Cross-country differences in the contribution of future migration to old-age financing

As life expectancy increases and fertility declines, population aging puts pressure on the financing of welfare states in Europe and other developed countries. Given that immigrant workers are younger than the domestic population, a continuous flow of immigrants reduces the old-age dependency ratio and improves financing. Existing general equilibrium estimates of the public finance contribution of migration, performed with different models, are not comparable across countries and sometimes differ even in sign. We use the same overlapping-generations model with a detailed representation of institutions and labor market activity to provide comparable estimates of the impact of immigration on public finance in four European countries. We find that future projected immigration flows are equivalent to 14.3 % points labor income taxes in Austria, 7.3 points in Germany, 6.2 points in the UK and 1.7 points in Poland in 2060. These differences are due to the projected volume of immigration and institutional setups, among other factors. For comparable volumes of immigration, future flows have largest impact in Germany and smallest in the UK.     

Implications of biased reporting: conservative and liberal accounting policies in oligopolies

We examine the effects of biased (conservative or liberal) reporting on product market competition. Cournot duopolists observe either firm-specific or industry-wide shocks and provide noisy reports subject to an exogenous mandated bias attributed to public policy. Given neutral prior beliefs, either a conservative bias or a liberal bias enhances overall reporting-system informativeness as measured by the reduction of uncertainty. Consistent with previously established effects in the information sharing literature regarding increases in informativeness, we show that expected industry profits and expected consumer surplus may gain or lose from bias, depending on whether the shocks are firm-specific or industry-wide and the degree of product competition. Expected social welfare, however, always increases in bias, irrespective of the source of uncertainty and product substitutability or complementarity. We next consider a setting where firms self-select whether to bias reports and characterize regions of potential conflict with a public policy that maximizes expected social welfare. Further results on the differential effects of conservative or liberal bias follow from relaxing the assumption of neutral prior beliefs.     

Errors and questionable judgments in analysts’ DCF models

We investigate the number of and reasons for errors and questionable judgments that sell-side equity analysts make in constructing and executing discounted cash flow (DCF) equity valuation models. For a sample of 120 DCF models detailed in reports issued by U.S. brokers in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that analysts make a median of three theory-related and/or execution errors and four questionable economic judgments per DCF. Recalculating analysts’ DCFs after correcting for major errors changes analysts’ mean valuations and target prices by between ?2 and 14 % per error. Based on face-to-face interviews with analysts and those who oversee them, we conclude that analysts’ DCF modeling behavior is semi-sophisticated in the sense that analysts genuinely make mistakes regarding certain aspects of correctly valuing equity but also respond rationally to the incentives they face, particularly the reality that they are not directly compensated for being textbook DCF correct.     

Minimum return guarantees,investment caps,and investment flexibility

We study the merits of capped retirement products with guarantee for investors who have the flexibility to dynamically adjust their investment strategy. All contracts under consideration are fairly priced such that the net profit of the provider is zero. Without the rider, an expected utility maximizing CRRA investor does not want an investment cap. Here, she commits herself to a strategy a priori. With the flexibility rider, the optimization problem changes and the optimal strategy is a response to an exogenously set price. A fair pricing then anticipates the optimal response of the investor. We show that the maximum expected utility of the investor can, for anticipated fairly priced products, be obtained for a finite cap. Thus, a capped product design can give a Pareto improvement to the otherwise uncapped contract version.     

Further examination of the demographic and social factors affecting risk aversion

In this paper we examine how social and demographic factors explain risk aversion. Specifically, we focus on how an individual’s place of residence effects his level of risk aversion. Israel is a natural experiment field for such an investigation since the majority of its population lives either in big or small cities, moshavs, or kibbutzim, where the last two forms of settlement being unique to Israel. The kibbutz follows the prototype of a collectivist culture; the moshav follows the prototype of an individualistic culture. This environment also allows us to reexamine the contradiction between the “cushion hypothesis” and previous findings regarding the risk aversion of Israeli kibbutz residents. In general, we find that the moshav respondents demonstrate the lowest level of risk aversion and the kibbutz (and the small city) respondents demonstrate the highest. However, further examination reveals that the risk aversions are domain specific. The urban residents of both big and small cites are similar to each other than they are to residents of the kibbutz and the moshav, who, in turn, are more similar to each other than they are to the urban residents. For example, kibbutz and moshav respondents are less risk averse in insurance and gambling, but more risk averse in driving and sport, compared to urban residents. Interestingly, on average, the respondents demonstrate the highest level of risk aversion for extreme sports and the lowest level of risk aversion for irresponsible driving.     

Does female management influence firm performance? Evidence from Luxembourg banks

In this study, we examine the relationship between the proportion of women in top management positions at banks and these institutions’ financial performance. Using prudential data from supervisory reporting for all credit institutions in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg from 1999 to 2013, we find a positive association between female management and firm performance. The economic effect is substantial: a 10 % increase in women in top management positions improves the bank’s future return on equity by more than 3 % p.a. Moreover, we show that this positive relationship is (i) almost twice as large during the global financial crisis than in stable market conditions and (ii) non-linear, with banks having 20–40 % female management being the most successful.     

Optimal introductory pricing for new financial services

Financial services institutions often provide special introductory prices to new customers who sign up for their services such as credit cards, credit monitoring services and online stock trading. Despite their prevalence, the decision to provide introductory prices to new customers entails challenges for decision makers. Providing small incentives may not perceptibly affect the adoption of the service while providing a large incentive leads to the loss of revenue and profits. As a result, the effectiveness of such activities on firm profitability remains largely unexplored. This study seeks to address this gap in the literature by exploring optimal introductory pricing of a financial service. Employing agent-based simulation experiments, we find that offering introductory discounts significantly increases a firm’s net present value (NPV) of profits. Moreover, the findings suggest the amount of discount and the duration of time that a new customer receives the discount are critical factors in determining the NPV of profits. The research and managerial implications are discussed.     

Analysis of Systemic Risk in the Insurance Industry

In this paper, we discuss the systemic relevance of the insurance sector. Systemic risk is defined as the propensity of a financial institution to be undercapitalised when the financial system as a whole is undercapitalised. By the law of large numbers, traditional lines of insurance with idiosyncratic non-catastrophic risks cannot be systemic. On the contrary, undiversified insurers specialised in activities whose insured risks are highly correlated with GDP are systemic. In the life insurance sector, some contractual clauses such as unhedged minimum guarantees and free options to surrender raise the chance of systemic relevance. On the contrary, life insurers satisfying the classic solvency capital requirements contribute to the liquidity of financial markets thanks to the long-termist approach of their portfolio management. Finally, using historical data in the U.S. on the contribution of different sectors to the aggregate volatility of the economy, we show that investment banking is almost twice as volatile as aggregate GDP, while insurance is one fifth as volatile as aggregate GDP. The insurance sector thus appears to be a stabilising force of the economy.     

A framework for understanding the evolution of relationship quality and the customer relationship development process

This paper attempts to develop and empirically test a conceptual model of relationship quality (RQ) in the financial sector from the perspective of the individual consumer (B2C). Based on a review of RQ research, the paper proposes a model of RQ from the customer perspective using the constructs most often examined in empirical RQ research (customer satisfaction, trust and commitment) and considers the relative importance of these dimensions within the stages of the relationship development process (RDP). A survey of 150 bank customers was undertaken in Egypt and the results tested using structural equation modelling. Respondents were selected on a convenience sampling basis and administered a questionnaire instrument for completion. The findings show that there is a strong relationship between the customer’s perceived relationship development phase and the perceived RQ. An important contribution of this paper lies in the alternative conceptualization of RQ as composed of three dynamic dimensions which are dependent on the RDP phase or stage. A second contribution is methodological and relates to the development of a modified scale to identify the relationship phases of customers. To the best of the researchers’ knowledge, these contributions are unique and have not been made previously to the body of knowledge on service relationship management.     

Foreclosure Delay and Consumer Credit Performance

The deep housing market recession from 2008 through 2010 was characterized by a steep rise in number of foreclosures. The average length of time from onset of delinquency through the end of the foreclosure process also expanded dramatically. Although most individuals undergoing foreclosure were experiencing serious financial stress, the extended foreclosure timelines enabled them to live in their homes without making mortgage payments until the end of the foreclosure process, thus providing temporary income and liquidity benefits from lower housing costs. This paper investigates the impact of extended foreclosure timelines on borrower performance with credit card debt. Our results indicate that a longer period of nonpayment of mortgage expenses results in higher cure rates on delinquent credit cards and reduced credit card balances. Thus, foreclosure process delays may have mitigated the impact of the economic downturn on credit card default—suggesting that improvement in credit card performance during the post-crisis period would likely be slowed by the removal of the temporary liquidity benefits as foreclosures reach completion.