Current account sustainability in advanced economies

This paper investigates the sustainability of current accounts in advanced economies using a panel of 27 countries and annual data over the 1980–2008 period. Relying on various panel unit root tests and a sequential panel selection method, we find strong evidence in favour of nonlinear but stationary current account trajectories only for 7 countries, while the remaining 20 appear to be non-stationary and thus unsustainable. Our analysis indicates that careful empirical modelling of current account dynamics, particularly in relation to cross-section dependence and nonlinear behaviour, is crucial for appropriate economic policy-making.     

Rank tests for short memory stationarity

We propose a rank-test of the null hypothesis of short memory stationarity possibly after linear detrending.     

Cooperating in time of crisis: war,commons, and inequality in Renaissance Lombardy

This article addresses the question of how exogenous shocks led to economic redistribution at a local rural community level in the pre‐industrial period, and how inequality can be limited (or not) by institutions and endogenous social structures within the community itself. This article presents a micro‐analytical study conducted mainly on unpublished sources, focusing on a boundary area (the Geradadda) disputed by Milan and Venice during the long period of the Italian Wars (1494–1559) in a broad European perspective. To understand the impact of wars, the management of local commons and communal assets is analysed in the more general context of the management of local finances. This research shows how local communities organized cooperative behaviours for the defence of local resources, developing innovative credit systems and encouraging a process of redistribution. Before other important factors—such as the distribution of wealth or of local political and social power—cooperation between social groups and the role played by elites were the keystones to limiting the increase in inequality.     

NETS: Network estimation for time series

We model a large panel of time series as a vector autoregression where the autoregressive matrices and the inverse covariance matrix of the system innovations are assumed to be sparse. The system has a network representation in terms of a directed graph representing predictive Granger relations and an undirected graph representing contemporaneous partial correlations. A LASSO algorithm called NETS is introduced to estimate the model. We apply the methodology to analyze a panel of volatility measures of 90 blue chips. The model captures an important fraction of total variability, on top of what is explained by volatility factors, and improves out‐of‐sample forecasting.     

Civil Conflict,Democratization, and Growth: Violent Democratization as Critical Juncture

In this paper, we provide an empirical investigation of the interaction between violent conflicts, democratization, and growth in the “third wave” of democratization. The effect of democratization is weakened when taking into account the incidence of civil conflict. The results show that the growth effect of democratization is heterogeneous and depends on the democratization scenario. Peaceful transitions to democracy have a significant positive effect on growth that is even larger than reported previously in the literature, whereas violent transitions have no, or even negative, growth effects.     

Is the Optimism in CEO’s Letters to Shareholders Sincere? Impression Management Versus Communicative Action During the Economic Crisis

In this study, we explore the sincerity of the rhetorical tone of 664 annual letters to shareholders (CEO letters). Prior studies adopt Impression Management theory to predict that firms obfuscate failures and emphasize successes to unfairly enhance their image and maintain organizational legitimacy. Yuthas et al. (J Bus Ethics 41:141–157, 2002) challenged such a view, showing that firms reporting earnings surprises engage in ethical discourse with shareholders. We adopt the methodology of Yuthas et al. (J Bus Ethics 41:141–157, 2002) to explore the association between firm performance and the rhetorical features of CEO letters in a large sample of Fortune 500 firms in the wake of the global economic crisis. In contrast to most prior research, we find that optimistic tone is congruent with both past and future performance. We conclude that under tough macroeconomic conditions, incentives to distort public information strategically are low. Rather, firms tend to engage in communicative action aimed at dialoguing with shareholders through sincere disclosure. However, in our conclusions, we warn about the impact of accounting and rhetorical manipulation on the congruence between optimistic tone and financial performance.     

Multi-scale integrated assessment of soybean biodiesel in Brazil

Developing counties are often believed to have excellent conditions for biofuel production, however studies aimed at assessing the sustainability of large scale biofuel programs have generally focused on a few variables related to one scientific domain and one scale. Contrary to this approach, this paper analyzes soybean biodiesel in Brazil using a parallel biophysical and economic assessment at different scales. A Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach is applied as a scenario analysis tool. A soybean biodiesel energy balance for the specific conditions of Brazil is included and the energy ratio turns out to be 1.09. This means that the energy delivered is higher than the energy invested, however the net energy is very low. The economic impacts are analyzed through input-output analysis. The results show that soybean biodiesel increases energy consumption per hour of work without a corresponding increase in economic labor productivity. Consequently the already low energy efficiency of Brazilian production could get worse. Although Brazil has large expanses of land, the substitution of 20% fossil diesel (i.e. just 3.3% of the country's primary energy consumption) with fully renewable biodiesel might destroy protected areas and forests and increase the GHGs emitted.     

INPUT AND OUTPUT INVENTORIES IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM*

We build and estimate a two‐sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two types of inventories: Input inventories facilitate the production of finished goods, output inventories yield utility services. The estimated model replicates the volatility and cyclicality of inventory investment and inventory‐to‐target ratios. Although inventories are an important element of the model’s propagation mechanism, shocks to inventory efficiency are not an important source of business cycles. When the model is estimated over two subperiods (pre‐ and post‐1984), changes in the volatility of inventory shocks or in structural parameters associated with inventories play a small role in reducing the volatility of output.     

Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition

This paper investigates the hypothesis that the causal effect of life expectancy on income per capita growth is non-monotonic. This hypothesis follows from the recent literature on unified growth, in which the demographic transition represents an important turning point for population dynamics and hence plays a central role for the transition from stagnation to growth. Results from different empirical specifications and identification strategies document that the effect is non-monotonic, negative (but often insignificant) before the onset of the demographic transition, but strongly positive after its onset. The results provide a new interpretation of the contradictory existing evidence and have relevant policy implications.