Stochastic Choice and the Allocation of Cognitive Effort

Data from a risky choice experiment are used to estimate a fully parametric stochastic model of risky choice. As is usual with such analyses, Expected Utility Theory is rejected in favour of a form of Rank Dependent Theory. Then an estimate of the risk aversion parameter is deduced for each subject, and this is used to construct a measure of the “closeness to indifference' of each subject in each choice problem. This measure is then used as an explanatory variable in a random effects model of decision time, with other explanatory variables being the complexity of the problem, the financial incentives, and the amount of experience accumulated at the time of performing the task. The most interesting finding is that significantly more effort is allocated to problems in which subjects are close to indifference. This presents us with another reason (in addition to statistical information considerations) why such tasks should play a prominent role in experiments. JEL Classification: C23, C91, D81     

Human capital,innovation capability and economic growth in Portugal, 1960-2001

In maintaining that the main flaw in empirical studies on economic growth derives from the fact that they employ Solow-style neoclassical growth models, rather than testing actual endogenous growth theory, we examine the human capital-innovation-growth nexus, thus testing new growth theory more directly. We test its insights against the economic evolution of an individual country, Portugal, using time series data from 1960 to 2001. Estimates based on vector autoregressive and cointegration analysis seem to confirm that human capital and indigenous innovation efforts were enormously important to the economic growth process in Portugal during the period of study. In particular, the indirect effect of human capital through innovation, emerges here as being critical, showing that a reasonably high stock of human capital is necessary to enable a country to reap the benefits of its indigenous innovation efforts.Received: November 2003, Accepted: November 2004, JEL Classification: C22, J24, O30, O40 Correspondence to: Aurora A.C. TeixeiraThe authors are grateful to two anonymous referees, Paulo Brito and the participants of the 2003 Portuguese Society for Economics Research (SPiE) in Lisbon, Portugal for helpful comments and suggestions. CEMPRE - Centro de Estudos Macroeconómicos e Previsão - is supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the Programa Operacional Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (POCTI) of the Quadro Comunitário de Apoio III, which is financed by FEDER and Portuguese funds.     

Ordinal efficiency and dominated sets of assignments

Using lotteries is a common tool for allocating indivisible goods. Since obtaining preferences over lotteries is often difficult, real-life mechanisms usually rely on ordinal preferences over deterministic outcomes. Bogomolnaia and Moulin (J. Econom. Theory 19 (2002) 623) show that the outcome of an ex post efficient mechanism may be stochastically dominated. They define a random assignment to be ordinally efficient if and only if it is not stochastically dominated. In this paper we investigate the relation between ex post efficiency and ordinal efficiency. We introduce a new notion of domination defined over sets of assignments and show that a lottery induces an ordinally efficient random assignment if and only if each subset of the full support of the lottery is undominated.     

Intra-Jurisdictional Tax Competition

While much has been written about inter-jurisdictional competition for tax revenues, especially concerning the choice between harmonization and competition, the literature has largely ignored intra-jurisdiction issues. The few articles examining this issue focus on how lower level governmental entities react to the tax decisions of a national government. However, in some instances, multiple co-equal taxing authorities might share the same base. These bodies face a dilemma over whether to harmonize their policies or to compete. We present a simple model of revenue maximizing tax authorities and derive the conditions under which harmonization dominates competition.     

An extended Heckscher-Ohlin model with transaction costs and technological comparative advantage

Summary. This paper introduces technological differences and transaction costs into the Heckscher-Ohlin (HO) model and examines the HO theorem, factor price equalization theorem, the Stolper-Samuelson theorem and the Rybczynski theorem. It shows that the HO theorem can be refined, and that the factor price equalisation theorem, the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem and the Rybczynski theorem do not always hold. It also shows that transaction costs play an important role in determining the equilibrium trade pattern.Received: 26 February 2001, Revised: 27 May 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: F10, F11. Correspondence to: Wenli ChengWe are grateful for comments from the anonymous referee, Hugo Sonnenschein, Guangzhen Sun and participants of the seminar on this paper at University of Washington.     

Strategic market games with a finite horizon and incomplete markets

Summary. We study a strategic market game associated to an intertemporal economy with a finite horizon and incomplete markets. We demonstrate that generically, for any finite number of players, every sequentially strictly individually rational and default-free stream of allocations can be approximated by a full subgame-perfect equilibrium. As a consequence, imperfect competition may Pareto-dominate perfect competition when markets are incomplete. Moreover - and this contrasts with the main message conveyed by the market games literature - there exists a large open set of initial endowments for which full subgame-perfect equilibria do not converge to -efficient allocations when the number of players tends to infinity. Finally, strategic speculative bubbles may survive at full subgame-perfect equilibria.Received: 24 January 2002, Revised: 21 February 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, D43, D52. Correspondence to: Gaël GiraudWe thank Tim Van Zandt for his comments.     

Model selection for nonlinear time series

We investigate the finite-sample performance of model selection criteria for local linear regression by simulation. Similarly to linear regression, the penalization term depends on the number of parameters of the model. In the context of nonparametric regression, we use a suitable quantity to account for the Equivalent Number of Parameters as previously suggested in the literature. We consider the following criteria: Rice T, FPE, AIC, Corrected AIC and GCV. To make results comparable with other data-driven selection criteria we consider also Leave-Out CV. We show that the properties of the penalization schemes are very different for some linear and nonlinear models. Finally, we set up a goodness-of-fit test for linearity based on bootstrap methods. The test has correct size and very high power against the alternatives investigated. Application of the methods proposed to macroeconomic and financial time series shows that there is evidence of nonlinearity.First version received: September 2002/Final version received : October 2003I would like to thank Cees Diks, Cars Hommes and an anonymous referee for useful comments that significantly improved the paper.     

A Note on Market Power in an Emission Permits Market with Banking

In this paper, we investigate the effect of market power on equilibrium path of an emission permits market in which firms can bank current permits for use in later periods. In particular, we study the market equilibrium for a large (potentially dominant) firm and competitive fringe with rational expectations. We characterize the equilibrium solution for different permits allocations and discuss the large firm’s stock-holding constraints needed for credible market manipulation.     

Promising politicians,rational voters,and election outcomes

Overwhelming anecdotal evidence suggests that politicians often promise more during an election campaign than they are willing or able to deliver once elected. In this paper, we present two signaling models to explain this phenomenon. In the first model, two candidates maximize their share of the vote. In the second model both try to convince the median voter. In each model, candidates rationally distort their true policy position. Voters, however, are not fooled. Upon observing election promises, they can rationally infer the true position of each candidate. Hence, the election outcome is not affected.JEL Classification: D72, D82The author thanks Peter Kooreman, Wilko Letterie, Bert Schoonbeek, and two anonymous referees for useful comments. Financial support from The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) is gratefully acknowledged.     

Implementing egalitarian-equivalent allocation of indivisible goods on restricted domains

Summary. We study the problem of allocating several units of homogeneous indivisible goods when monetary compensations are possible. First, we show that there is no strategy-proof, budget balanced, and egalitarian-equivalent mechanism even on extremely restricted preference domains. Next, we present two characterizations of strategy-proof and decision-efficient mechanisms that satisfy a stronger version of egalitarian-equivalence on preference domains bounded above. These characterizations tell us a trade-off between strategy-proofness and Pareto efficiency, and a relationship with strategy-proof and envy-free mechanisms. Finally, we prove that no egalitarian-equivalent mechanism is Nash implementable even on extremely restricted preference domains.Received: 22 April 2002, Revised: 17 February 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, D63, D71, D82.I am very grateful to Naoki Yoshihara for useful discussions and suggestions that motivate me to study this subject. I would also like to thank Kotaro Suzumura, Koichi Tadenuma, Yoshikatsu Tatamitani, and the editor and two anonymous referees of this journal for helpful comments.