Coordinating the accumulation of physical and human capital in different institutional settings

This paper presents an out-of-equilibrium model to explain differences in the capacity to absorb new skill-biased technologies. The usual mainstream viewpoint focusing only on the role of labour markets will be re-examined in a context characterized by a sequential structure of both the processes of production and the skill formation, whose interaction brings about coordination failures harming the viability of the innovation process. Our out-of-equilibrium approach allows us to consider the more general interplay between stylized labour and product market characteristics, on the one hand, and educational policies, on the other hand. The robust results of the simulations show that educational policies appear to be important in restoring the required coordination both in rigid and in flexible systems, but for different reasons. In the former case, educational policies financed by taxation allow the system to escape a low-productivity final equilibrium. In the latter case, they contrast the financial constraint associated with a large decrease in the unskilled wage. Altogether, a moderate degree of rigidity seems to be the most appropriate institutional environment to reach the targets of viability and of a full exploitation of the technological potential.     

The Emergence of Non-monetary Means of Payment in the Russian Economy

The widespread use of non-cash payments in Russia is the result of a complex bundle of factors: tax evasion, established networks of enterprises and policy-induced causes. By use of non-monetary payments, agents have relaxed their liquidity constraints, but they still lack the financial resources needed to undertake investment and restructuring. Banks' credit provision is based on criteria other than the profitability of the recipient of the funds. The interest rate, coupled with the restructuring of the banking sector, could operate as an effective lever that may lead to a more economically consistent management of liquidity and could also reduce capital flight.     

Dynamic factor model with infinite‐dimensional factor space: Forecasting

The paper compares the pseudo real‐time forecasting performance of three dynamic factor models: (i) the standard principal component model introduced by Stock and Watson in 2002; (ii) the model based on generalized principal components, introduced by Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin in 2005; (iii) the model recently proposed by Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Zaffaroni in 2015. We employ a large monthly dataset of macroeconomic and financial time series for the US economy, which includes the Great Moderation, the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery (an update of the so‐called Stock and Watson dataset). Using a rolling window for estimation and prediction, we find that model (iii) significantly outperforms models (i) and (ii) in the Great Moderation period for both industrial production and inflation, and that model (iii) is also the best method for inflation over the full sample. However, model (iii) is outperformed by models (ii) and (i) over the full sample for industrial production.     

Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage

This article analyzes announcement effects of the new statutory minimum wage on employment expectations and uncertainties in Germany. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach applied to the IAB Establishment Panel, employers affected by the minimum wage show an increased employment uncertainty and a 0.9% points drop in their expected employment growth. Using the same identification strategy with data from 2015, the treatment effect on actual employment growth of affected employers matches the employers' expectation. Hence, an analysis of employer expectations seems to be promising to detect employment effects of policy changes before they come into force.     

Deep and Proximate Determinants of the World Income Distribution

This paper studies the deep and proximate determinants of the evolution of the cross-country distribution of GDP per worker in the period 1960–2008 by a novel method based on an information criterion. We find that countries of our sample follow three distinctive growth regimes identified by two deep determinants, namely life expectancy at birth in 1960 and the share of Catholics in 1965, and that each regime is characterized by non-linearities. Growth regimes appear to be the main cause of the increased inequality and polarization, while technological catch-up, proxied by the initial level of GDP per worker, acts in the opposite direction. Finally, human capital marginally reduces polarization, while investment rates and employment growth have no distributional effect.     

Diversification for general copula dependence

We generalize the extreme value analysis for Archimedean copulas (see Alink , Löwe and Wüthrich , 2003) to the non-Archimedean case: Assume we have d ≥2 exchangeable and continuously distributed risks X ₁,…, X _d . Under appropriate assumptions there is a constant q _d such that, for all large u , we have . The constant q _d describes the asymptotic dependence structure. Typically, q _d will depend on more aspects of this dependence structure than the well-known tail dependence coefficient.     

IAMOT and Education: Defining a Technology and Innovation Management (TIM) Body-of-Knowledge (BoK) for graduate education (TIM BoK)

Whether it is called Management of Technology and Innovation (MOTI), Management of Technology (MOT), Engineering Technology Management (ETM) or Technology and Innovation Management (TIM), the TIM field is rapidly growing and diverse. This diversity is built upon disparate university locations of TIM programs; TIM’s emerging nature, its wide appeal as well as unique researcher and practitioner viewpoints. This has created a plethora of education materials, benchmark programs and pedagogical thought. Yet the field is growing so rapidly that no single source has yet been established which clearly identifies which topics and educational materials represents its basic Body of Knowledge (BoK). If this is so, then there is cause for concern.We review TIM pedagogy studies, TIM research, and the economic realities that initiated and continue to demand TIM education for managers. We leverage the five-year body of knowledge development activities of the International Association for the Management of Technology (IAMOT) education committee. We then develop a TIM BoK topic list and survey stakeholders that include: academics, industrial professionals and government policy makers. We found that there is a need for and convergence on a comprehensive TIM BoK source. The result is a TIM BoK source document that can be utilized to improve and monitor TIM educational programs around the world.     

Responsive pricing

We study the efficiency property of responsive pricing, a scheme that proposes to increase prices as a function of the level of capacity utilization in environments where traditional allocation schemes (e.g. competitive markets, non-linear pricing) cannot be implemented in practice. We show that although responsive pricing implements allocations that are arbitrarily close to full capacity utilization (no wasted capacity and no excess demand), these allocations are not always efficient. We identify conditions under which efficiency occurs and discuss implications for the use of responsive pricing. We would like to thank seminar participants at the LSE, Venezia, Toulouse, and Copenhagen as well as Piero Gottardi, Karel Mertens, Marco Ottaviani, Markus Poschke, Karl Schlag, and Sanne Zwart for useful comments.