The future of new religions

The category of “new religions” is somewhat controversial, but fringe minorities remain an interesting starting point in order to assess the future of religion. Contrary to what many expected in the 1970s, interest in religion in general has not declined in the Western world, organized religion has not disappeared, and we have not witnessed an explosion of “cults”. Learning from these past sociological prophecies that failed, we may speculate on the future in more realistic terms. New religious movements will not disappear, but they will not meet with an exceptional success either, this paper predicts, because models marginalizing them as based on brainwashing or being a form of religious kitsch, although criticized within the academic community, serve a basic psycho-cultural need of explaining away unpopular choices of our fellow human beings, and will probably not disappear from popular and media prejudice.     

Unobserved heterogeneity in stochastic cost frontier models: an application to Swiss nursing homes

Housing price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios are among the most widely monitored indicators of housing market conditions. While these ratios tend to fluctuate around a constant level or a mild trend over the long term, they also tend to deviate from these benchmarks for protracted periods. Traditional unit root tests often indicate the presence of a unit root. This article uses the framework of fractional integration to test the persistence of price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios in a sample of 16 OECD countries spanning four decades. The results indicate that the ratios are highly persistent. The possibility that persistence estimates may be affected by structural breaks in the series is also considered, but evidence of such breaks is found only in a very limited number of cases. Policy action may be required if high price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios have adverse social and economic consequences. Policies should be guided by a careful analysis of the factors behind high ratios.     

Rising household debt: Its causes and macroeconomic implications--a long-period analysis

The article analyses the rise in household indebtedness fromthe point of view of its causes and long-run macroeconomic implications.The analysis is focussed on the US case. Differently from life-cycleinterpretations of the phenomenon, and from interpretationsin terms of erratic deviations of current income flows fromtheir long-run trend, the rising household debt is viewed asthe outcome of persistent changes in income distribution andgrowing income inequalities. Through household debt, low wagesappear to have been brought to coexist with relatively highlevels of aggregate demand, thus providing the solution to thecontradiction between the necessity of high and rising consumptionlevels, for the growth of the system's actual output, and aframework of antagonistic conditions of distribution which keepswithin limits the real income of the vast majority of society.The question of the long-run sustainability of this substitutionof loans for wages is finally discussed.     

PORTFOLIO SELECTION WITH MONOTONE MEAN-VARIANCE PREFERENCES

We propose a portfolio selection model based on a class of monotone preferences that coincide with mean-variance preferences on their domain of monotonicity, but differ where mean-variance preferences fail to be monotone and are therefore not economically meaningful. The functional associated with this new class of preferences is the best approximation of the mean-variance functional among those which are monotonic. We solve the portfolio selection problem and we derive a monotone version of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which has two main features: (i) it is, unlike the standard CAPM model, arbitrage free, (ii) it has empirically testable CAPM-like relations. The monotone CAPM has thus a sounder theoretical foundation than the standard CAPM and a comparable empirical tractability.     

Urban sustainability and knowledge: Theoretical heterogeneity and the need of a transdisciplinary framework. A tale of four towns

The academic debate on «sustainable city» is like a large arena, where heterogeneous approaches and contributions, coming from different disciplines, flow into without converging on a common vision. The growing awareness that an increasing percentage of the world's population now lives in urban areas makes the organization of this space a crucial issue for global sustainable development. In order to acquire this challenge, urban studies need to overcome conceptual oppositions, seeking new integrated responses to implement the principle of sustainability at urban scale. This effort requires a new managerial approach of science and policy, which can be based on a transdisciplinary vision to knowledge production. The paper is divided into four different sections. The first and second sections review the theoretical literature on urban sustainability and explore the conceptual relations between knowledge and knowledge production in urban governance processes. The third section presents a comparative empirical analysis based on a survey of 2213 questionnaires carried out in four different urban contexts. The fourth and last section outlines the conclusion, suggesting a new approach to manage knowledge in urban governance, in a trans-disciplinary perspective.     

Market Organization and Propagation of Shocks: The Furniture Industry in Germany and Italy

In this paper we study the furniture industry in two European countries, Germany and Italy. Although the two industries are characterized by very similar output and technology, they differ widely in terms of market organization, most notably the distribution of firms by size, and the organization of retail. We find some evidences that these differences have an influence on the dynamic behavior of industry output, prices and exports in the two countries.     

Eastern European Economic Integration and Foreign Direct Investment

Economic transition in Eastern Europe should generate market growth. In addition, current discussions on economic integration and the development of a free-trade area in Eastern Europe will improve market accessibility. These two forces will significantly affect the strategies by which external firms will choose to supply markets in Eastern Europe. This paper examines the ways in which supply strategy is likely to change. We show that both market growth and improved market accessibility will lead the external firms to switch from exporting to foreign direct investment. However, market growth is likely to lead to dispersed investment in the growing economies, whereas increased market accessibility, by establishing an integrated regional bloc in Eastern Europe, is more likely to lead to concentrated investment plus infra-regional exports to the remainder of the regional bloc. The switch from exporting to local production through foreign direct investment will favor consumers through lowered prices but will harm national producers by depressing profit margins.     

Problemi di minimax di tipo discreto: Un approccio unificato mediante il teorema dell'alternativa di Motzkin

Si dimostrano delle condizioni del primo ordine, alcune necessarie e altre sufficienti per problemi di minimax di tipo discreto, utilizzando prevalentemente il teorema dell'alternativa di Motzkin.

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In this paper discrete minimax problems are considered.Some first order optimality conditions for minimax problems in hypothesis of different kind about the set of constraints are proved.We don't suppose that the set is convex, as treated by V. F. Dem'yanov and V. M. Malozemov.For the proofs it has often been used the alternative Motzkin's theorem.

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Pervenuto il 28-3-82

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Lavoro eseguito nell'ambito del progetto di ricerca «Equilibrio in modelli matematici con aspettative razionali».     

Su un problema di minimax discreto

Nell'articolo si applicano al problema di minimax discreto dei dadi truccati due condizioni di minimax locale, una necessaria, sostanzialmente già nota, e l'altra sufficiente, originale, contenute in un precedente lavoro dell'autore. Si dimostra che una distribuzione di probabilità per la qualen somme consecutive sono equiprobabili e di probabilità massima verifica la condizione necessaria e che sotto due ulteriori ipotesi, che in pratica appaiono spesso verificate, tale distribuzione verifica altresì la condizione sufficiente di minimax locale. Si deduce quindi un risultato di Clemens.     

The Determinants of Organizational Change and Structural Inertia: Technological and Organizational Factors

There are a growing body of theoretical work, wide anecdotal evidence, and a few large-scale empirical studies supporting the view that business firms quite rarely change their organizational structure, a phenomenon usually referred to in the literature as structural inertia. The present paper aims to analyze empirically the determinants of structural inertia and organizational change. As far as we know, this work constitutes the first attempt to directly address such issues through econometric estimates based on a large, longitudinal dataset at plant level. For this purpose, we consider changes of the organizational structure within a sample composed of 438 Italian manufacturing plants observed from 1975 to 1996. More precisely, we specify and test a duration model of the likelihood of an individual plant changing the number of hierarchical tiers after a spell r, provided that no change has occurred up to T. We also analyze the direction of change, distinguishing increases from decreases of the number of managerial layers. We consider a set of plant- and industry-specific explanatory variables that are expected to induce or oppose organizational change. The findings show that the adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies and new human-resources management practices favors organizational change. On the contrary, the presence of sunk costs and the extent of influence activities figure prominently in explaining structural inertia of business organizations.