How loan portfolio diversification affects risk, efficiency and capitalization: A managerial behavior model for Austrian banks

The aim of this paper is to analyze how diversification of banks across size and industry affects risk, cost and profit efficiency, and bank capitalization for large Austrian commercial banks over the years 1997–2003. Employing a unique dataset, provided by the Austrian Central Bank, we test for several different types of managerial hypotheses, formalized according to a modified version of the Berger and DeYoung model [Berger, A.N., DeYoung, R., 1997. Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks. Journal of Banking and Finance 21, 849–870]. We find that, although diversification negatively affects cost efficiency, it increases profit efficiency and reduces banks’ realized risk. Finally, diversification seems to have a positive impact on banks’ capitalization.     

Understanding Brazilian companies' foreign exchange exposure

The paper analyzes the exchange rate exposure of a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies from 1999 to 2009. The results confirm the importance of using nonlinear models to address companies' exchange rate exposure. The results indicate that when compared to the linear model commonly used in literature, the nonlinear model leads to an increase in the number of firms exposed to exchange rate fluctuations, which allows a more accurate analysis of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the value of firms. In addition, the paper shows that exporters and companies that hold foreign currency denominated debt are more likely to be exposed to exchange rate fluctuations and that the nonlinearity of companies' foreign exchange exposure is associated with the use of foreign currency derivatives.     

Corporate financial policies and the exchange rate regime: Evidence from Brazil

This paper analyzes the relationship between companies' financial policies and the exchange rate regime for a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies from 1996 to 2006. The adoption of a floating exchange rate regime is shown to improve the match between the currency composition of companies' assets and liabilities. The paper also shows that this reduction in companies' currency mismatches is more pronounced for companies in the highest quantile of foreign exposure; therefore the results confirm that the exchange rate regime plays an important role in the determination of companies' foreign vulnerability.     

The Effect of House Prices on Household Consumption in Italy

This paper studies the effect of a change in real estate wealth on the consumption behaviour of Italian households, using the Bank of Italy’s Survey of Household Income and Wealth dataset. We relate annual household consumption to capital gains in housing, controlling for characteristics such as age. In line with the empirical predictions of our model, we find the oldest households—which are less affected by the higher costs of future rent—to be the most affected by increases in real net housing wealth. Younger households, on the other hand, are not significantly affected in their consumption decisions by house price increases. We also take into account the fact that benefiting from capital gains is conditional on owning housing wealth and estimate the different impacts of house price changes on the savings behaviours of both homeowners and renters. Our estimates suggest that house price increases raise consumption not only for homeowners but also for renters.     

What is the Chance of Yuan Revaluation?

From a Chinese perspective, chances of any change in the Yuan exchange rate look pretty slim. If you were an official in Beijing, would you stick your neck out even recommending this idea? If the status quo looks fairly acceptable, and it is ‘stability oriented’ (a very Chinese preference), why go rocking the boat? You certainly do not make any changes just because Japan or the US tell you to. And financial markets are not that persuasive – after all they wanted a devaluation only a short while ago. In this article, Vanessa Rossi and Simon Knapp assess the likelihood of a Yuan revaluation and its implications for the economic outlook.     

Ancora sul processo stocastico nascite-morti

Si determinano direttamente le probabilità di stato del processo nascite-morti cumulativo per ricorrenza. Si dà un suggerimento per il calcolo e si confrontano i risultati con quanto già ricavato da D. G. Kendall.     

Bayesian analysis of dichotomous quantal response models

Qualitative response models (QRM's) are analyzed from the Bayesian point of view, using diffuse and informative prior distributions. Exact finite-sample Bayesian and large-sample Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimation results are compared. In addition, the paper provides: (1) plots and discussion of the properties of likelihood functions for QRM's, (2) posterior distributions for logit models' derivatives and elasticities, (3) Bayesian prediction procedures for QRM's, (4) new estimates for the median and other fractiles of the logistic distribution, (5) posterior odds ratios for model selection problems, and (6) comparisons of two alternative Monte Carlo numerical integration procedures. It is concluded that asymptotic approximations are not accurate for small-to moderate-sized samples even when only a single input variable is used, and that operational Bayesian methods are available for providing both exact small-sample and large-sample approximate inferences for DRM's.