A choice modelling case study on climate change involving two-way interactions

Choice Modelling applications can be designed to estimate main effects only or multiple-way interactions between attributes. It has been reported that higher order effects generally account for less than 10% of the choice explanation. Nevertheless, the amount of applications testing for interactions among attributes in environmental valuation is very limited. This paper reports a Choice Modelling exercise valuing climate change impacts on plant cover, land erosion and fire risk in Spanish shrublands. Two out of three two-way interactions were found significant and to account for more than 20% of the choice model explanation. Their contribution to the log-likelihood value was comparable to the one of the main effects variables. Moreover, accounting for second order interactions significantly altered the estimates of the implicit prices of attributes compared to the main effects specifications.     

The Limits of Discipline: Ownership and Hard Budget Constraints in the Transition Economies

The existing literature on soft budget constraints suggests that firms may be subsidized for political reasons or because of the creditors' desire to recover a part of the sunk cost invested in an earlier period. In all these models hard budget constraints are viewed as being, in principle, capable of inducing the necessary restructuring behaviour on the level of the firm. This paper argues that the imposition of financial discipline is not sufficient to remedy ownership and governance-related deficiencies of corporate performance. Using evidence from the post-communist transition economies, the paper shows that a policy of hard budget constraints cannot induce successful revenue restructuring, which requires entrepreneurial incentives inherent in certain ownership types (most notably, outside investors). The paper also shows that the policy of hard budget constraints falters when state firms, because of inferior revenue performance and less willingness to meet payment obligations, continue to pose a higher credit risk than privatized firms. The brunt of state firms' lower creditworthiness falls on state creditors. But the 'softness' of these creditors, while harmful in many ways, is not necessarily irrational, if it prevents the demise of firms that are in principle capable of successful restructuring through ownership changes.     

Schooling choices: Preferences, discount rates, and rates of return

This paper develops an empirical model to identify the structural parameters of schooling preferences and human capital production. Our model distinguishes between consumption and investment motives with regard to schooling. The results show that both motives matter. Preferences for schooling vary with social background and ability. Children from poorer social backgrounds and of lower ability have a lower preference for schooling. The discount rate that enters the net value of lifetime income varies with social background as well. The marginal rate of return to schooling decreases with ability and schooling. On average the marginal rate of return is 7.3 per cent, which can be contrasted with a `Mincerian' rate of return equal to 4.8 per cent. This indicates that the usual OLS estimate underestimates the true rate of return. First version received: November 1997/Final version received: February 1999     

ETUDE DES FACTEURS CONTINGENTS DU TAUX DE REMBOURSEMENT AU SEIN D'UNE INSTITUTION DE, MICROFINANCE: LE CAS DU TOGO

RESUME ** :  Parmi les facteurs contingents du taux de remboursement des microcrédits, la responsabilité solidaire des emprunteurs est peu analysée dans les études empiriques. Grâce à la constitution d'une base de données originale, cet article s'attache à estimer l'impact des facteurs contingents du taux de remboursement, dont la forme du prêt. Les résultats dégagés font apparaître que, d'une part, dans la catégorie des prêts remboursés dans les délais, les prêts individuels offrent un meilleur taux de recouvrement mais aussi, d'autre part, que cet effet s'estompe dès lors que sont incorporés les remboursements tardifs. Parmi les autres facteurs contingents du taux de remboursement, on dénombre principalement la distance entre le lieu de résidence des clients et le siège de l'institution et l'objet du crédit.     

Boekbesprekingen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Self‐Financing Trading Strategies for Sliding, Rolling‐Horizon, and Consol Bonds

The time evolution of a sliding bond is studied in discrete‐ and continuous‐time setups. By definition, a sliding bond represents the price process of a discount bond with a fixed time to maturity. Examples of measure‐valued trading strategies (introduced by Bj"ork et al. 1997a, 1997b) which are based on the price process of a sliding bond are discussed. In particular, a self‐financing strategy that involves holding at any time one unit of a sliding bond is examined (the wealth process of this strategy is referred to as the rolling‐horizon bond). In contrast to the sliding bond, which does not represent a tradable security, the rolling‐horizon bond (or the rolling‐consol bond) may play the role of a fixed‐income security with infinite lifespan in portfolio management problems.     

Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison

This paper compares impulse responses to monetary policy shocks in the euro area countries before the EMU and in the New Member States (NMS) from central–eastern Europe. We mitigate the small‐sample problem, which is especially acute for the NMS, by using a Bayesian estimation that combines information across countries. The impulse responses in the NMS are broadly similar to those in the euro area countries. There is some evidence that in the NMS, which have had higher and more volatile inflation, the Phillips curve is steeper than in the euro area countries. This finding is consistent with economic theory. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.