Estimating the gravity model when zero trade flows are frequent and economically determined

ABSTRACT

Since the 1950s, we have known that the presence of zero-valued dependent variables can seriously bias econometric estimates whether the zeros are included or excluded. Yet the widely-used gravity model is frequently estimated on samples that include large fractions of zeros. An influential paper by Santos Silva and Tenreyro – based on simulations that include no economically-determined zeros – concludes that the bias problems resulting from zeros and those resulting from heteroscedasticity and nonlinearity can be solved using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML) model including the zero values. This paper begins by adapting the Santos Silva and Tenreyro experimental design to include economically-determined zeros to see whether this conclusion continues to hold. With this design, it finds that alternative estimators have lower bias than PPML. Changing to a Monte Carlo design that replicates the much-higher real-world frequency of predicted values near zero restores the finding of lower bias with the PPML estimator. The results highlight the need for very careful design of Monte Carlo experiments when evaluating alternative estimators of the gravity model.     

The So-Called 2015 Migration Crisis and Euroscepticism in Border Regions: Facing Re-Bordering Trends in the Danish–German Borderlands

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the role of Euroscepticism on regional cross-border cooperation between Germany and Denmark. It demonstrates that Euroscepticism, while absent from local mainstream politicians, had already caused civic unrest in the 1997 attempts to construct a return to history Euro-region Schleswig. It resulted in a re-scaling of the Euro-Region to Region and Schleswig to “Sønderjylland/Schleswig”, omitting any reference to Europe, European identity or a commitment to a closer European union in the relevant agreements. Border controls, on the agenda in 2011 and again since 2015, have demonstrated the institutional weakness of cross-border politics when faced with determined initiatives from the national center. Furthermore, the Eurosceptic Danish People’s Party had its best results in the border precincts both at the latest European and Danish national elections. Euroscepticism, even though difficult to measure on a regional level, seems to have been an ever present underneath current despite a political rhetoric of successful cooperation and cross-border reconciliation. The Danish-German case’s development might be more distinct, but nonetheless representative for European border (and cross-border) regions. While European metropolises develop into thriving cosmopolitan post-nation state societies, this is not necessary the case at Europe’s borders, where categorization and bordering remain common social practices by the large majority of national borderlanders with only a small portion of transnational borderlanders or ‘regionauts’ getting involved in border crossing social practices on a larger scale.     

Firm Heterogeneity and Export Pricing in India

We examine export pricing by Indian manufacturing firms in the early 2000s using a unique data set that matches firm characteristics with product and destination‐level trade data. We find that, in contrast to China and other countries, firm productivity is negatively associated with export prices, and export prices are negatively associated with distance while positively associated with remoteness. Our conjecture is that Indian innovation costs, which are higher than China's, drive down the scope for quality differentiation causing a negative association between productivity and prices. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence consistent with heterogenous goods and short quality ladders, a theoretical possibility noted in the study by Antoniades (2012), an outcome that arises here because of domestic Indian economic and regulatory features.     

Zur Integration heuristischer Managementstrategien in die Dynamische Finanzanalyse

Dynamic financial analysis (DFA) has become an important tool in analyzing the financial situation of insurance companies. Constant development and documentation of DFA tools has occurred during the last years. However, several questions concerning the implementation of DFA systems have not been answered in the DFA literature to date. One such important issue is the consideration of management strategies in the DFA context. The aim of this paper is to study the effects of different management strategies on a non-life insurer’s risk and return profile. Therefore, we extend the results of a recent working paper by Eling / Parnitzke / Schmeiser (2007) with two variants and test these variants numerically within a DFA simulation study.     

An Empirical Analysis of Triple Bottom-Line Reporting and its Determinants: Evidence from the United States and Japan

This paper investigates triple bottom‐line (TBL) disclosures of 50 of the largest US and Japanese companies. Twenty disclosure criteria were developed for each of the TBL disclosure areas: economic, social, and environmental. Disclosure information was examined in annual reports, stand‐alone reports, and special website reports. Regression analysis was used to examine empirically the determinants of TBL disclosure practice. Our results indicate that, for total TBL disclosure (combining economic, social, and environmental categories), the extent of reporting is higher for firms with larger size, lower profitability, lower liquidity, and for firms with membership in the manufacturing industry. Further analysis indicates that the results for the total TBL disclosure are primarily driven by non‐economic disclosures. We also find that the extent of overall TBL reporting is higher for Japanese firms, with environmental disclosure being the key driver. This result could be attributed to the differences in national cultures, the regulatory environment, and other institutional factors between the United States and Japan.     

Do German Welfare‐to‐Work Programmes Reduce Welfare Dependency and Increase Employment?

Abstract. During the last decade, many Western economies reformed their welfare systems with the aim of activating welfare recipients by increasing welfare‐to‐work programmes (WTWP) and job‐search enforcement. We evaluate the short‐term effects of three important German WTWP implemented after a major reform in January 2005 (‘Hartz IV’), namely short training, further training with a planned duration of up to three months and public workfare programmes (‘One‐Euro‐Jobs’). Our analysis is based on a combination of a large‐scale survey and administrative data that is rich with respect to individual, household, agency level and regional information. We use this richness of the data to base the econometric evaluation on a selection‐on‐observables approach. We find that short‐term training programmes, on average, increase their participants' employment perspectives. There is also considerable effect heterogeneity across different subgroups of participants that could be exploited to improve the allocation of welfare recipients to the specific programmes and thus increase overall programme effectiveness.     

Value Capture and Policy Design in a Digital Economy

Pervasive information and communication technology (ICT), intertwined with global dispersion of supply chains, is inducing a sizable structural transformation. All the articles in this special issue highlight that even though technology is the key driver, the reactions of businesses and countries to these transformations will depend on economic, political, and social arrangements within each organization and society. The competitive landscape of the ICT industry itself is likely to remain in flux. Also in other industries, both value creation and value capture are becoming increasingly complex—and remain more favorable for the developed countries than some commonly used measures suggest. According to the prevailing economic thinking, public policies should set market-friendly “rules of the game” and then stay out of the way. In the ICT domain, technical standards, spectrum allocations, and market power associated with various types of lock-ins play crucial roles calling for more active public involvement. In particular, the dynamic aspects of competition and anti-trust policies are important yet complex. While there is limited scope for sectoral or horizontal industrial policies, this special issue provides alternative avenues for considering matrix or systemic policies emphasizing education, openness, and national competitiveness.     

Volunteering time decisions: a multi‐factor experimental study

Non‐profit organizations often seek volunteers to help staff a fundraising event. In the present research, an experimental study assessed volunteering time decisions for a fundraising event following manipulations of opportunity cost valence, opportunity cost avoidability and question order involving donating time and donating money. Opportunity costs represent foregone alternatives sacrificed (e.g. working) when engaging in an activity (e.g. volunteering), with valence of the opportunity cost indicating the appeal (positive or negative) of the foregone alternative and avoidability of the opportunity cost suggesting how easy it would be to forgo the alternative. Prospective donors are often asked to consider both volunteering time and contributing money, and these two questions posed to individuals can be varied in terms of order. The results of the experiment revealed that individuals intended to volunteer the most time when an opportunity cost was negative and avoidable. The lowest time donation intentions occurred when an opportunity cost was positive and less avoidable with individuals also being asked about donating money prior to being asked to donate time. The results highlighted the importance to non‐profit firms of considering opportunity costs potential volunteers face and suggested care in structuring the order of questions involving time and money posed to those individuals. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparative effectiveness of standard endotracheal tubes vs. endotracheal tubes with continuous subglottic suctioning on ventilator-associated pneumonia rates

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) accounts for the majority of nosocomial pneumonias, which may increase intensive care and prolonged hospital stays. Endotracheal tubes allowing continuous subglottic suctioning may reduce VAP; however, they are more expensive than standard endotracheal tubes not allowing continuous suctioning. he objective of this study was to measure the comparative costs associated with continuous subglottic suctioning endotracheal tubes (CSS-ETT) versus standard endotracheal tubes (S-ETT) among intubated patients and whether cost differential is offset by the occurrence of VAP in patients receiving either type of intubation. A retrospective chart review was conducted for 154 intubated adult patients (77 = S-ETT; 77 = CSS-ETT). The S-ETT group had one case of VAP; the CSS-ETT group had none. The mean total hospital charges were higher for the S-ETT group ($103,600; CSS-ETT= $88,500) (p = 0.3). Although the average number of intubation days and ICU days were greater for the CSS-ETT group, there were no cases of VAP compared to the S-ETT group. ased upon the one S-ETT VAP case and the VAP attributable costs, it is cost effective to use the CSS-ETT.