Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation

Linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests are used to examine the dynamic relation between daily Dow Jones stock returns and percentage changes in New York Stock Exchange trading volume. We find evidence of significant bidirectional nonlinear causality between returns and volume. We also examine whether the nonlinear causality from volume to returns can be explained by volume serving as a proxy for information flow in the stochastic process generating stock return variance as suggested by Clark's (1973) latent common-factor model. After controlling for volatility persistence in returns, we continue to find evidence of nonlinear causality from volume to returns.     

The approximation capabilities of the minflex-Laurents,translog, and generalized Leontief forms

This paper compares the approximation capabilities of the minflex-Laurents translog and minflex generalized Leontief cost functions with their translog and generalized Leontief counterparts in Monte Carlo experiments. The minflex Laurent specifications generally provided closer approximations to underlying technical and economic parameters. Imposition of nonlinear restrictions on some of the parameters of the minflex Laurent models yielded measurable improvement in estimated elasticities of substitutions, returns to scale, and rates of technical change.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through E. Appelbaum.     

Inter-industry technology flows in the US food-processing industries

The study examines the origins of technology important to improving productivity in the food-processing industries. Technology flows were measured both by patents in patent classes closely identified with six food industries, and by a sample of significant food-processing innovations. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that interindustry technology flows are the most significant determinant of productivity improvements in the food industries. These findings solve the enigma that the food-processing industries have enjoyed rapid improvements in productivity despite making very modest investments in research and development.     

Lobbying, multisector trade, and sustainability of free‐trade agreements

Abstract.  This paper is concerned with the sustainability of free‐trade agreements (FTA). FTA sustainability is influenced by governments' valuations of political contributions, discount factors, the lobbying position of the specific‐interest groups in the intra‐industry trade sectors, and the sectoral coverage of the FTA. I find that (i) under certain conditions, the FTA under protectionist lobbying could be more sustainable than the FTA under no political pressure; (ii) the lobby‐supported FTA is more sustainable than the lobby‐opposed FTA and the FTA under no political pressure; and (iii) multisector trade enhances FTA sustainability. JEL Classification: F12, F13, F15.     

Family income and child outcomes in Canada

Abstract.  A positive relationship between income and child outcomes has been observed in data from numerous countries. A key question concerns the extent to which this association represents a causal relationship as opposed to unobserved heterogeneity. We use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth to implement a series of empirical strategies for estimating the existence and size of the effect of income on three measures of cognition. Our results indicate that the effect of income on these outcomes may well be positive, but that it is likely to be smaller than conventional estimates. JEL Classification: I10     

COLLUSION IN LOCAL PUBLIC WORKS*

A hierarchical model of collusion in local public works is presented. A local authority plans to undertake a project, delegating its construction to a construction firm. Both of them know the project's cost. However, the federal government decides whether to subsidize the project without knowing its cost. Therefore, the local authority and the constructor may agree to misreport their private information, in order to benefit from the allocation of federal grants. We show that different collusive behaviors may emerge. Then, we characterize the optimal federal grant policy. Finally, we investigate when constructing (shutting down) useless (valuable) projects is optimal.     

Economic Development Indicators as Determinants of Medal Winning at the Sydney Olympics: An Extreme Bounds Analysis

This paper examines the variables that determine the performance of countries at the Olympic Games as measured by a weighted sum of the medals won at the Sydney 2000 Games. While previous studies have identified the importance of a country's economic size and the resources available to sport, this paper examines nine more variables including the number of athletes representing each nation and some development indicators. Based on 2310 regressions, both traditional and restricted extreme bounds analysis show that only two variables are robust: the number of athletes and national expenditure on health. Thus, the final model recognises four explanatory variables that include these two as well as GDP and population.