Multinationals and structural changes

The effects of the activities of multinational corporations on the economy of the Federal Republic of Germany have hardly ever been examined empirically. The role of the multinational corporations (MNCs) in the process of structural change had not been studied either until an enquiry was recently undertaken for the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs¹. The following article is based on the expert report which deals with this and other aspects for the first time and is to be published shortly.     

Strategic supply chain management: Improving performance through a culture of competitiveness and knowledge development

For many firms, using their supply chains as competitive weapons has become a central element of the strategic management process in recent years. Drawing on the resource‐based view and theory from the organizational learning and information‐processing literatures, this study uses a sample of 201 firms to examine the influence of a culture of competitiveness and knowledge development on supply chain performance in varied market turbulence conditions. We found that synergies exist between a culture of competitiveness and knowledge development: their interaction has a positive association with performance. In addition, based on behavioral and contingency theories, we found that market turbulence moderates these relationships, having a positive influence on the knowledge development–performance link and a negative influence on the culture of competitiveness–performance link. Managers who are confident about the level of market turbulence they will face can use this sense to decide whether to emphasize developing either a culture of competitiveness or knowledge development in their supply chains. For those firms whose managers are unlikely to be able to predict the degree of turbulence they will face over time, a focus on both a culture of competitiveness and knowledge development is critical to ensuring success. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social norms and the indirect evolution of conditional cooperation

We develop a model of social norms and cooperation in large societies. Within this framework we use an indirect evolutionary approach to study the endogenous formation of preferences and the co-evolution of norm compliance. The multiplicity of equilibria, which emerges in the presence of social norms, is linked to the evolutionary analysis: individuals face situations where many others cooperate as well as situations where a majority free-rides. The evolutionary adaptation to such heterogenous environments favors conditional cooperators, who condition their pro-social behavior on the others’ cooperation. As conditional cooperators react flexibly to their social environment, they dominate free-riders as well as unconditional cooperators.     

Frank Esser

Ohne Zusammenfassung

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Frank Esser

     

Structural changes in world trade since the oil crisis

The sudden shock of the fivefold increase of the price of oil in the autumn of 1973 has been reflected since in the world trade by structural changes in its composition by categories of goods and its regional distribution. How has the international trade coped with this shock, and which more recent tendencies can be observed in the structure of world trade, not least as a result of cyclical impulses?     

Possible effects of EMU on German long-term interest rates

It is often argued that long-term German bonds suffer from an inflation premium caused by EMU. A decomposition of long rates shows that factors besides inflationary expectations and conversion risk affect the long bond yield. The following paper therefore discusses a more complete set of channels through which currency union affects interest rates and argues that they do not all point in the direction of rising rates. Data generating processes for long-term bonds are specified and tested for structural breaks. Absence of a structural break is interpreted as evidence against a premium caused by EMU. The authors would like to thank the participants of the German American Academic Council (GAAC) workshop “The Political Economy of European Integration” in Bremen, August 1996, and especially Paul Bergin for their helpful comments. Financial support from the GAAC is gratefully acknowledged.     

Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements

Ideally, early warning indicators (EWI) of banking crises should be evaluated on the basis of their performance relative to the macroprudential policy maker’s decision problem. We translate several practical aspects of this problem — such as difficulties in assessing the costs and benefits of various policy measures, as well as requirements for the timing and stability of EWIs — into statistical evaluation criteria. Applying the criteria to a set of potential EWIs, we find that the credit-to-GDP gap and a new indicator, the debt service ratio (DSR), consistently outperform other measures. The credit-to-GDP gap is the best indicator at longer horizons, whereas the DSR dominates at shorter horizons.     

Robust risk aggregation with neural networks

We consider settings in which the distribution of a multivariate random variable is partly ambiguous. We assume the ambiguity lies on the level of the dependence structure, and that the marginal distributions are known. Furthermore, a current best guess for the distribution, called reference measure, is available. We work with the set of distributions that are both close to the given reference measure in a transportation distance (e.g., the Wasserstein distance), and additionally have the correct marginal structure. The goal is to find upper and lower bounds for integrals of interest with respect to distributions in this set. The described problem appears naturally in the context of risk aggregation. When aggregating different risks, the marginal distributions of these risks are known and the task is to quantify their joint effect on a given system. This is typically done by applying a meaningful risk measure to the sum of the individual risks. For this purpose, the stochastic interdependencies between the risks need to be specified. In practice, the models of this dependence structure are however subject to relatively high model ambiguity. The contribution of this paper is twofold: First, we derive a dual representation of the considered problem and prove that strong duality holds. Second, we propose a generally applicable and computationally feasible method, which relies on neural networks, in order to numerically solve the derived dual problem. The latter method is tested on a number of toy examples, before it is finally applied to perform robust risk aggregation in a real‐world instance.     

A Sustainable Pathway to Consumer Wellbeing. The Role of Anticonsumption and Consumer Empowerment

This study investigates the effect of different anticonsumption constructs on consumer wellbeing. The study assumes that people will only lower their level of consumption if doing so does not also lower personal wellbeing. More precisely, this research investigates how specific subtypes of sustainable anticonsumption (e.g., voluntary simplicity, collaborative consumption, and debt-free living) relate to different states of consumer's wellbeing (e.g., financial, psychosocial, and subjective wellbeing). This work also examines whether consumer empowerment can improve personal wellbeing and strengthen the anticonsumption wellbeing relationship. The results show that voluntarily foregoing consumption does not reduce wellbeing and consumer empowerment plays a significant role in supporting sustainable pathways to consumer wellbeing. This study reasons that empowerment improves consumer sovereignty, but may be detrimental for consumers heavily concerned about debt-free living. The present investigation concludes by proposing implications for public and consumer policymakers wishing to promote appropriate sustainable (anticonsumption) pathways to consumer wellbeing.