Understanding the police response to fraud: the challenges in configuring a response to a low-priority crime on the rise

ABSTRACT

Previous research has demonstrated the comparative lack of priority fraud receives from government and law enforcement in the UK compared to other serious offences, as well as shortcomings in the overall approach to investigation. This paper examines the current state of affairs in the light of changes aimed at addressing these limitations. It incorporates findings from a national survey of police forces, as well as a local survey of police personnel in three forces supplemented by interviews. The findings suggest that the situation has become more complicated. Many police officers interviewed did not feel that the police response in their own area was effective, and that their colleagues often lacked the appropriate skill sets needed. Moreover, forces were not confident they were recruiting the right people to tackle fraud. The paper has important lessons for policing internationally.     

Social Learning in Beauty‐Contest Games

We study the impact of social learning on the depth of reasoning in an experimental beauty‐contest game. Naive advice and observation of others' decisions as two forms of social learning trigger faster convergence to the equilibrium. We find that subjects who receive advice outperform uninformed subjects permanently, whereas subjects who observe others' past behavior before making their decision only have a temporary advantage over uninformed subjects. A series of control‐treatments and simulations indicate that the latter result is due to subjects failing to make the most out of observing others.     

Dissipative Competition: Evidence from a Quasi‐Natural Experiment

We document that contrary to the conventional view, the costs of domestic firms in terms of selling, general and administrative expenses and cost of goods sold increase significantly following exogenous shocks that increase competition, namely material import tariff cuts affecting US manufacturing industries over the period 1974–2005. Incompatible with an agency explanation, the cost increase is more pronounced among firms with higher CEO/insider/board ownership. We further find that the cost increase is more evident among firms with smaller market share and among focused firms. Generally, our results are consistent with the notion of ‘dissipative competition’ discussed in the seminal papers by Tullock.     

EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY: EAST VS. WEST GERMANY

The case of German reunification has been subject to extensive research on earnings inequality and labour market integration. However, little is known about the development of equality of opportunity (EOp) in East and West Germany after 1990. Using German micro data, we empirically analyse how circumstances beyond the sphere of individual control relate to inequality in East and West Germany. Our results show that EOp is larger in East than in West Germany. However, despite increasing income inequality, EOp remained surprisingly constant.     

Knowledge Spillovers,Competition and Innovation Success

We study the relationship between a patent-based measure of knowledge spillovers that calculates technological proximity based on technologically relevant firms and innovation success. We find – for a representative sample of Swiss firms – that knowledge spillovers have a positive and significant association with the commercial success of innovative products. The paper shows the importance of market conditions for the relationship of spillovers with innovation performance: It is only positive and significant in markets with a medium number of competitors in the main product market, but not in monopolistic or polypolistic market structures.     

Measuring the effectiveness of US monetary policy during the COVID-19 recession

The COVID-19 recession that started in March 2020 led to an unprecedented decline in economic activity across the globe. To fight this recession, policy makers in central banks engaged in expansionary monetary policy. This paper asks whether the measures adopted by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have been effective in boosting real activity and calming financial markets. To measure these effects at high frequencies, we propose a novel mixed frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model. This model allows us to combine weekly and monthly information within a unified framework. Our model combines a set of macroeconomic aggregates such as industrial production, unemployment rates, and inflation with high-frequency information from financial markets such as stock prices, interest rate spreads, and weekly information on the Fed's balance sheet size. The latter set of high-frequency time series is used to dynamically interpolate the monthly time series to obtain weekly macroeconomic measures. We use this setup to simulate counterfactuals in absence of monetary stimulus. The results show that the monetary expansion caused higher output growth and stock market returns, more favorable long-term financing conditions and a depreciation of the US dollar compared with a no-policy benchmark scenario.     

Estimating the gravity model when zero trade flows are frequent and economically determined

ABSTRACT

Since the 1950s, we have known that the presence of zero-valued dependent variables can seriously bias econometric estimates whether the zeros are included or excluded. Yet the widely-used gravity model is frequently estimated on samples that include large fractions of zeros. An influential paper by Santos Silva and Tenreyro – based on simulations that include no economically-determined zeros – concludes that the bias problems resulting from zeros and those resulting from heteroscedasticity and nonlinearity can be solved using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML) model including the zero values. This paper begins by adapting the Santos Silva and Tenreyro experimental design to include economically-determined zeros to see whether this conclusion continues to hold. With this design, it finds that alternative estimators have lower bias than PPML. Changing to a Monte Carlo design that replicates the much-higher real-world frequency of predicted values near zero restores the finding of lower bias with the PPML estimator. The results highlight the need for very careful design of Monte Carlo experiments when evaluating alternative estimators of the gravity model.     

The So-Called 2015 Migration Crisis and Euroscepticism in Border Regions: Facing Re-Bordering Trends in the Danish–German Borderlands

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the role of Euroscepticism on regional cross-border cooperation between Germany and Denmark. It demonstrates that Euroscepticism, while absent from local mainstream politicians, had already caused civic unrest in the 1997 attempts to construct a return to history Euro-region Schleswig. It resulted in a re-scaling of the Euro-Region to Region and Schleswig to “Sønderjylland/Schleswig”, omitting any reference to Europe, European identity or a commitment to a closer European union in the relevant agreements. Border controls, on the agenda in 2011 and again since 2015, have demonstrated the institutional weakness of cross-border politics when faced with determined initiatives from the national center. Furthermore, the Eurosceptic Danish People’s Party had its best results in the border precincts both at the latest European and Danish national elections. Euroscepticism, even though difficult to measure on a regional level, seems to have been an ever present underneath current despite a political rhetoric of successful cooperation and cross-border reconciliation. The Danish-German case’s development might be more distinct, but nonetheless representative for European border (and cross-border) regions. While European metropolises develop into thriving cosmopolitan post-nation state societies, this is not necessary the case at Europe’s borders, where categorization and bordering remain common social practices by the large majority of national borderlanders with only a small portion of transnational borderlanders or ‘regionauts’ getting involved in border crossing social practices on a larger scale.     

What's on the Menu? Policies to Reduce Young People's Sugar Consumption

Young people in the UK consume far above the maximum recommended levels of added sugar. It is likely that neither they nor their parents fully take account of the future health, social and economic costs of this high sugar consumption. This provides a rationale for policy intervention. The majority of young people's added sugar consumption occurs in the home, where purchases are typically made by parents. This means that understanding the purchase decisions of adults is important for policy design, even if the policies aim to reduce the consumption of young people. We discuss the merits of popular policies, including taxes, advertising restrictions and restrictions on the availability of specific foods, and we identify promising avenues for future research.     

The marketing of love: how attachment styles affect romantic consumption journeys

Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science - The experience of romantic love is closely interlocked with consumption journeys—yet how and why consumers engage in romantic consumption is not...