Naturoids: From a dream to a paradox

The human ambition to reproduce natural objects and processes has a long history, and ranges from pure dreams to actual design: from Icarus's wings to modern-day robotics and bioengineering. The concept of naturoid has been introduced in the last decade or so, for referring to man's attempts to reproduce natural phenomena. The development of naturoids may be viewed as a special class of technological activity, distinct from the general class of technology. The concept of naturoid should be useful for methodological research aimed at finding possible common rules, potentialities and constraints characterizing the human effort to reproduce natural objects.Tacitly, many designers think that the continuing improvement of a naturoid consists in its ever-growing overlap with the natural instance, and that the holy grail, as it were, is the complete reconstruction of a natural object of process, from its external appearance to its inner workings. This paper tries to show that a naturoid is always the result of a reduction of the complexity of natural objects, due to an unavoidable multiple selection strategy. Nevertheless, the reproduction process implies that naturoids take on their own new complexity, resulting in a transfiguration of the natural exemplars and their performances, leading to a true innovation explosion. As a matter of fact, the core performances of contemporary naturoids improve, but, paradoxically, the more a naturoid develops, the further away it moves from its natural counterpart. Therefore, naturoids will more and more affect our relationships with advanced technologies and with nature, but in ways quite beyond our predictive capabilities.     

The economics of netting in financial networks

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - Can the netting of on-balance-sheet interbank assets and liabilities be useful in thwarting financial contagion during a systemic crisis episode?...     

Time varying stock return predictability: Evidence from US sectors

This paper argues that dividend yield stock return predictability is time-varying. We conjecture that such time-variation is linked to the business cycle. Employing monthly data for US sector portfolios we estimate 5-year rolling fixed window predictive regressions. The resulting series of time-varying predictive coefficients is regressed on industrial production growth and a recession dummy. Our results support the view of a negative relationship between predictability and output growth. That is the strength of the predictive relationship between returns and the dividend yield is stronger during contractionary periods, while during expansions the magnitude of the relationship declines.     

Multinationals without Advantages

We question the widespread argument that firms embarking on foreign direct investments must possess some specific advantages to offset the penalties of operating across national and cultural boundaries. A simple model shows that firms might invest abroad to capture local advantages through geographical proximity of plant location, rather than to exploit existing ones. Because of spatially bounded spillovers, laggard firms might use foreign investments to acquire location-specific knowledge, whereas leading firms might prefer costly exports to avoid the dissipation of their advantages.
JEL classification: F 23; O 32; L 22     

Concentration and public policies in the broadcasting industry: the future of television

New technologies are deeply transforming the broadcasting industry. What we have seen so far is only the beginning of a long story. Inevitably, industry regulations must adapt, which means that a wide-ranging rethink of current practices is required. In order to assess the likely evolution of the industry, this article decomposes it into a number of components, from conception of programmes to their broadcasting, including distribution, storage and licensing. Contrary to popular expectations, the analysis suggests that the current high degree of concentration will, if anything, increase. The policy implication is that regulation, so far driven by now obsolete technological constraints, should increasingly emphasize promoting competition.     

Can Linear Predictability Models Time Bull and Bear Real Estate Markets? Out-of-Sample Evidence from REIT Portfolios

A recent literature has shown that REIT returns contain strong evidence of bull and bear dynamic regimes that may be best captured using nonlinear econometric models of the Markov switching type. In fact, REIT returns would display regime shifts that are more abrupt and persistent than in the case of other asset classes. In this paper we ask whether and how simple linear predictability models of the vector autoregressive (VAR) type may be extended to capture the bull and bear patterns typical of many asset classes, including REITs. We find that nonlinearities are so deep that it is impossibile for a large family of VAR models to either produce similar portfolio weights or to yield realized, ex-post out-of-sample long-horizon portfolio performances that may compete with those typical of bull and bear models. A typical investor with intermediate risk aversion and a 5-year horizon ought to be ready to pay an annual fee of up to 5.7 % to have access to forecasts of REIT returns that take their bull and bear dynamics into account instead of simpler, linear forecast.     

The role of institutional investors in propagating the crisis of 2007–2008

Using novel data on investors' bond portfolios, we study the contagion of the crisis from securitized bonds to corporate bonds. When securitized bonds became “toxic” in August 2007, mutual funds retained the now illiquid securitized bonds and sold corporate bonds. Funds with negative flows or high liquidity needs liquidated more than others. Yield spreads increased more for corporate bonds whose pre-crisis bondholders were more heavily exposed to securitized bonds, compared to same-issuer bonds held by unexposed investors. The findings suggest that liquidity-constrained investors with exposure to securitized bonds played a role in propagating the crisis from securitized to corporate bonds.     

Financial Innovation and Information: The Role of Derivatives When a Market for Information Exists

We study the effects of financial innovation in a model of endogenousinformation acquisition. We determine the conditions under whichthe introduction of a derivative written on an existing stockincreases or decreases the incentive to purchase information.We show that financial innovation produces some effects whichhold across informational structures and others which differ.The former coincide with the few empirical results that arerobust in the literature (effects on prices, risk premia, andvolatility), while the latter coincide with the ones that differexperiment by experiment (effects on volume, correlation betweenvolume and volatility, and market informational efficiency).     

Telecom reforms in the EU: Prices and consumers' satisfaction

The paper shows the impact of privatization and liberalization on consumers in the telecommunication sector for 15 EU countries. Policy reforms are summarized by the OECD regulatory indicators (REGREF) that consider the extent of privatization, vertical disintegration, and market entry. After controlling for other country variables, first, a test of the impact of ownership and regulatory changes on consumer prices is given. In the second step, the Eurobarometer data on consumers' satisfaction about quality and prices of the telecommunication service are considered. The analysis confirms the importance of market regulation in reducing prices but minimizes the role played by privatization per se. Overall, the findings offer only mixed evidence, and somehow contradict, the hypothesis that all the reforms work in a similar way across the EU countries.     

Mimicking repurchases

We study the tendency of firms to mimic the repurchase announcements of their industry counterparts. We argue that a firm, by repurchasing its shares, sends a positive signal about itself and a negative one about its competitors. This induces the competing firms to mimic the behavior of the repurchasing firm by repurchasing themselves. Using a broad sample of US firms from the period 1984–2002, we show that, in concentrated industries, a repurchase announcement lowers the stock price of the other firms in the same industry. The other firms react by repurchasing themselves to undo these negative effects. Repurchases are chosen as a strategic reaction to other firms’ repurchase decisions and are not motivated by the desire to time the market, i.e., to take advantage of a significantly undervalued stock price. Therefore, repurchasing firms in more concentrated industries experience a lower increase in value in comparison with their counterparts in less concentrated industries in the post-announcement era. Alternative methodologies used to estimate long-term performance confirm that it is only the repurchasing firms in low concentration industries that outperform the market, their non-repurchasing peers, and their counterparts in more concentrated industries by amounts that are economically and statistically significant.