Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule

It is well known that there is a large degree of uncertainty around Rogoff's consensus half‐life of the real exchange rate. To obtain a more efficient estimator, we develop a system method that combines the Taylor rule and a standard exchange rate model to estimate half‐lives. Further, we propose a median unbiased estimator for the system method based on the generalized method of moments with non‐parametric grid bootstrap confidence intervals. Applying the method to real exchange rates of 18 developed countries against the US dollar, we find that most half‐life estimates from the single equation method fall in the range of 3–5 years, with wide confidence intervals that extend to positive infinity. In contrast, the system method yields median‐unbiased estimates that are typically shorter than 1 year, with much sharper 95% confidence intervals. Our Monte Carlo simulation results are consistent with an interpretation of these results that the true half‐lives are short but long half‐life estimates from single‐equation methods are caused by the high degree of uncertainty of these methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the new export sector in developing countries

Abstract

Many developing countries are establishing a new export sector by accepting foreign direct investment. Developing a three-sectors three-factors general equilibrium model with tariff, this paper considers the condition under which the acceptance of direct investment is desirable for the developing countries. We show that the factor intensity rankings among the sectors play a key role on the welfare effects and that direct investment increases the output of both the new export and the traditional export sector and promotes the export-led growth in developing countries.     

Modeling the performance of US direct investment in Japan: Some empirical estimates

Foreign firms' direct investments in Japan increased from about $930 million in 1984 to $2.2 billion in 1987, and are still increasing at a rapid rate. Most of these investments come from the United States and Europe. In this paper a short-run model for the performance of a foreign parent firm's subsidiary in Japan is presented. The model is based on theories presented by Hymer, Caves, Buckley and Casson, among others, and consists of two equations: one for profitability and the other for growth. Duality is used to relate a parent firm's activities to its subsidiary firm's profitability. The model is estimated using data for US firms' subsidiaries in the Japanese chemical industry. We find that for jointly owned subsidiaries (joint ventures), imports from US parent firms and the R&D spending by both US and Japanese parent firms are major determinants of profitability and growth. US firms' fully owned subsidiaries, however, exhibit considerably different profit and growth behavior than their jointly owned counterparts. Because of the small sample sizes used, it is not possible to ascertain the sources of the observed differences.     

Adoption and policy implications of Japan’s new corporate governance practices after the reform

In this paper we explain the process and policy implications of Japanese firms’ adoption of recently reformed corporate governance practices. We use a selective adaptation framework in doing so. We present some qualitative predictions about the possible outcome of their adoption process. One advantage of our approach is that we can describe various aspects of the evolutionary process of Japan’s corporate governance reform as a system in a consistent manner, rather than as independent pieces. Our predictions provide policy implications and are empirically testable. Japan’s post-bubble corporate governance reform has been extensive and involves the enactment and revisions of many relevant laws and affected institutions. Japan’s aim has been to install US-like practices (the de facto global standard), with these practices replacing the now tarnished bank-centered practices, and to facilitate Japanese industry in regaining global competitiveness. However, we show that Japanese businesses’ adoption of US practices has been selective and efficiency and other policy implications of such behavior are potentially dysfunctional.     

Returns to scale: concept,estimation and analysis of Japan's turbulent 1964–88 economy

Abstract There is policy interest in factoring productivity growth into technical progress and returns to scale components. Our approach uses exact index number methods to reduce the parameters that must be estimated, and allows us to exploit the cross‐sectional dimension of plant‐level panel data. We show that the same equation can also be used to estimate ‘Harberger’ scale economies and technical progress indicators that require fewer assumptions. Estimates of the elasticity of scale for Japanese establishments in three major industries over 1964–88 are presented. Our study spans the high growth era of the 1960s, two oil shocks, and other exogenous shocks.     

Aggregation under complete markets

This paper proves a complete market aggregation result for a multiple good economy in which the consumers have time-additive, von Neumann–Morgenstern utility functions. This result applies to all concave intraperiod functions, and provides a contrast to many of the results in the microeconomics literature which depend on such stringent assumptions as linear Engel curves.     

From duty to right: The role of public education in the transition to aging societies

This paper argues that the introduction of compulsory schooling in early industrialization promoted the growth process that eventually led to a vicious cycle of population aging and negative pressure on education policy. In the early phases of industrialization, public education was undesirable for the young poor who relied on child labor. Compulsory schooling therefore discouraged childbirth, while the accompanying industrialization stimulated their demand for education. The subsequent rise in the share of the old population, however, limited government resources for education, placing heavier financial burdens on the young. This induced further fertility decline and population aging, and the resulting cycle may have delayed the growth of advanced economies in the last few decades.