Incorporating biometric data in models of consumer choice

The use of neuro-physiological data in models of consumer choice is gaining popularity. This article presents some of the benefits of using psycho-physiological data in analyzing consumer valuation and choice. Eye-tracking, facial expressions, and electroencephalography (EEG) data were used to construct three non-conventional choice models, namely, eye-tracking, emotion and brain model. The predictive performance of the non-conventional models was compared to a baseline model, which was based entirely on conventional data. While the emotion and brain models proved to be as good as conventional data in explaining and predicting consumer choice, the eye-tracking model generated superior predictions. Moreover, we document a significant increase in predictive power when biometric data from different sources were combined into a mixed model. Finally, we utilize a machine learning technique to sparse the data and enhance out-of-sample prediction, thus showcasing the compatibility of biometric data with well-established statistical and econometric methods.     

Large newsvendor games

We consider a game, called newsvendor game, where several retailers, who face a random demand, can pool their resources and build a centralized inventory that stocks a single item on their behalf. Profits have to be allocated in a way that is advantageous to all the retailers. A game in characteristic form is obtained by assigning to each coalition its optimal expected profit. We consider newsvendor games with possibly an infinite number of newsvendors. We prove in great generality results about balancedness of the game, and we show that in a game with a continuum of players, under a nonatomic condition on the demand, the core is a singleton. For a particular class of demands we show how the core shrinks to a singleton when the number of players increases.     

What kind of preference maximization does the weak axiom of revealed preference characterize?

A (multivalued) choice is justified if no two chosen alternatives are preferred to each other, and if all chosen alternatives are preferred to all rejected alternatives. This concept permits a connection between the behavioral property expressed by WARP and a weak form of preference maximization. I am grateful to Michele Lombardi, Michael Mandler, Paola Manzini and an anonymous referee for useful discussions and comments.     

Technology shocks, structural breaks and the effects on the business cycle

It is shown that time-series of US productivity and hours are apparently affected by a structural break in the late 60s. Moreover, the importance of technology shocks over the business cycle has sharply decreased after the break.     

Smoke in the (Tariff) Water

As the economic crisis deepened and widened, fears of a return to the protectionist spiral of the 1930s become more common. However, an important difference between the 1930s and today is the existence of the World Trade Organization and the legal limits it imposes on the protectionist responses members can pursue. The first objective of this paper is to assess the extent to which applied tariffs can be legally raised without violating bound tariff obligations and compare it with what is economically feasible. The second objective is the examination of whether individual countries have taken advantage of these legal tariff hikes as protectionist responses during economic crises, after the creation of the WTO. Results suggest that the policy space left when looking at what is economically possible is indeed quite large. However, in the recent past little of the available policy space has been used by countries suffering from an economic crisis.     

Disclosure Strategies and Cost of Capital

Theoretically, companies disclosing more voluntary information will benefit from a lower cost of capital, although empirical research provides inconclusive results. Our study aims to analyze the influence of the disclosure of forward‐looking information on the cost of capital, because this information is extremely useful for investors. Results show that only specific information on actions, programs, decisions, and/or quantitative financial information helps toward the reduction of cost of capital. This evidence has direct economic implications, because it enables regulators and managers to focus on those disclosure strategies that are effective in the reduction of cost of capital. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ranking participants in tournaments by means of rating functions

In this paper we bring a novel approach to the theory of tournament rankings. We combine two different theories that are widely used to establish rankings of populations after a given tournament. First, we use the statistical approach of paired comparison analysis to define the performance of a player in a natural way. Then, we determine a ranking (and rating) of the players in the given tournament. Finally, we show, among other properties, that the new ranking method is the unique one satisfying a natural consistency requirement.     

The Quasi-split Effect, Active Insiders and the Italian Market Reaction to Equity Rights Issues

The positive market reaction at the announcement of most European rights issues can be explained by two major factors which distinguish them from a US public offering: active insiders, and a quasi-split effect which signals a large increase in the dividend yield. An analysis of 428 Italian rights offerings and an event study involving 82 observations in the 1980–94 period show that Italian insiders are completely 'active', and almost 85 % of the equity rights issues result in a dividend yield increase, which corresponds to the quasi-split effect in approximately 40 % of the issues. The dividend yield rises, on average, by a significant +61 % after a combined rights offering and by a significantly lower +20 % following a fully-paid rights issue. The market reaction to the announcement is significantly positive for combined rights offerings (+ 2.77 %) and positive, but not significant, for the whole sample (+ 0.79 %). The dividend increase signalled by the quasi-split effect explains almost 30 % of the abnormal returns' cross-sectional variation and it is the only significant explanatory variable.     

ELECTIONS AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY CYCLES

This paper presents a theoretical model based on the distributive effects of real exchange rate (RER) changes that generates RER electoral cycles of the type identified in Latin American countries: more appreciated RER before elections and more depreciated after elections. Typically, a RER depreciation favors exporters and import-competing domestic industries, to the detriment of consumers. These RER cycles are generated by imperfect information on policy-makers' preferences, which are concealed from voters with the help of an unstable macroeconomic environment. Exchange rate cycles result from the interplay between the electoral power of the non-tradable sector and the tradable sector's ability to lobby the government.