Anomalies: Is it the Economy?

There is still no consensus on whether small firm or value stock anomalies exist. We examine the last half of the 20th century and apply a six‐factor macroeconomic model to test for the presence of these abnormal returns. Using four proxies for value, we find that detecting this anomaly is sensitive to choice of proxy, the magnitude of the abnormal returns varies over time, and the anomaly does not persist through time. Additional tests provide evidence that abnormal returns for small, value‐oriented, and growth‐oriented firms differ significantly under restrictive versus expansive monetary policy regimes.     

Technological paradigms,patterns of learning and development: An introductory roadmap

This paper presents an evolutionary microeconomic theory of innovation and production and discusses its implications for development theory. Using the notions of technological paradigm and trajectory, it develops an alternative view of firm behavior and learning. It is shown then how these are embedded in broader national systems of innovation which account for persistent differences in technological cappacities between countries. Finally, this bottom-up evolutionary analysis is linked with an institutional top-down approach, and the potential fruitfulness of this dialogue is demonstrated.We thank the discussants and participants at the workshop on Technology and Competitiveness in Developing Countries, Venice, 26/11/93, for their useful comments.The research leading to this work has benefited at various stages from the support of the Italian National Research Council (CNR, Progetto Strategico Combiamento Technologico e Crescita Economica) and of the International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA, Austria).     

Brand-anchored discrete choice experiment (BDCE) vs. direct attribute rating (DAR): An empirical comparison of predictive validity

The image of a brand provides a key driver of brand equity. To build and control a strong brand image though, brand managers require a valid procedure to measure it. This article empirically compares the predictive validity of two measurement techniques to assess brand image: First, a brand-anchored discrete choice experiment (BDCE) which is based on a brand-anchored conjoint approach where brands serve as the levels for any attribute and which was originally introduced as ranting-based approach by Louviere and Johnson Journal of Retailing, 66, 359–382 (1990) and further extended to a BDCE by Eckert et al. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 29, 256–264 (2012). Second, a direct attribute rating (DAR) approach which is commonly used for commercial applications of brand image measurement. An empirical study using a representative sample of the German beer market shows that BDCE shows significantly higher levels of predictive validity (i.e., higher correlations with the actual market shares of the brands under investigation) than the widely used DAR method.     

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A methodology for science and technology planning based upon economic scenarios and Delphi techniques : The case of Mexican agroindustry

A methodology for S & T planning using Delphi panels, matrix analysis, and linear programming techniques is described. It is applied to Mexican agroindustry, thus defining priority areas, overall strategies, and policy instruments. The implications of this methodology for planning processes in underdeveloped countries are discussed.     

Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage

This article analyzes announcement effects of the new statutory minimum wage on employment expectations and uncertainties in Germany. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach applied to the IAB Establishment Panel, employers affected by the minimum wage show an increased employment uncertainty and a 0.9% points drop in their expected employment growth. Using the same identification strategy with data from 2015, the treatment effect on actual employment growth of affected employers matches the employers' expectation. Hence, an analysis of employer expectations seems to be promising to detect employment effects of policy changes before they come into force.     

A General Approach to Rational Learning in Games

This paper provides a general framework for analysing rational learning in strategic situations in which the players have private priors and private information. The author analyses the behaviour of Bayesian rational players both in a repeated game and in a recurrent game when they are uncertain about opponents' behaviour and the game they are playing. The aim of the paper is to explain how Bayesian rational agents learn by playing and to characterize the outcome of this learning process. By studying the concept of 'conjectural equilibrium' and analysing the process of convergence of players' behaviour, the roles played by the notions of merging and of consistency are demonstrated.