The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States

We estimate state-dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We use a factor-augmented interacted vector autoregression (FAIVAR) model. This allows us to capture the time-varying monetary policy characteristics including the recent zero interest rate lower bound (ZLB) state, to account for the state of the business cycle and to address the limited information problem typically inherent in VARs. We identify government spending shocks by sign restrictions and use a government spending growth forecast series to account for the effects of anticipated fiscal policy. In our baseline specification, we find that government spending multipliers in a recession range from 3.56 to 3.79 at the ZLB. Away from the ZLB, multipliers in recessions range from 2.31 to 3.05. Several robustness analyses confirm that multipliers are higher, when the interest rate is lower and that multipliers in recessions exceed multipliers in expansions. Our results are consistent with theories that predict larger multipliers at the ZLB.     

A welfare evaluation of the 1986 tax reform for married couples in the United States

This paper evaluates the welfare effects of the 1986 Tax Reform Act (TRA86). We rely on different welfare metrics, which fully retain preference heterogeneity and are based on different ethical priors. We estimate utility functions with preference heterogeneity on the basis of structural models of family labor supply. Then, using these estimated preferences, we compute and compare different well-being rankings corresponding to different ways of measuring well-being. Finally, we identify the losers and the winners of TRA86, in absolute and relative terms, for each of the welfare metrics.     

HUMAN CAPITAL AND URBAN GROWTH IN ITALY, 1981–2001

Over the last decades of the XX century, human capital has emerged as a critical source of agglomeration economies fueling urban growth in advanced economies. Focusing on the Italian case, this paper assesses the contribution of human capital to urban growth, the latter gauged by employment growth between 1981 and 2001. A 10% higher share of college‐educated residents prompted a higher growth in employment in the 0.5–2.2% range. These results hold controlling for a wide set of urban characteristics and using an instrumental variable approach. By exploiting a spatial localization model, we disentangle the estimated effect into two components related to higher productivity and to higher life quality, respectively. We found that the former contributed to more than 60% of the effect at municipal level, and to over 90% at the wider local labor market level.     

Money Creation in the Eurozone: An Empirical Assessment of the Endogenous and the Exogenous Money Theories

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to strengthen our understanding of the money creation process in the Eurozone for 1999–2016 period, through an empirical assessment of two main monetary theories, namely the (Post Keynesian) endogenous money theory and the (Monetarist) exogenous money theory. By applying a VAR and VECM methodology, we analyse the causal relationship among monetary reserves (or monetary base), bank deposits and bank loans. Our empirical analysis supports several propositions of the Post Keynesian endogenous money theory since (i) bank loans determine bank deposits, and (ii) bank deposits in turn determine monetary reserves.     

The Coming Coronavirus Crisis: What Can We Learn?

Intereconomics - The coronavirus pandemic is bringing with it the prospect of severe financial and economic crises. The article investigates its economic consequences in terms of financial...     

Modeling the effects of grade retention in high school

A dynamic discrete‐choice model is set up to estimate the effects of grade retention in high school, both in the short run (end‐of‐year evaluation) and in the long run (drop‐out and delay). In contrast to other evaluation approaches, this model captures essential treatment heterogeneity and controls for grade‐varying unobservable determinants. In addition, forced track downgrading is considered as an alternative remedial measure. Our results indicate that grade retention has a neutral effect on academic achievement in the short run. In the long run, grade retention, just like forced downgrading, has adverse effects on schooling outcomes and, more so, for less able pupils.     

An investigation on the effectiveness of hedonic versus utilitarian message appeals in luxury product communication

This research studies the role of hedonic versus utilitarian message appeals in luxury goods communication, investigating how using one or the other type of message appeal affects product perceived luxuriousness and, in turn, product attitude, and consumers' willingness to buy. This research presents three experiments in which message appeal and brand prominence have been manipulated, while perception of luxuriousness, attitude toward luxury products, willingness to buy them and consumers' conspicuous consumption orientation have been measured. Hedonic, compared with utilitarian, message appeals increase perceived luxuriousness, thereby increasing product attitude and consumers' willingness to buy the product promoted. This effect is particularly likely to occur for consumers with lower levels of conspicuous consumption orientation and for products carrying lowly prominent logos. We extend the literature on luxury communication by studying the effect of hedonic versus utilitarian message appeals on consumers' responses, and the literature on hedonism versus utilitarianism by studying this dichotomy in the context of luxury goods communication. This research suggests that different message appeals used in luxury goods communication produce different effects on consumers' responses and that this differential effectiveness is particularly likely to manifest for certain types of consumers and certain types of luxury products.     

Hard and soft law approaches to addressing psychosocial risks in Europe: lessons learned in the development of the Italian approach

Psychosocial risks in the workplace have been identified as some of the most significant emerging risks, particularly since issues such as work-related stress, which is closely linked to psychosocial risks, are widely recognised as major challenges in modern occupational safety and health. This paper presents the policy framework and key initiatives that have been implemented for the management of psychosocial risks in the workplace in Europe. It discusses several approaches and initiatives, both from a hard and soft law perspective, that have been implemented at European Union and national level. Within this context, it discusses the key issues that pertain to the development of national approaches, focussing as an example on the Management Standards for work-related stress developed in the UK and their recent adaptation in Italy. The Italian approach is discussed in detail as an example that may highlight key process elements in the development of psychosocial risk management policies, and promote good practice in this area through lessons learned. It is concluded that it is more pressing now than ever for a critical evaluation of efforts employed so far to address psychosocial risks to be conducted, and an approach at European level to be developed that will allow both flexibility and a certain level of benchmarking across members states. Such an approach can be supported by European bodies, responsible for surveillance and promotion of good practice, working in collaboration with similar national bodies.     

Leverage effect breakdowns and flight from risky assets

Though part of ‘market lore’, in 1976 Black first reported the inverse relationship between price and volatility, calling it the ‘leverage effect’. Without providing evidence, in 1988 Black claimed that in the months leading up to the October 1987 crash the relationship changed: price and volatility both rose. Using daily data for the Old VIX, derived from S&P 100 Index option market prices, to estimate intra-quarterly regressions of implied volatility against price from Q2 1986 to Q1 2012, the author verifies Black’s claim for the October 1987 crash, and interestingly, for subsequent periods of crisis. He then analyses several constant-elasticity-of-variance optimal portfolio rules, which include the leverage effect, to show the elasticity sign switch implies that investors reduce their risky asset holdings to zero.     

Does the perception of incongruence hurt more? Customers’ responses to CSR crises affecting the main reputation dimension of a company

ABSTRACT

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) generates benefits for companies and society. However, CSR exposes a company to potential damage when a critical event, such as a crisis, disconfirms the CSR of a corporate reputation. The present article introduces to the crisis management literature the notion of consumer-perceived incongruence (CPI) between corporate reputation and crises. Our first experimental study demonstrates that a high CPI – compared to a low CPI – worsens consumer responses in terms of attitude towards the corporation (ATC), word of mouth (WOM) and purchase intention (PI). The second study shows that these effects are mediated by the perception of a state of discomfort on the part of the consumer. The third study suggests that, in cases of high CPI, the corporate crisis response strategy of apology outperforms that of compensation in reducing the negative effects of discomfort on consumer responses. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.