The asymmetry of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting

In forecasting a time series, one may be asked to communicate the likely distribution of the future actual value, often expressed as a confidence interval. Whilst the accuracy (calibration) of these intervals has dominated most studies to date, this paper is concerned with other possible characteristics of the intervals. It reports a study in which the prevalence and determinants of the symmetry of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting was examined. Most prior work has assumed that this interval is symmetrically placed around the forecast. However, this study shows that people generally estimate asymmetric confidence intervals where the forecast is not the midpoint of the estimated interval. Many of these intervals are grossly asymmetric. Results indicate that the placement of the forecast in relation to the last actual value of a time series is a major determinant of the direction and size of the asymmetry.     

Framing Work Through a Socio-technical Ensemble: The Case of Butler Co.

The paper argues for conceptualizing technology as a socio-technical ensemble which emerges from the socio-political context of the organization. This perspective is used to inform a case study carried out within a consumer goods company, where the focus is upon the configuration of work and technology associated with the job of sales representative. It is argued that the acquiescence and compliance of the sales representatives are to be understood primarily on the basis of senior management's effective deployment of its power resource through 'enacting the environment', the configuration and utilization of the ensemble, and its employment strategy. 'Closure' and 'stabilization' had occurred, and the ensemble was operating on a number of levels.     

In pursuit of quality - the volume control for fabric goods is getting out of hand

Abstract The paper discusses the application of quality control in determining the make-up of textile goods as a result of the increase in production rates designed to meet the consumer demand for change. The downsizing and reskilling of manufacturing plants, coupled with the outsourcing and use of unskilled labour in the international marketplace, is replacing subjective skills. The impact of management practices associated with Quick Response, Just-in-Time and BS EN ISO 9000 are affecting the response rate of the manufacturer and the retailer to the consumer. In assessing suitability, technology is also progressively taking over in the prediction of the end use of a cloth and thus in the determination of production runs. The extent to which the unseen hand of the FAST and Kawabata systems of measurement are used most effectively is discussed.     

Promoting justice by treating people unequally: an experimental study

Which inequalities among individuals are considered unjust? This paper reports the results of an experiment designed to study distributive choices dealing with arbitrarily unequal initial endowments. In a three-person distribution problem where subjects either know or do not know their endowments, we find impartial behavior to be a stable pattern. Subjects either compensate for initial inequalities fully or not at all in both conditions, and they do so more often when they do not know their endowment than when they know it. Moreover, the type and the size of the good to be distributed also affect the frequency of impartial behavior.     

Cigarette pack and advertising displays at point of purchase: community demand for restrictions

Tobacco promotion influences tobacco consumption. Traditional forms of tobacco promotion have been heavily restricted in response to the harmful effects of tobacco. Tobacco displays at the point of purchase are increasingly important as a means of communicating brand imagery for the tobacco industry, especially when advertising is restricted at these points. Previous research has demonstrated that children exposed to tobacco advertising at the point of purchase have inflated perceptions of availability, use and popularity of tobacco. Internationally, laws are being debated and implemented to prohibit or restrict the display of tobacco at the point of purchase or put tobacco out of sight. Such measures would reduce tobacco product exposure and, hence, tobacco marketing among youth and the community. In South Australia, a ban on all cigarette advertising at the point of purchase was introduced in 2005. This study was designed to assess community support for restrictions on cigarette displays and advertising at the point of purchase. A telephone survey was conducted with a random sample of 2026 South Australian adults (aged 18 years and over) in July 2005. Overall, 63% of the community approved of a hypothetical total ban on cigarette displays at the point of purchase, with over three‐quarters believing this should happen in the next 12 months. A further 24% believed that cigarette displays should be restricted and 82% would approve of a ban on displays in stores that sell confectionary. Only 7% of adult smokers reported making their decision about the brand of cigarettes to buy at the point of purchase and 90% made their decision before they even entered the shop. The results strengthen arguments that cigarette displays are not necessary to maintain brand loyalty or to encourage brand switching of established smokers. Instead, the results make arguments more credible that cigarette displays normalize and promote smoking among young people and may also promote unplanned purchase or increased consumption among less frequent smokers or former smokers. Placing cigarettes out of sight would be unlikely to impact on brand choice for most smokers, who have already made up their mind before they enter the store.     

Tantra as episteme: A pedagogy of the future

In the face of the contemporary university's failure to escape from economic rationality and therefore create environments conducive to positive futures an alternative model of university is proposed. This is based on an episteme rooted in Tantra, a world view that allows for a multi-layering of discourse to occur in order to greatly extend the university's mandate as a cultural catalyst for future generations. It is argured that Tantra, which is situated in a resurgent indigenous consciousness, is both ancient and modern possessing as it does the deep wisdoms of this episteme while being energised with a liberatory ethic aimed at physical, social and spiritual emancipation from exploitative ideologies.     

The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility

This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural changes in the volatility process. We employ generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) specifications, which describe output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility; this favors the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics. Moreover, the evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one-time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting in 1982 or 1984. That is, the integrated GARCH effect proves spurious. Finally, a joint test of a trend change and a one-time shift in the volatility process finds that the one-time shift dominates.     

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast U.S. Home Sales in a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Framework

This article uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting U.S. home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, price of homes, mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict U.S. home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.