Spieltheoretische Analyse von Konflikt und Kooperation

Mit dem diesj?hrigen Nobelpreis für Wirtschaftswissenschaften wurden die Forscher Robert Aumann und Thomas Schelling für ihre spieltheoretischen Beitr?ge zu Konflikt und Kooperation in (wiederholten) Spielen ausgezeichnet. Inwieweit haben die beiden Forscher die Spieltheorie weiterentwickelt? Auf welche zentralen sozialwissenschaftlichen Fragestellungen lassen sich ihre Erkenntnisse anwenden?     

Economic evaluation of BST-CarGel as an adjunct to microfracture vs microfracture alone in knee cartilage surgery

Objectives:

Knee cartilage damage is a common cause of referral for orthopedic surgery. Treatment aims to reduce pain and symptoms by repairing cartilage. Microfracture, the current standard of care, yields good short-term clinical outcomes; however, treatment might fail after 2–3 years. A Chitosan-Beta glycerolphosphate-based medical device (BST-CarGel) is used as an adjunct to microfracture and demonstrates improvements in quantity and quality of repaired tissue, potentially reducing the risk of treatment failure. This study aimed to establish the economic value of BST-CarGel vs microfracture alone in knee cartilage repair from the societal perspective, using Germany as the reference market.

Methods:

A decision tree with a 20-year time-horizon was constructed, in which undesirable clinical events were inferred following initial surgery. These events consisted of pain management, surgery, and total knee replacement. Clinical outcomes were taken from the pivotal clinical trial, supplemented by other literature. Data and assumptions were validated by a Delphi panel. All relevant resource use and costs for procedures and events were considered.

Results:

In a group of patients with all lesion sizes, the model inferred that BST-CarGel yields a positive return on investment at year 4 (with 20-year cumulative cost savings of €6448). Reducing the incremental risk of treatment failure gap between the device and microfracture by 25–50% does not alter this conclusion. Cost savings are greatest for patients with large lesions; results for patients with small lesions are more modest.

Limitations:

Clinical evidence for microfracture and other interventions varies in quality. Comparative long-term data are lacking. The comparison is limited to microfracture and looks only at costs without considering quality-of-life.

Conclusion:

BST-CarGel potentially represents a cost-saving alternative for patients with knee cartilage injury by reducing the risk of clinical events through regeneration of chondral tissue with hyaline characteristics. Since the burden of this condition is high, both to the patient and society, an effective and economically viable alternative is of importance.     

Agglomeration,tax competition,and fiscal equalization

This paper analyzes the impact of fiscal equalization on asymmetric tax competition when positive agglomeration externalities are present. It uses a model focusing on the strategic reason for capital taxes to demonstrate that per capita fiscal capacity equalization improves the spatial allocation of capital provided a sufficiently rich (marginally) larger region and sufficiently strong agglomeration externalities. If tax revenue is used to finance public goods, per capita fiscal capacity equalization generally cannot simultaneously eliminate public good inefficiency and spatial inefficiency. However, the achievement of full efficiency for ex ante identical regions requires excessive (full) equalization in the presence (absence) of agglomeration externalities.     

Performance of acquirers of divested assets: Evidence from the U.S. software industry

We provide a comparative analysis of acquirer returns in acquisitions of public firms, private firms, and divested assets. On the basis of a sample of 5,079 acquisitions by U.S. software industry companies during 1988–2008, we find that acquisitions of divested assets outperform acquisitions of privately held firms, which in turn outperform acquisitions of publicly held firms. While the higher returns for acquisitions of divested assets relative to stand‐alone acquisition targets can be explained by market efficiency arguments, seller distress and improved asset fit further enhance the positive returns of acquirers of divested assets consistent with the relative bargaining power explanation. Finally, we find that the effects of these buyer bargaining advantages are mutually strengthening and that they also hold for longer‐term acquirer performance Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enhancing the EU’s Energy Supply Security—An Evaluation of the Nabucco Project and an Introduction to Its Open Season Capacity Allocation Process

The Russian dominance of the European Union (EU)’s natural gas supplies has put the independence of the EU at risk. This paper presents an evaluation of the Nabucco gas pipeline project—considered by some to be the most economical link to new natural gas sources—to determine whether it would help the EU to diversify its gas supplies in a cost-effective way, thus improving its energy supply security in future years. Furthermore, an introduction to the Nabucco Open Season Capacity Allocation Process is given. Applying empirical methods and competitive pipeline benchmarking analysis, three hypotheses related to the Nabucco natural experiment are evaluated: while hypothesis (1) focuses on the strength of demand for the Nabucco pipeline transportation capacities, hypotheses (2) and (3) examine fair usage rights and overall cost effectiveness of this project. Empirical results show that, due to the EU’s increasing long-term gas demand and decreasing indigenous production, there is a strong demand for the Nabucco gas pipeline by gas shippers. Furthermore, the empirical survey reveals that Nabucco provides a fair capacity allocation of fifty percent to third party shippers. Finally, competitive benchmarking shows Nabucco is indeed a cost-effective new pipeline and a link to fresh natural gas sources for Europe. Based on these results, it is anticipated that “Nabucco” will not only remain the name of a famous opera, but will also become the term associated with one of the most successful energy projects in Europe.     

Heavily regulated,but promising prospects: Entry in the German Express Coach Market

Domestic express coach services in Germany have long been heavily restricted by regulation, although offerings comparable to countries like, for example, Great Britain or Sweden bear substantial opportunities for competition, the environment, and mobility. In this paper, we motivate market entry in the German express coach market for local public and integrated transport companies by high profitability rates in other countries and the availability of bus facilities and skills. This is followed by the evaluation of supply and demand. Supply is represented by an analysis of external and internal costs showing that express coaches have significant cost advantages that are intensified by the possible internalization of external costs. Demand is represented by a survey of customers that is evaluated with a conjoint analysis. Our results suggest a market share for express coach services in Germany of at least 5.3%.     

COPENHAGEN,CANCÚN AND THE LIMITS OF GLOBAL WELFARE ECONOMICS

The rise of a global welfare economics directed at the environmental challenges facing our planet represents a new policy phenomenon. This paper examines the most ambitious attempt so far to put such economics into practice via the Kyoto Protocol and more specifically the Clean Development Mechanism of the Protocol. The Copenhagen and Cancún climate change conferences have put an end to hopes of the Protocol serving as an effective tool in the mitigation of global warming. This failure of the new global welfare economics is the result of flawed principles, not just defective implementation.