Value investing in credit markets

We outline a parsimonious empirical model to assess the relative usefulness of accounting- and equity market-based information to explain corporate credit spreads. The primary determinant of corporate credit spreads is the physical default probability. We compare existing accounting-based and market-based models to forecast default. We then assess whether the credit market completely incorporates this default information into credit spreads. We find that credit spreads reflect information about forecasted default rates with a significant lag. This unique evidence suggests a role for value investing in credit markets.     

Changes in Inequalities of Access to Dental Care in Australia 1977–2005

Information on dental visits, income and demographic variables were drawn from the Australian National Health Survey between 1977 and 2005. Income‐related inequality in access to dental care was calculated using the generalised concentration index (G) and decomposition methods were employed to examine associations with socio‐demographic and policy‐amenable factors. Statistically significant increases in inequality in dental care use were found after 1995. From 0.026 in 1995, G increased to 0.045 in 2005. The associations between increases in inequality and changes in the uptake of private health insurance suggest a contributory role of the introduction of the Commonwealth government's 30 per cent rebate for private health insurance.     

Communication channels in markets: a definition and conceptualization

The marketing mix taxonomy by classifying marketing communications according to how they are controlled by the marketer. The proposed definition of 'marketing communications' and 'communication channels' is customer-focused in contrast to the prevailing marketer-focused interpretations in the literature. This definition calls attention to the sources of information received by customers, some of which are only weakly controlled by the marketer. The control of communication channels is conceived in terms of five types-supervisory, contractual, agency, relational and informal.     

Trade and market selection: Evidence from manufacturing plants in Colombia

We examine the link between trade liberalization and aggregate productivity, with a focus on improved market selection resulting from a reduction in trade barriers and in the dispersion of these barriers across producers. Our analysis exploits tariff changes across sectors after the Colombian trade reform. An additional advantage of our analysis is that our TFP measure does not include demand and price effects. We find that reduced trade protection makes plant survival depend more closely on productivity. Using a dynamic simulation, we find that enhanced selection increases aggregate productivity substantially. Trade liberalization also increases productivity of incumbent plants and improves the allocation of activity. We find larger effects on allocative efficiency with our TFP measure than with a traditional measure including price effects.     

Middlemen and Oligopolistic Market Makers

This paper studies the endogenous structure of intermediation when heterogeneous intermediaries choose between becoming a middleman or a market maker, and the relation between the equilibrium market structure and price dispersion. We obtain three main results: First, middlemen and oligopolistic market makers can coexist in the market equilibrium. All market makers publicly post unique ask and bid prices. These prices serve as the high and low bounds, respectively, for the ask and bid prices of middlemen, when capacity cost is sufficiently large. Second, more efficient intermediaries choose to become market makers, whereas less efficient intermediaries choose to become middlemen. Third, if the fixed cost of capacity installation for market makers increases, the number of market makers declines, whereas the number of middlemen increases. As a result, both ask prices and bid prices become more dispersed.     

A reality check on technical trading rule profits in the U.S. futures markets

This article investigates the profitability of technical trading rules in U.S. futures markets during the years 1985–2004. Statistical significance of performance across the trading rules is evaluated using White's Bootstrap Reality Check and Hansen's Superior Predictive Ability tests, which can directly measure the effect of data snooping by testing the performance of the best rule in the context of the full universe of technical trading rules. Results show that the best rules generate statistically significant economic profits for only two of 17 futures markets after correcting for data snooping biases. This evidence suggests that technical trading rules generally have not been profitable in the U.S. futures markets. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:633–659, 2010     

Missing the marks? Dispersion in corporate bond valuations across mutual funds

We study the dispersion of month-end valuations placed on identical corporate bonds by different mutual funds. Such dispersion is related to bond-specific characteristics associated with liquidity and market volatility. The Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) could have contributed to the general decline in dispersion over our sample period, though other factors most likely played roles. Further tests reveal marking patterns to be consistent with returns smoothing behavior by managers. Funds with ambiguous marking policies and those holding “hard-to-mark” bonds appear more prone to smooth reported returns. From a regulatory perspective, we see little downside to requiring funds to explicitly state their marking standards.