Disease and development: The role of life expectancy reconsidered

This note estimates the causal effect of life expectancy on per capita income and tests the hypothesis of a non-monotonic effect using finite mixture models. The results confirm the hypothesis and qualify recent evidence for a negative effect by Acemoglu and Johnson (2007).     

Long‐run relations in European electricity prices

This paper analyses the interdependencies existing in wholesale electricity prices in six major European countries. The results of a robust multivariate long‐run dynamic analysis reveal the presence of four highly integrated central European markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria). The trend shared by these four electricity markets appears to be common also to gas prices, but not to oil prices. The existence of a common long‐term dynamics among electricity prices and between electricity prices and gas prices can be explained by the similarity of the market design across Europe and by the same marginal generation technology. Since standard unit root and cointegration tests are not robust to the peculiar characteristics of electricity prices time series, we also develop a battery of robust inference procedures that should assure the reliability of our results. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The distribution of household consumption-expenditure budget shares

This paper explores the statistical properties of household consumption-expenditure budget share distributions – defined as the share of household total expenditure spent for purchasing a specific category of commodities – for a large sample of Italian households in the period 1989–2004. We find that household budget share distributions are fairly stable over time for each specific category, but profoundly heterogeneous across commodity categories. We then derive a parametric density that is able to satisfactorily characterize (from a univariate perspective) household budget share distributions and: (i) is consistent with the observed statistical properties of the underlying levels of household consumption-expenditure distributions; (ii) can accommodate the observed across-category heterogeneity in household budget-share distributions. Finally, we taxonomize commodity categories according to the estimated parameters of the proposed density. We show that the resulting classification is consistent with the traditional economic scheme that labels commodities as necessary, luxury or inferior.     

The effect of taxes on multinational debt location

We provide new evidence that differences in international tax rates and tax regimes affect multinational firms' debt location decisions. Our sample contains 8287 debt issues from 2437 firms headquartered in 23 different countries with debt-issuing subsidiaries in 59 countries. We analyze firms' marginal decisions of where to issue debt to investigate the influence of a comprehensive set of tax-related effects, including differences in personal and corporate tax rates, tax credit and exemption systems, and bi-lateral cross-country withholding taxes on interest and dividend payments. Our results show that differences in personal and corporate tax rates, the presence of dividend imputation or relief tax systems, the tax treatment of repatriated profits, and inter-country withholding taxes on dividends and interest significantly influence the decision of where to locate debt and the proportion of debt located abroad. Our results are robust to firm and issue specific factors and to the effect of legal regimes, debt market development, and exchange rate risk.     

Industrial coal demand in China: A provincial analysis

The general concern on the environmental implications of the rising demand for coal registered in China during the last few years has induced considerable research effort to produce accurate forecasts of China's energy requirements. Nevertheless, no previous study has modelled the coal demand in China at provincial level. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we estimate and forecast the Chinese demand for coal using panel data disaggregated by provinces and accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Second, given the spatial nature of the data, we explicitly capture the spatial autocorrelation among provinces using spatial econometrics. In particular, we specify the Chinese industrial coal demand at provincial level with fixed-effect spatial models. The empirical results show that the fixed-effect spatial ADL model is able to capture the existing interdependence between provinces. This model forecasts an average annual increase in coal demand to 2010 of nearly 2%.     

Dynamic analysis of interventions designed to achieve millennium development goals (MDG): The case of Ghana

An increasing number of countries are orientating their development strategies based on the millennium development goals (MDG), a broad set of directives agreed to by the United Nations (UN) in the year 2000. Developing coherent plans to achieve MDG has been complicated by their multidisciplinary nature, and by the complexity of the system being managed. The “system” here is the socio-economic construct within which populations live and operate. In an effort to support this planning process, various approaches have been developed to help realize MDG within specified budgets. The work described here complements the most commonly used approaches by analyzing the impact of alternative interventions in an integrated socio-economic-environmental framework. In doing so, we utilize system dynamics, which is well-suited to support the analysis of dynamic, complex issues such as those that characterize MDG planning. Such an approach allows us to estimate impacts of MDG-related interventions on the economic and demographic development of countries under study, as well as the possible synergies between and amongst selected interventions, e.g., those involving education and health. Results indicate that failure to account for such factors can lead to sub-optimal strategies. Our objective is thus to provide policy-makers with a more comprehensive view of the outcomes generated by alternative MDG interventions, with emphasis on the ability to finance given strategies.     

Pricing and hedging illiquid energy derivatives: An application to the JCC index

In this paper a simple strategy for pricing and hedging a swap on the Japanese crude oil cocktail (JCC) index is discussed. The empirical performance of different econometric models is compared in terms of their computed optimal hedge ratios, using monthly data on the JCC over the period January 2000–January 2006. An explanation to how to compute a bid/ask spread and to construct the hedging position for the JCC swap contract with variable oil volume is provided. The swap pricing scheme with backtesting and rolling regression techniques is evaluated. The empirical findings show that the price‐level regression model permits one to compute more precise optimal hedge ratios relative to its competing alternatives. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:464–487, 2008     

Resource boom and bust, 1885–1920: regional wealth evidence from probate records

Wealth micro-data from records probated by the Thunder Bay District Surrogate Court for 1885–1920 are examined. These data span the Canadian wheat boom era and find a break in wealth accumulation over the period 1900–1914. A bust follows the boom and real wealth during 1915–1920 is approximately 75% lower than 1910–1914. Regression results show the key determinants of wealth in the region to be time period variables, gender, literacy, occupation, marital status, and number of children. The boom had no long-term impact on individual wealth levels in the Thunder Bay District.     

An exercise in composite indicators construction: Assessing the sustainability of Italian regions

This paper presents a piece of research aimed at evaluating the relative sustainability of the Italian Regions. After selecting a core set of indicators, for which we referred to the EU Sustainable Development Strategy, we built a composite index and checked for its robustness. As a result we got ‘many numbers’, that is, a range of possible rankings for Italian Regions.     

Consumption, house prices, and collateral constraints: a structural econometric analysis

If borrowing capacity of indebted households is tied to the value of their home, house prices should enter a correctly specified aggregate Euler equation for consumption. I develop a simple two-agent, dynamic general equilibrium model in which home (collateral) values affect debt capacity and consumption possibilities for a fraction of the households. I then derive and estimate an aggregate consumption Euler equation, and estimate its structural parameters. The results provide robust support for housing prices as a driving force of consumption fluctuations.