. We consider three variants of this model that differ in terms of the behavior of, and the public's information on, the central banks' inflation target, allegedly a key determinant of inflation expectations. We find that (i) time-variation in the inflation target is needed to capture the evolution of expectations during the post-Volcker period; (ii) the variant where agents have Imperfect Information is strongly rejected by the data; (iii) inflation expectations appear to contain information that is not present in the other series used in estimation, and (iv) none of the models fully capture the dynamics of this variable.     

Using value analysis to support knowledge transfer in the multi-project setting

This paper investigates how formalized methodologies can effectively support the implementation of knowledge transfer practices in the multi-project setting. We propose a knowledge collection and transfer model grounded on the Value Analysis technique, empirically developed and validated through an action research in the shipbuilding industry. The proposed model facilitates decision making across multiple projects in the cruise ship design by stimulating the reuse of the available knowledge base and the exploitation of information needed to identify design solutions to solve the trade-off between functional requirements and available resources.     

Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area

The purpose of this paper is for the first time to use Business Tendency Survey data, first, to identify new facts that are useful for the interpretation of the decline in the volatility of real activity in the Euro area, and, second, to test the inventory management hypothesis as an explanation for the Great Moderation in Europe. We present stylized facts from the Business Tendency data on series for inventories, current production, current orders, and expected production for the Euro area, emphasizing the decline in the volatility of the series. Further, we investigate whether the decline in inventory volatility can be attributed to an endogenous change in the persistence of shocks to the accumulation dynamics of inventories or to an exogenous change in the shocks hitting the inventory optimisation process. Our results at Euro level generally indicate that there is no evidence of a break in the inventory accumulation process. On the contrary, the impact of exogenous shocks on inventory volatility appears to be steadily declining over time, beginning from the mid-1980s.     

On negative time preferences

Survey data show that subjects positively discount both gains and losses but discount gains more heavily than losses. This holds for monetary and non-monetary outcomes. These results do not confirm the findings of two earlier studies about negative time preferences for non-monetary outcomes.     

Modelling non-performing loans probability in the commercial banking system: efficiency and effectiveness related to credit risk in Italy

In this article, we model the effect of the non-performing loans on the cost structure of the commercial banking system. With this aim, we comment on an increase in the non-performing loans by studying the consequences of such a change on the cost function and compute the probability of failure of maintaining a performing loan as such. In doing so, we are convinced that geography does matter and evaluate the risk propensity of the bank towards the non-performing loans accordingly. We finally stress that traditional efficiency indicators of cost elasticity do not fit properly with such a problem and propose a measure based on the costs for managing and monitoring the loans which, according to the related density function, will reveal effectively as non performing.     

The monoclus of a coalitional game

The analysis of single-valued solution concepts, providing payoffs to players for the grand coalition only, has a long tradition. Opposed to most of this literature we analyze allocation scheme rules, which assign payoffs to all players in all coalitions. We introduce several closely related allocation scheme rules, each resulting in a population monotonic allocation scheme (PMAS) whenever the underlying coalitional game with transferable utilities has a PMAS. Monotonicities, which measure the payoff difference for a player between two nested coalitions, are the driving force. These monotonicities can best be compared with the excesses in the definition of the (pre-)nucleolus. Variants are obtained by considering different domains and/or different collections of monotonicities. We deal with nonemptiness, uniqueness, and continuity, followed by an analysis of conditions for (some of) the rules to coincide. We then focus on characterizing the rules in terms of subbalanced weights. Finally, we deal with computational issues.     

Revenue Sharing,Competitive Balance and the Contest Success Function

Abstract. This paper investigates revenue sharing in an asymmetric two‐teams contest model of a sports league with Nash behavior of team owners. The innovation of the analysis is that it focuses on the role of the contest success function (CSF). In case of an inelastic talent supply, revenue sharing turns out to worsen competitive balance regardless of the shape of the CSF. For the case of an elastic talent supply, in contrast, the effect of revenue sharing on competitive balance depends on the specification of the CSF. We fully characterize the class of CSFs for which revenue sharing leaves unaltered competitive balance and identify CSFs ensuring that revenue sharing renders the contest closer.     

Drivers of entrepreneurial aspirations at the country level: the role of start-up motivations and social security

This paper investigates whether various start-up motivations and a country’s level of social security can explain the prevalence of entrepreneurial aspirations. For entrepreneurial aspirations and motivations we use country-level data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) for the year 2005. We distinguish between the necessity motive, independence motive and increase wealth motive and between aspirations in terms of innovativeness, job growth and export orientation. Our findings indicate that social security negatively affects a country’s supply of ambitious entrepreneurship. Our results also suggest that entrepreneurial aspirations in terms of job growth and export relate positively to the increase wealth motive.