MACROECONOMETRIC MODEL EVALUATION,WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE NIF88 MODEL*

This paper has argued that a mixture of procedures is required for the evaluation of a macroeconomic model. Both individual equations and overall model properties are involved, while both formal tests and an informal understanding of the model are needed. The procedures advocated reflect the need for evaluation to be informative and manageable. The bulk of the statistical testing is best conducted at the single equation stage. Evaluation of single equations involves:

• (i) employing a battery of diagnostic tests;
• (ii) specification and stability tests should be designed, where possible, to enhance the power of the test conducted, including by making use of external information;
• (iii) procedures designed to detect influence of particular observations can provide
• (iv) comparison with other information, both from other empirical investigations and from theoretical priors, is necessary to ensure sound results.

     

Purchasing practices in a hospital environment: an ethical analysis

The critical state of the hospital industry, as previously described, generates a difficult decision environment for the materiel manager and those in the purchasing function. The unique life- and death circumstances of hospitals impose a further onus on those who manage them. In the name of saving lives, they can find a convenient excuse to disregard all moral principles, forgetting the Socratic dictum "it is not enough that one lives, but that one lives well." Without the moral "right stuff," they can easily give in to the seductions of momentary gains and glory through ethical short-cuts. There is wisdom and consolation in the words that "nice guys may appear to finish last, but usually they're running in a different race." Studies have established a direct relationship between corporate excellence and ethical values. The reality of competition in the hospital industry dictates that the integration of ethics into the life of the organization should happen by design and not by accident. This is what is meant by strategy. If hospitals would strive for excellence to survive and grow, they should have a strategy with a mission statement that also embodies its moral values and moral agenda. Such an approach does not guarantee that an organization will become immune to moral contamination, but it does provide an antidote.     

U.S. Savings Bonds: the planned-gift forgotten asset

As older Americans take a close look at their assets, promote their interest in unlocking the wealth accumulation in their U.S. Saving Bond holdings. Use careful planning and advice when promoting this gift strategy.     

Household formation by the young in the United States

"A model of household formation by the young is specified and estimated. It was found that the headship rate for the young in the United States depends on income, the cost of housing, the number of families receiving AFDC payments, the age at first marriage for females and for males, and the percentage of males enrolled in college. Household formation by the young is much more sensitive to changes in income and the price of housing than household formation by the entire adult population. The estimated results are used to examine the change in the headship rate from 1961 to 1979 and from 1979 to 1987."     

The balanced scorecard--measures that drive performance

Frustrated by the inadequacies of traditional performance measurement systems, some managers have abandoned financial measures like return on equity and earnings per share. "Make operational improvements and the numbers will follow," the argument goes. But managers do not want to choose between financial and operational measures. Executives want a balanced presentation of measures that allow them to view the company from several perspectives simultaneously. During a year-long research project with 12 companies at the leading edge of performance measurement, the authors developed a "balanced scorecard," a new performance measurement system that gives top managers a fast but comprehensive view of the business. The balanced scorecard includes financial measures that tell the results of actions already taken. And it complements those financial measures with three sets of operational measures having to do with customer satisfaction, internal processes, and the organization's ability to learn and improve--the activities that drive future financial performance. Managers can create a balanced scorecard by translating their company's strategy and mission statements into specific goals and measures. To create the part of the scorecard that focuses on the customer perspective, for example, executives at Electronic Circuits Inc. established general goals for customer performance: get standard products to market sooner, improve customers' time-to-market, become customers' supplier of choice through partnerships, and develop innovative products tailored to customer needs. Managers translated these elements of strategy into four specific goals and identified a measure for each.