ON THE FIRST–ORDER EFFICIENCY AND ASYMPTOTIC NORMALITY OF MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATORS OBTAINED FROM DEPENDENT OBSERVATIONS

Abstract. In this paper we study the first–order efficiency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator obtained from dependent observations. Our conditions are weaker than usual, in that we do not require convergences in probability to be uniform or third–order derivatives to exist.
The paper builds on Witting and Nolle's result concerning the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator obtained from independent and identically distributed observations, and on a martingale theorem by McLeish.     

A model of the Dutch labour market (AMO-K)

Summary So far, the labour market has not received any special attention from macro-econometric model builders. In this article an attempt has been made to describe the labour market in detail, paying attention to such important phenomena as the friction between labour supply and demand, the heterogeneity of labour, the dependence of labour supply on the labour-market situation, the Phillips mechanism and the impact of real wages on labour demand. To make it suitable for policy simulations, the model has been extended to a complete macro-econometric model, taking account of the fact that both labour and capital limit the production possibilities.This paper summarises an extensive Dutch report on the construction of a model for the Netherlands labour market. The title of the original report is AMO-K: Een arbeidsmarktmodel met twee categorieën arbeid; (AMO-K, A labour-market model with two categories of labour) ; it was published by the Netherlands Economic Institute (NEI) in Rotterdam in the so-called Olive Series, 1982-2, pp. 403ff. Some details of the model presented in that report were changed after its publication; see G. den Broeder, AMO-K 81-12, Tussenrapport betreffende de verdere ontwikkeling van het arbeidsmarktmodel (Interim report on the further development of the labourmarket model), Rotterdam, September 1983. Since then, only minor changes have been carried through. The model reproduced in this paper is the modified version. The model was developed within the National Programme of Labour-Market Research (NPAO) (now defunct), the NPAO organisation having granted a commission to the NEI in Rotterdam.     

International migration versus foreign investment in the presence of unemployment

"This paper extends the standard (two-factor, one-good) model of international factor movements, to include unemployment due to a minimum-income guarantee within the capital-abundant country. From this country's perspective, we establish important departures from previous (full-employment) results. Most notably, our analysis shows that: (1) free factor mobility is worse than no mobility; (2) the optimal degree of labour migration is zero; and (3) national welfare can always be maximized by an optimal flow of capital. The analysis is then extended to examine: (1) illegal migration; (2) subsidization of employment; and (3) alternative views of unemployment."     

Conflict management and innovation performance: An integrated contingency perspective

In recent years, many of the basic assumptions underlying organizational conflict research have changed, drawing into question the validity of some previous research findings. Operating from the perspective that conflict is complex, multidimensional, and context specific, this research takes a fresh look at key conflict antecedents, mediators, and consequences in the context of the innovation process. The study investigates the relationships among five behavioral conflict-handling strategies, destructive and constructive conflict, and innovation performance as perceived by 290 R & D and marketing department managers. Empirical results both support and question some of the previous findings in conflict research. The results indicate that integrating, accommodating, compromising, forcing, and avoiding conflict-handling strategies can have different impacts on constructive and destructive conflict in an innovation context. Kelly Hewett (kelly_hewett@moore.sc.edu) is in the Department of Marketing at the Moore School of Business, University of South Carolina. Her research focuses on the management of relationships between buyers and sellers, as well as between headquarters and foreign subsidiaries in managing the marketing function globally. Her research has been published in theJournal of Marketing, the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, and theJournal of International Business Studies, among others. R. Bruce Money (moneyb@byu.edu) is the Donald Staheli Fellow and an associate professor of marketing and international business in the Marriott School of Management, Brigham Young University. His articles have been published in journals such as theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, theJournal of International Business Studies, andSloan Management Review. His research interests include the international aspects of national culture’s measurement and effects, business-to-business marketing, word-of-mouth promo-tion, services marketing, and negotiation. Subhash Sharma (sharma@moore.sc.edu) is the James F. Kane Professor of Business in the Moore School of Business, University of South Carolina. Professor Sharma’s research interests include marketing strategy, structural equation modeling, data mining, customer relationship management, e-commerce, the marketing-operations interface, and global marketing strategies. He has published numerous articles in these areas in leading academic journals such as theJournal of Marketing Research, theJournal of Marketing, Marketing Science, theJournal of Retailing, theJournal of Operations Management, theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing, andManagement Science. Professor Sharma has also authored two textbooks:Applied Multivariate Techniques (John Wiley, 1996) andScaling Procedures: Issues and Applications (with Richard G. Netemeyer and William O. Bearden, Sage, 2003). Professor Sharma was a member of the editorial boards of theJournal of Marketing Research and theJournal of Marketing and currently serves on the editorial review board of theJournal of Retailing.     

短期事件对旅游的影响:以中国SARS危机为例

通过回顾近年来世界各国发生的短期危机对旅游产生的影响，重点分析2003年的SARS疫情给中国经济特别是旅游业造成的重大损失，讨论了不同的短期危机对旅游的不同影响以及旅游在危机后的不同恢复时间。旅游业对短期危机缺乏足够的防御能力，但通常能较为迅速的走上复苏之路。在这个过程中，适当的危机管理措施和有效的恢复策略是十分重要和不可或缺的。