Tracking emerging technologies in energy research: Toward a roadmap for sustainable energy

Science and technology for renewable and sustainable energy are indispensable for our future society and economics. To meet the goal of sustainable energy development, there is a growing body of research efforts world wide. The planner of energy research has to grasp the broader coverage of scientific and technological research, and make decisions on effective investment in promising and emerging technologies especially under circumstances of limited resources. In this paper, we track emerging research domains in energy research by using citation network analysis. Our analysis confirms that the fuel cell and solar cell are rapidly growing domains in energy research. We further investigate the detailed structure of these two domains by clustering publications in these domains. Each citation cluster has characteristic research topics, and there is a variety of growth trends among the clusters. By using citation network analysis, we can track emerging research domains among a pile of publications efficiently and effectively.     

Technological diversification, complementary assets, and performance

Most research on technological diversification or complementary assets has been carried out in isolation when assessing their effects on performance. In this study, we posit that technological diversification and performance are positively linked and that specialized complementary assets have a moderating effect on this relationship. This study also finds that different specialized complementary assets have distinctive moderating effects on the relationship between technological diversification and performance. We conclude that maintaining a coherent relationship between technological diversification and specialized complementary assets give firms generates competitive advantage.     

Infrastructural change and secular economic development

Long-term economic development is determined by changes to the infrastructure, especially material and non-material infrastructural networks that link agents in different locations. The infrastructure consists of the slowly changing, collective arena that supports production, exchange, and consumption, such as the built environment, transport networks, and institutions. In the short run the infrastructure can be regarded as fixed. Changes to the infrastructure are under normal conditions small enough to be disregarded by producers and consumers. With the creation of a critical link of a network, there will however be a revolutionary restructuring of the arena. Critical links are here defined as additions to infrastructural networks that create opportunities for new information and transport flows between previously unconnected regions. Such a revolutionary restructuring of infrastructural networks has been called a logistical revolution. Certain institutional pre-conditions are necessary for a logistical revolution, while the creation of a critical link is both a necessary and a sufficient condition. This paper discusses the three logistical revolutions that occurred in the 13th century, around 1600, and in the 19th century, which each had crucial similarities with the current “information revolution.”     

Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007-2020

By using socio-technical scenarios, we investigate how present policy choices may affect the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden. One important choice for policy lies in the balance between general tax exemptions stimulating the market for alternative fuels, and funding of research and development more directly promoting new technology. The implications of this choice are illustrated with four diverging development paths until 2020. In the market-oriented scenarios, we illustrate consequences of breaking the dominance of entrenched technologies and demonstrating a growing market potential for alternatives, but also the risks with a large focus on first generation renewable fuels. In the technology-oriented scenarios, we point out the value of keeping variety among niches in this stage of the transition. In conclusion, if policy is implemented without taking the dynamic forces within the system into account, there is a risk that any measure leads the system into a dead end. But if policy strives to balance the development in different parts of the technological system while making use of various prevailing forces of change, a multitude of different efforts can contribute to the development of a more sustainable transport system.     

Foresight and innovation in the context of industrial clusters: The case of some Italian districts

The “territory” is widely recognized in the literature on business strategy as a critical driver of industrial competitiveness (see, as an example, Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations). The generation and exploitation of new knowledge, both tacit and explicit, through the process of socialization, articulation, combination and internalization (see Nonaka and Takeuchi, The Knowledge-Creating Company) is essential to enable innovation of processes and products of “local” firms.Our recent Foresight exercises in the metal working and machinery district of Lecco and in the silk district of Como show that Foresight can play an important role in creating and exploiting new knowledge, and that different methodologies can be more or less effective to this aim.Critical technology list and interactive workshops, with the participation of entrepreneurs of SMEs and technologists, are more suited to foster the transfer of technologies that have overcome the initial stage of the life cycle and that have been already applied in other sectors. However, when radical innovations are needed in order to face the challenges posed by global competition, other methodologies, as Scenarios, are more appropriate. Even if these approaches are complex and time and resource consuming, they may be very effective in actively involving the most relevant private and public stakeholders of a district, and in making them to envisage the long term future of the economic, social, and cultural structure of their district. In this way Foresight drives the small entrepreneurs, the district stakeholders and the medium and large size firms to play the critical roles of Nonaka and Takeuchi's “frontline employees”, “senior managers” and “middle managers” in their “knowledge creating company”: the first ones grasp what the district is; the second ones build the vision of what it ought to be; the third ones, serve as a bridge between the future and the present.     

Assessing the employment effects of the German welfare reform – an integrated CGE-microsimulation approach

The purpose of this article is to quantify the employment effects of the recent German welfare reform. The key element of this reform was to merge the coexisting transfer systems Social Assistance (SA) and Unemployment Assistance (UA) into one unified benefit (Arbeitslosengeld II – ALG II). We also consider a second reform scenario that is intended to further improve the labour supply incentives of low-skilled workers. Our methodological contribution is to use an integrated CGE-microsimulation model. In adopting such an approach, we are able to combine the advantages of microsimulation studies by accounting for the large amount of heterogeneity in terms of households’ preferences and budget constraints with the advantages of an applied general equilibrium model. The latter permits us to identify potential general equilibrium repercussions through changes in wages and unemployment. The simulations indicate that the introduction of ALG II results in a negligible increase in employment of only 45?000 individuals. In contrast, a cut in benefit levels combined with a decrease in transfer withdrawal is shown to produce somewhat larger employment effects of about 190?000 individuals.     

Comparing technological hype cycles: Towards a theory

The notion of ‘hype’ is widely used and represents a tempting way to characterize developments in technological fields. The term appears in business as well as in academic domains. Consultancy firms offer technological hype cycle models to determine the state of development of technological fields in order to facilitate strategic investment decisions. In Science, Technology and Innovation Studies the concept of hype is considered in studies on the dynamics of expectations in innovation processes, which focuses on the performative force of expectations. What is still lacking is a theory of hype patterns that is able to explain the different shapes of hype cycles in different contexts. In this paper we take a first step towards closing this gap by studying and comparing the results of case studies on three hypes in three different empirical domains: voice over internet protocol (VoIP), gene therapy and high-temperature superconductivity. The cases differ in terms of the type of technology and the characteristics of the application environment. We conclude that hype patterns indeed vary a lot, and that the interplay of expectations at different levels affects the ability of a field to cope with hype and disappointment.     

Idea Competitions under scrutiny: Acquisition,intelligence or public relations mechanism?

Idea Competitions (ICs) are becoming a popular mechanism chosen by firms to perform Open Innovation. They are a way to engage with external sources of knowledge such as individual entrepreneurs and small firms who are asked to submit ideas and compete for a prize. However, little is known about the success of ICs as acquisition mechanisms. The researchers conducted interviews in five multinational companies to evaluate the effects of using ICs as an acquisition mechanism. Although still preliminary, the results of this study show that the success of ICs as an acquisition mechanism remains uncertain because their output (i.e. the number of ideas acquired) is often low compared to the input (i.e. the number of ideas submitted) and effort required to run them (e.g. to vet ideas). Across the cases observed, ICs appear to be more successful at identifying and acquiring early-stage ideas, particularly those outside the current business focus. The study shows that ICs deliver other functional benefits such as improved intelligence and public relations and that these need to be considered as part of the evaluation of the IC's success. The paper concludes by discussing the conditions in which ICs are implemented and the implications for Open Innovation theory.     

PanelWhiz and the Australian Longitudinal Data Infrastructure in Economics

PanelWhiz is a graphical user interface that was written for the statistical software, Stata SE/MP Version 11 (Win/Mac/Linux) or later, which allows users to extract data from complicated multi‐level longitudinal datasets in an easy and efficient manner. Specifically, Australian datasets, such as Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey, Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life, Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, Footprints in Time—The Longitudinal Study of Indigenous Children and Consumer Attitudes, Sentiments & Expectations in Australia, have already been integrated into the common platform of the PanelWhiz system.