The impact of socio-economic background on satisfaction: evidence for policy-makers

Consumer satisfaction with utility services has received increased attention from firms, consumer associations, regulators and governments since the 1990s. Evidence is mounting that consumers in specific socio-economic groups express lower satisfaction levels than their peers, at least, in some utility markets. Seeing this as part of their remit to protect consumer welfare, governments and international organizations are exploring possible demand-side policy responses with the intention of ameliorating lower satisfaction levels of these groups of consumers. However, more information on the precise relationships between satisfaction and consumers’ socio-economic background is required if policy is to be proportional and effective. This paper provides new empirical knowledge on this topic by contrasting consumers’ stated and revealed preferences for five utility services (electricity, gas, fixed and cellular telephony and Internet) across twelve European countries. We find strong evidence that consumers’ socio-economic characteristics matter: consumers with lower levels of education, the elderly and those not employed exhibit particular expenditure patterns on, and lower satisfaction levels with, some utility services. However, this relationship is uneven and depends on the socio-economic category and service in question. We conclude by highlighting five findings which may be of use to policy-makers when considering whether demand-side regulatory policies are required     

Human Capital Spillovers and Regional Development

This paper introduces technological interdependence into the theoretical framework of Gennaioli et al. (Quarterly Journal of Economics 2013; 128 : 105–164). This extension leads to an expression for regional development with spatial effects that motivates the incorporation of the geographical dimension into their newly constructed database and empirical analysis. Our estimation results corroborate both the necessity of accounting for the presence of spatial dependence to study the determinants of regional income per capita and the importance of educational attainment in explaining regional development differences. Furthermore, we provide evidence that human capital generates positive spatial spillovers. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Some considerations about “Forecasting aggregates and disaggregates with common features”

Espasa and Mayo provide consistent forecasts for an aggregate economic indicator and its basic components as well as for useful sub-aggregates. To do so, they develop a procedure based on single-equation models that includes the restrictions arisen from the fact that some components share common features. The classification by common features provides a disaggregation map useful in several applications. We discuss their classification procedure and suggest some issues that should be taken into account when designing an algorithm to identify subsets of series that share one common trend.     

Improving emergency plans management with SAGA

Emergency plans are the tangible result of the preparedness activities of the emergency management lifecycle. In many countries, public service organizations have the legal obligation to develop and maintain emergency plans covering all possible hazards relative to their areas of operation. However, little support is provided to planners in the development and use of plans. Often, advances in software technology have not been exploited, and plans remain as text documents whose accessibility is very limited. In this paper, we advocate for the definition and implementation of plan management processes as the first step to better produce and manage emergency plans. The main contribution of our work is to raise the need for IT-enabled planning environments, either at the national or organization-specific levels, which can lead to more uniform plans that are easier to evaluate and share, with support to stakeholders other than responders, among other advantages. To illustrate our proposal, we introduce SAGA, a framework that supports the full lifecycle of emergency plan management. SAGA provides all the actors involved in plan management with a number of tools to support all the stages of the plan lifecycle. We outline the architecture of the system, and show with a case study how planning processes can benefit from a system like SAGA.     

Moral standards in managerial decisions: In search of a comprehensive theoretical framework

Although ethical decision‐making theory has evolved over the years, within the field of management, research still revolves around James Rest’s (1986) four‐step framework, dominated by a positivist epistemology and a quantitative methodology. Given that currently there is a call for a theoretical, epistemological, and methodological renovation for the enlargement and enrichment of knowledge about how decisions are morally made in organizations, this paper has a double aim. First, by showing the models’ main flaws and limitations, it critically assesses the prominent theoretical models of Rest, Trevino, and Jones. Then, for decision making in organizations, the paper aims to posit a fresh moral theory that addresses the phenomenon from a comprehensive epistemological perspective. To do so, it steps back from those prominent models in order to review John Dewey’s “theory of moral life.” At the core of the proposed comprehensive theoretical framework are Dewey’s concepts of a “moral standard” and “valuation.” Finally, the paper shows how the Dewey‐based framework can both overcome the flaws and limitations that are identified in those prominent models and can enrich empirical research, therefore contributing to developing as a whole the ethical decision‐making field.     

The role of FDI in structural change: Evidence from Mexico

Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Mexico are substantial and play an important role in the Mexican economy since the mid-1990s. These investments reflect the activities of multinational firms that shape to some extent the economic landscape and sectoral structure in this host country. We illustrate that there is considerable variation in the amounts of FDI and structural change within the country and across time. Based on this, the paper's main purpose is to analyse whether there is a significant impact of FDI on structural change. We conduct an empirical analysis covering the period 2006–16. We use the fixed-effects estimator where the unit of observation is a Mexican state for which we calculate structural change from the reallocation of labour between sectors. The results suggest that (if any) there is a positive effect from FDI on growth-enhancing structural change. This effect depends critically on the lag structure of FDI. Moreover, there is some evidence that the positive effect (a) arises from FDI flows in the industry sector and (b) is present for medium and low-skilled labour reallocation.     

Optimal investment under multi-factor stochastic volatility

We consider a model for multivariate intertemporal portfolio choice in complete and incomplete markets with a multi-factor stochastic covariance matrix of asset returns. The optimal investment strategies are derived in closed form. We estimate the model parameters and illustrate the optimal investment based on two stock indices: S&P500 and DAX. It is also shown that the model satisfies several stylized facts well known in the literature. We analyse the welfare losses due to suboptimal investment strategies and we find that investors who invest myopically, ignore derivative assets, model volatility by one factor and ignore stochastic covariance between asset returns can incur significant welfare losses.     

A multivariate stochastic volatility model with applications in the foreign exchange market

The main objective of this paper is to study the behavior of a daily calibration of a multivariate stochastic volatility model, namely the principal component stochastic volatility (PCSV) model, to market data of plain vanilla options on foreign exchange rates. To this end, a general setting describing a foreign exchange market is introduced. Two adequate models—PCSV and a simpler multivariate Heston model—are adjusted to suit the foreign exchange setting. For both models, characteristic functions are found which allow for an almost instantaneous calculation of option prices using Fourier techniques. After presenting the general calibration procedure, both the multivariate Heston and the PCSV models are calibrated to a time series of option data on three exchange rates—USD-SEK, EUR-SEK, and EUR-USD—spanning more than 11 years. Finally, the benefits of the PCSV model which we find to be superior to the multivariate extension of the Heston model in replicating the dynamics of these options are highlighted.     

Systemic Bank Risk in Brazil: A Comprehensive Simulation of Correlated Market, Credit, Sovereign and Inter-Bank Risks

In this study we present a comprehensive forward‐looking portfolio simulation methodology for assessing the correlated impacts of market risk, private sector and Sovereign credit risk, and inter‐bank default risk. In order to produce better integrated risk assessment for banks and systemic risk assessments for financial systems, we argue that reasonably detailed modeling of bank asset and liability structures, loan portfolio credit quality, and loan concentrations by sector, region and type, as well as a number of financial and economic environment risk drivers, is required. Sovereign and inter‐bank default risks are increasingly important in the current economic environment and their inclusion is an important model extension. This extended model is demonstrated through an application to both individual Brazilian banks (i.e., 28 of the largest banks) and groups of banks (i.e., the Brazilian banking system) as of December 2004. When omitting Sovereign risk, our analysis indicates that none of the banks face significant default risk over a 1‐year horizon. This low default risk stems primarily from the large amount of government securities held by Brazilian banks, but also reflects the banks' adequate capitalizations and extraordinarily high interest rate spreads. We note that none of the banks which we modeled failed during the very stressful 2007‐2008 period, consistent with our results. Our results also show that a commonly used approach of aggregating all banks into one single bank, for purposes of undertaking a systemic banking system risk assessment, results in a misestimate of both the probability and the cost of systemic banking system failures. Once Sovereign risk is considered and losses in the market value of government securities reach 10% (or higher), we find that several banks could fail during the same time period. These results demonstrate the well known risk of concentrated lending to a borrower, or type of borrower, which has a non‐zero probability of default (e.g., the Government of Brazil). Our analysis also indicates that, in the event of a Sovereign default, the Government of Brazil would face constrained debt management alternatives. To the best of our knowledge no one else has put forward a systematic methodology for assessing bank asset, liability, loan portfolio structure and correlated market and credit (private sector, Sovereign, and inter‐bank) default risk for banks and banking systems. We conclude that such forward‐looking risk assessment methodologies for assessing multiple correlated risks, combined with the targeted collection of specific types of data on bank portfolios, have the potential to better quantify overall bank and banking system risk levels, which can assist bank management, bank regulators, Sovereigns, rating agencies, and investors to make better informed and proactive risk management and investment decisions.     

Upstream or downstream in the value chain?

Companies in the natural resources industry (e.g., mining, timber, farming and fishery) face the dilemma of whether to focus upstream or downstream in the value chain. The literature provides arguments and empirical evidence for either position. This paper presents an analytical framework based on the neoclassical theory of the firm, for which the best competitive advantage is the one that maximizes production efficiency. It serves to formulate an optimization model for the sawmill industry, and draws the data from the largest sawmilling company in the southern hemisphere. Although one conclusion is that the company should concentrate on the upstream activities, such conclusion is not applicable to other firms, since the analysis of the upstream-downstream dilemma must focus on the individual capabilities of each firm.