A theory of predictable excess returns in real estate

A principal-agent model is employed to characterize the equilibrium mortgage contract. The value of a house depends on the actions of its owner but affects the wealth of both the owner and the lender who writes the mortgage contract with which the house is purchased. Because of this, the buyer is exposed to moral hazard. In some situations, this can lead to inefficient maintenance and predictable excess returns to home ownership. Even though there are potential buyers willing to pay back more money, the bank will not write loans for these consumers because of the adverse incentive effects of such an action.     

Supply Dynamics in the U.S. Hog Industry

A variety of methods and empirical techniques are now available for estimating dynamic economic relationships. Unfortunately, most dynamic modeling procedures rely heavily on the sample data for specification. This is due to a lack of a priori information useful for determining the appropriate lag structure. However, there is frequently a rich source of information that can be used to define lag structures in agricultural supply models. This information is related to the biological and physiological processes characterizing agricultural production. In this paper, a quarterly econometric model of supply response in the U.S. hog industry is specified and estimated. This model incorporates relevant biological features of hog production directly into the specification. The structural integrity of the model is evaluated by examining post-sample predictive ability and mean-path elasticities. The results indicate performance that is consistent with observed behavior in the U.S. hog industry. Nous disposons aujourd'hui de toute une gamme de méthodes et de techniques empiriques pour ?estimation des rapports économiques dynamiques. Malheureusement, la plupart des méthodes de modélisation dynamique dépendent étroitement, pour leurs spécifications, sur des données échantillonnées. Ceci découle ?un manque ?informations a priori utiles pour la détermination de la structure de retard appropriée. Toutefois, on dispose fréquemment ?une riche source ?informations qui peuvent servir à définir les structures de retard dans les modèles de ?offre en agriculture. Cette information est liée aux processus biologiques et physiologiques caractérisant la production agricole. Dans le présent document, nous procédons à la spécification et à ?estimation ?un modèle économétrique trimestriel du comportement de ?offre dans le secteur américain du pore. Ce modèle incorpore directement dans la spécification les caractéristiques biologiques pertinentes de la production porcine. Nous évaluons ?intégrité structurale du modèle en examinant ?aptitude prédictive post-échantillonnage et les valeurs moyennes ?élasticité. Nos résultats laissent conclure à une performance qui vient corroborer le comportement observé dans le secteur américain du porc.     

The permanent income hypothesis and the real interest rate: Some evidence from panel data

A test of the permanent income hypothesis in panel data is formulated taking into account both the time-series and cross-section variation in the rate of return. The over-identifying restrictions of the theory rejected.     

Sugarcane farming in KwaZulu: Two communities investigated

The social and economic impact of sugarcane farming in two rural communities in KwaZulu is described. Attention is focused on the cash benefits which accrue to those smallholders cultivating the crop. It was found that only a small percentage of smallholders could expect a monthly income equivalent to the household subsistence level. The majority of smallholders will continue to depend upon migrant remittances to meet their subsistence requirements as they will only obtain a supplementary income from sugarcane. The result of this is continued dependence on the sugarcane mill for financial assistance and the de facto loss of control by the smallholder over the utilization of his land. It is recommended that where the smallholder possesses less than three to four hectares of arable land, he should be encouraged to cultivate traditional food crops on a scientific basis rather than sugarcane.