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651.
Berthold Busch Matthias Diermeier Henry Goecke Michael Hüther 《Wirtschaftsdienst》2016,96(12):883-890
After the Brexit referendum’s leave outcome last summer, the new relationship between the UK and the EU has to be shaped institutionally. For the two bargaining parties the question now is which negotiation strategy to take. In order to choose the optimal strategy, the players have to factor in their time preferences. A game theoretical approach yields that the EU — no matter what is economically feasible in the short run — has to play a tough negotiation strategy if they care about the long run. This result is not a question of punishment but of pure economic rationale. 相似文献
652.
In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of
country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world
trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to “bottom-up” approaches, where world trade results from an
aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise
large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows.
相似文献
Stephane DeesEmail: |
653.
We propose an imperfect information model for the expectations of macroeconomic forecasters that explains differences in average disagreement levels across forecasters by means of cross-sectional heterogeneity in the variance of private noise signals. We show that the forecaster-specific signal-to-noise ratios determine both the average individual disagreement level and an individuals’ forecast performance: Forecasters with very noisy signals deviate strongly from the average forecasts and report forecasts with low accuracy. We take the model to the data by empirically testing for this implied correlation. Evidence based on data from the Surveys of Professional Forecasters for the USA and for the Euro Area supports the model for short- and medium-run forecasts but rejects it based on its implications for long-run forecasts. 相似文献
654.
Group polarization in the team dictator game reconsidered 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
While most papers on team decision-making find that teams behave more selfishly, less trustingly and less altruistically than
individuals, Cason and Mui (1997) report that teams are more altruistic than individuals in a dictator game. Using a within-subjects design we re-examine
group polarization by letting subjects make individual as well as team decisions in an experimental dictator game. In our
experiment teams are more selfish than individuals, and the most selfish team member has the strongest influence on team decisions.
Various explanations for the different findings in Cason and Mui (1997) and in our paper are discussed.
相似文献
655.
We study the determinants of East–West migration within Germany during the period 1990–2006, using administrative data, the German Microcensus and the German Socio‐Economic Panel. We find that in addition to income prospects and employment status, two well‐known determinants of migration, psychological and social factors play an important role in determining the migration decision. Men and women move from East to West in proportionate numbers, but among individuals who lived in the East in 1989 women are more likely to migrate. The migrant body in the second wave of migration, starting in the late 1990s, is increasingly composed of young, educated people. By focusing on differences between temporary and permanent migrants, we find that older and single individuals are more likely to return East than stay permanently in the West, compared with younger and married individuals. Finally, the life satisfaction of permanent migrants increases significantly after a move, while that of temporary migrants remains essentially flat. 相似文献
656.
We discuss a principal–agent model in which the principal has the opportunity to include a noncompete agreement in the employment contract. We show that not imposing such an agreement can be beneficial for the principal, as the possibility to leave the firm generates implicit incentives for the agent. The principal prefers to impose such a clause if and only if the value created is sufficiently small relative to the agent's outside option. If the principal can use an option contract for retaining the agent, she will never prefer a strict noncompete agreement. 相似文献
657.
658.
In recent years, a number of governments and consumer groups in rich countries have tried to discourage the use of child-labor in poor countries through measures such as product boycotts and the imposition of international labor standards. The purported objective of such measures is to reduce the incidence of child-labor in developing countries and thereby improve children’s welfare. In this paper, we examine the effects of such policies from a political-economy perspective. We show that these types of international action on child-labor tend to lower domestic political support within developing countries for banning child-labor. Hence, international labor standards and product boycotts may delay the ultimate eradication of child-labor. 相似文献
659.
This paper introduces a new argument into the theoretical literature on labor market effects of changes in working hours and labor force participation. We advance a general equilibrium model in which increased labor supply reduces unskilled unemployment via consumer demand: longer work hours and higher labor force participation imply higher incomes and less (leisure) time. In consequence, home production is reduced in favor of outsourcing domestic tasks to the market, shifting consumer demand toward unskill-intensive goods. Relative demand for unskilled labor rises and unemployment falls. 相似文献
660.