Exchange rate theories

Summary A four-period classification is used to categorise recent exchange-rate theories or models. In the very short period, only capital flows are relevant. In the short period, both capital flows and payments on the current account play a role. In the long period, the capital account and the current account are individually in equilibrium. In the very long period, purchasing power parity holds. Cash-in-advance models are dealt with separately. Many models that purport to explain exchange rates do in fact not provide for the exchange of currencies. No model stands up satisfactorily to econometric testing. Speculative bubbles, the peso problem and news play havoc with tests of the uncovered interest parity theorem, the core of the monetary models. This aside, the fundamental assumption of rational expectations itself is suspect. There does not seem to be such a thing as a true model.I am indebted to Dr. W.J.B. Smits and Professor J.W. Gunning for helpful discussions on a number of issues pertinent to this article.     

The Impact of Team Cognitive Styles on Performance of Radical and Incremental NPD Projects

Although prior studies increased our understanding of the performance implications of new product development (NPD) team members' functional backgrounds and demographic variables, they remained relatively silent on the impact of underlying psychological characteristics such as the team members' cognitive styles on project performance. The goal of this study is to explore the effects of NPD teams' cognitive styles on project performance in different kinds of NPD projects. Based on survey data from members of 95 NPD teams gathered in four Dutch manufacturing companies, hypotheses about the relationships between teams' cognitive styles and project performance of radical and incremental NPD projects are tested. Results of linear regression analyses show that the level of teams' analytical information processing positively affects project performance in both incremental and radical NPD projects, whereas the relationship between the level of teams' intuitive information processing and project performance depends on the radicalness of the project. These findings contribute to the academic discussion on team innovation, suggesting that, next to demographic and functional characteristics, cognitive styles in teams also significantly influence project performance.     

Media risk communication – what was said by whom and how was it interpreted

The purpose of this paper is to provide some insight into the level and type of media coverage that food risks received and consider the translation of press releases into media articles. Past scientific messages dealing with two food risks (Salmonella and Genetically Modified (GM) potatoes) were collected from various Irish media sources over a defined period. In addition, press releases and helpline data were collected. All data pieces were subsequently coded. Based on the audit it is clear that island of Ireland journalists are generally balanced with regard to their reporting on Salmonella. In most cases where press releases could be linked to the newspaper articles, the press release was represented fairly accurately. This brings into clear focus the need by those issuing press releases to be very clear on the meaning of their message. Journalists are using the press releases as the basis for articles therefore vague terms and overemphasis on a particular finding can result in what may appear as a sensational article. In the case of GMs more sensational hooks were used to draw attention to the articles. Thus communicators need to be aware of the characteristics of the risk they are communicating about when designing and delivering a risk message.     

The Buyer's Option in Multi-Unit Ascending Auctions: The Case of Wine Auctions at Drouot

This paper studies multi-unit ascending (English) auctions with a buyer's option. The buyer's option gives the winner of an auction the right to purchase any number of units at the winning price. We develop a theoretical model and derive the optimal strategies for the bidders. The model predicts various behavioral implications (e.g., the winner never exercises the option, the price declines…) that are tested using a unique data set on wine auctions held at the Paris-based auction house Drouot. We also analyze why the buyer's option is used. Estimating the model in a structural econometric way, and using counterfactual comparisons, we find that the buyer's option does not affect the seller's revenue (relative to a system where the units are auctioned sequentially without the option). Drouot, however, saves a lot of time with the option and this effect represents a considerable amount of money. The time-saving effect seems thus to be the primary purpose of the buyer's option.     

Configurations of human resource practices and battlefield performance: A comparison of two armies

A prominent theme in the HRM literature is the organizational impact of configurations or “bundles” of human resource practices, mostly researched in business firms. A recurrent empirical finding here is that configurations of high performance HR practices generally have a more positive effect on employee attitudes and behavior and on organizational performance than configurations of traditional HR practices. In this paper this research is extended beyond business firms to include army organizations. Specifically it is argued, first, that these two configurations are exemplified in respectively the German Army and the US Army in World War II and second, that these configurations can be reasonably related to a relatively more effective battlefield performance of the German versus the US Army, even in spite of final defeat.     

The OECD Better Life Initiative: How's Life? and the Measurement of Well‐Being

This paper presents the framework used by the OECD for defining and measuring well‐being, developed as part of the OECD Better Life Initiative launched in 2011. This framework measures well‐being by considering 11 dimensions covering both current material conditions and quality of life, while also recognizing the importance of taking account the sustainability of well‐being in the future. This framework has been populated with indicators for each dimension, whose selection has relied on international standards on measurement and was made in consultation with experts and National Statistical Offices of OECD countries. The paper also discusses the pros and cons of various approaches for presenting and disseminating information on multidimensional well‐being to different audiences—including the OECD Better Life Index, an interactive web tool. The paper concludes by illustrating the progress made in developing measures of well‐being and outlines the statistical agenda ahead to improve existing indicators and develop new ones.     

Which improves welfare more: A nominal or an indexed bond?

Summary. Economists have long argued that loan contracts should be indexed to remove the risks arising from fluctuations in the purchasing power of money: indexation however while eliminating one risk, substitutes another, arising from fluctuations in relative prices of goods. We present a theoretical framework which permits the relative merits of a nominal versus an indexed bond to be assessed in a general equilibrium setting. Received: July 31, 1995; revised version August 7, 1996     

When using knowledge can hurt performance: the value of organizational capabilities in a management consulting company

This paper explores the possibility that utilizing the firm's knowledge resources to complete important tasks can backfire and undermine competitive performance. Drawing on organizational capabilities and knowledge‐sharing research, we develop a situated performance view that holds that the value of obtaining and using knowledge within a firm depends on the task situation. Using a data set of 182 sales proposals for client work in a management consulting company, we show that sales teams that had varying needs to learn and differentiate themselves from competitors derived different levels of value from obtaining and using electronic documents and advice from colleagues. Highly experienced teams were more likely than inexperienced teams to lose the sales bids if they utilized such knowledge. Teams that had a high need to differentiate themselves from competitors also had a lower chance of winning if they utilized electronic documents. There were situations, however, where teams performed better if they utilized the firm's knowledge resources. These results suggest that competitive performance depends not on how much firms know but on how they use what they know. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Study of Consumer Behavior Using Laboratory Data

This paper reports the results of an experiment in which subjects had to buy real products in 5 different budget/price situations. Subjects were randomly drawn from the population of a medium-sized French city, and some of their socio-economic characteristics were recorded. We check the consistency of product choices with the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preferences (GARP), and find that 29% of the subjects are GARP-inconsistent. This inconsistency rate is slightly lower than the ones found in comparable studies. A possible explanation for our lower rate of GARP violations might be that the subjects in our study were confronted with less budget/price situations. In looking for determinants of the GARP violations, we find that gender, the size of the household, the degree of switching between different products, and the times spent on performing experimental tasks have significant impacts on the probability of GARP-inconsistency.