Price dynamics, retail chains and inflation measurement

We use a large scanner price dataset to study grocery price dynamics. Previous analyses based on store scanner data emphasize differences in price dynamics across products. However, we also document large differences in price movements across different grocery store chains. A variance decomposition indicates that characteristics at the level of the chains (as opposed to individual stores) explain a large fraction of the total variation in price dynamics. Thus, retailer characteristics are found to be crucial determinants of heterogeneity in pricing dynamics, in addition to product characteristics. We empirically explore how the price dynamics we document affect price index measures.     

Aggregation under complete markets

This paper proves a complete market aggregation result for a multiple good economy in which the consumers have time-additive, von Neumann–Morgenstern utility functions. This result applies to all concave intraperiod functions, and provides a contrast to many of the results in the microeconomics literature which depend on such stringent assumptions as linear Engel curves.     

Price versus quantity in a duopoly with network externalities under active and passive expectations

This study examines the endogenous choice of strategic contracts in a duopoly composed of firms that produce goods with network externalities with some sort of compatibility. We adopt two types of expectations—active and passive—as consumers' expectations for each firm's equilibrium market share. In addition, we take into account the managerial case and entrepreneurial case with and without separation between ownership and management, as firms' internal structures. We derive the properties in the Cournot competition and the Bertrand competition as the equilibrium market structures under both passive and active expectations under imperfectly compatibility of networks.     

An Axiomatic Foundation of the Multiplicative Human Development Index

The aggregation formula in the Human Development Index (HDI) was changed to a geometric mean in 2010. In this paper, we search for a theoretical justification for employing this new HDI formula. First, we find a maximal class of index functions, what we call quasi‐geometric means, that satisfy symmetry for the characteristics, normalization, and separability. Second, we show that power means are the only quasi‐geometric means satisfying homogeneity. Finally, the new HDI is the only power mean satisfying minimal lower boundedness, which is a local complementability axiom proposed by Herrero et al. (2010).     

From duty to right: The role of public education in the transition to aging societies

This paper argues that the introduction of compulsory schooling in early industrialization promoted the growth process that eventually led to a vicious cycle of population aging and negative pressure on education policy. In the early phases of industrialization, public education was undesirable for the young poor who relied on child labor. Compulsory schooling therefore discouraged childbirth, while the accompanying industrialization stimulated their demand for education. The subsequent rise in the share of the old population, however, limited government resources for education, placing heavier financial burdens on the young. This induced further fertility decline and population aging, and the resulting cycle may have delayed the growth of advanced economies in the last few decades.     

A contingent claim analysis of closed-end fund premia

We estimate contingent claims that replicate monthly net asset value (NAV) payoffs from closed-end funds. A claim's theoretical value is obtained by martingale pricing methods. The resulting net present value (NPVS) sequence is the theoretical premia sequence that is compared to the actual market premia sequence. The theoretical premia, like actual premia, are uncorrelated with NAV returns and are positively autocorrelated due to autocorrelation in the pricing information. However, there is poor correspondence between the theoretical and actual premia that seems due to the market's systematic errors in estimating a fund's management value. Risky arbitrage may be available to insiders.     

Macroeconomic Implications of Term Structures of Interest Rates Under Stochastic Differential Utility with Non-Unitary EIS

This paper proposes a continuous-time term-structure model under stochastic differential utility with non-unitary elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS, henceforth) in a representative-agent endowment economy with mean-reverting expectations on real output growth and inflation. Using this model, we make clear structural relationships among a term structure of real and nominal interest rates, utility form and underlying economic factors (in particular, inflation expectation). Notably, we show that, if (1) the EIS is less than one, (2) the agent is comparatively more risk-averse relative to time-separable utility, (3) short-term interest rates are pro-cyclical, and (4) the rate of expected inflation is negatively correlated with the rate of real output growth and its expected rate, then a nominal yield curve can have a low instantaneous riskless rate and an upward slope.