Testing poolability in a system of dynamic regressions with nonspherical disturbances

This study analyzes the testing of cross-equation restrictions within a set of regression equations. Through Monte Carlo experiments we examine the actual size of various asymptotic procedures for testing the poolability hypothesis, i.e., equal slope vectors across individual equations. Regression models with both lagged dependent variable regressors and nonspherical disturbances are considered. In these models we find that the performance in finite samples of classical asymptotic test procedures using critical values from either or ² approximations is often rather poor. However, employing the original test statistics with bootstrapped critical values leads to much more accurate inference in finite samples. In an empirical analysis of panel data on GDP growth and unemployment rates in OECD countries it is shown that classical asymptotic tests and bootstrap procedures may lead to conflicting test outcomes. I am indebted to Peter Boswijk, Jan Kiviet, Peter Vlaar, the associate editor and 2 anonymous referees for their constructive comments. I want to thank Geoffrey Garrett for kindly making available his data.     

Detecting and modelling nonlinearity in flexible exchange rate time series

The aim of this paper is to examine the appropriateness of nonlinear time series analysis as a framework in which to model the dynamics of exchange rates. This aim has been motivated by the questioning of the power of classical unit root tests, the accumulating amount of evidence which suggests that exchange rates follow some kind of nonlinear process, and the fact that standard asset pricing theories do not explain well the empirical observations of exchange rate movements. The paper has three major objectives. First, to test for the presence of unit roots in nominal exchange rate time series. Second, for those nominal exchange rate time series found to be stationary, to test for nonlinearity using both tests derived without a specific nonlinear alternative in mind and tests against a specific nonlinear model. Finally, we motivate the types of nonlinearity for which we test by examining a recently proposed nonlinear model of exchange rate dynamics.The authors are from the School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney, Australia. We are extremely grateful to Alex Beliak and Alexander Khomin for their research assistance and help in developing our computer programs.     

An option pricing approach to the valuation of real estate contaminated with hazardous materials

This paper uses option pricing to examine how the presence of hazardous materials affects real estate value. The property owner has two options. The first option is to remove the hazardous materials at the best time. The second option, embedded in the first one, is to redevelop the property at the best opportunity. The owner has three possible timing strategies with respect to the exercise of these two options: remove the hazardous materials first and retain the option to redevelop the property later, remove and redevelop at the same time, or do nothing. Conditions under which the presence of the hazardous materials may either expedite or postpone the decision to redevelop are also derived. If the regulatory environment does not allow the property owner to make optimal timing decisions with respect to the exercise of these options, then our results provide an indication of the cost of regulation as measured by the additional loss in property value.     

Concentration of Banking Relationships in Switzerland: The Result of Firm Structure or Banking Market Structure?

Switzerland is one of the countries with the highest concentration of bank–customer relationships. The present paper seeks to find out whether this can be explained by the structure of Swiss firms or by the organization of the Swiss banking market. Using survey data from small and medium-sized enterprises in 1996 and 2002, we examine the influence of firm-, loan-, and bank-specific variables on the number of banking relationships. We find that firm and industry structure have the largest explanatory power, while banking market structure and conduct play a minor role. Relationship lending by state-owned cantonal banks and small regional banks tends to enhance the concentration of banking relationships.

Does politics make a difference?

Abstract

The concern of this article is the nature of the politics of public expenditure and whether changes in government between the Conservative Governments of Mrs Thatcher and the Blair Governments did reflect differences in policy priorities? The Thatcher Government in 1979 had announced that public expenditure was at the heart of Britain's economic problems. The Blair Governments did not seek to change the expenditure plans outlined by the outgoing Chancellor Kenneth Clarke. This study seeks to show that the analysis of data using long term trends for the post war period that the during the years of the Thatcher Government they government did manage to hold expenditure below its long term grwoth trends which in turn meant reductions in health and education spending while there were additional spending in law and order and defence. By contrast the Blair Government has managed to reverse this trend so that during the years of the Balir Government expenditure on socal provision has been expanding above the trend.     

A New Paradigm in Guiding: The Madrich as a Role Model

The “role model” guides encountered in the counselors of Israel Experience youth study tours, contrast traditional concepts of pathfinder and mentor. This model type is proposed as more appropriate for tours providing informal education and quest for identity. Not drawing authority from official recognition but from a personal guide–tourist relationship, madrichs rated characteristics essential to guides leading these trips. A multi-dimensional analysis uncovered the structure of these characteristics to create a structure of an “excellent” Israel Experience madrich. This structural analysis confirms an earlier typology and helps to uncover another kind of approach towards youth guiding.     

Spillovers from foreign direct investment: Within or between industries?

This paper contributes an estimation framework to measure both technological and linkage externalities from foreign direct investment (FDI). Empirical research dealt mainly with intra-industry spillovers from FDI with restrictive treatment of inter-industry effects until recently. However, as optimal organization of the multinational corporation (MNC) involves minimization of profit losses due to leakage of technical information to competitors, host-country firms within the MNC's sector experience limited productivity gains ensuing FDI. Host-country producers in other sectors may benefit. For example, MNCs transfer knowledge to local downstream clients, or outsource to local upstream suppliers. Hence, FDI substitutes within-sector domestic investment but complements it across sectors. The net impact on aggregate capital formation by host-country producers hinges on the interaction between linkages and spillovers. Estimations based on the Colombian Manufacturing Census yield the sectoral pattern of FDI spillovers displaying knowledge propagation between but not within industries. The findings reveal outsourcing relationships of MNCs with local upstream suppliers as the channel of diffusion.     

Equalization and the Decentralization of Revenue–Raising in a Federation

We study federal economies in which regional governments have responsibility for delivering public services and redistributive objectives apply. The implications of these for the assignment of revenue–raising instruments and fiscal transfers, both vertical and horizontal, are considered. Models of heterogeneous regions of varying degrees of complexity and generality are constructed. For each case, we determine what fiscal instruments must be given to the regions and what intergovernmental transfers must be made in order that the social optimum is achieved. With heterogenous households and regions, the social optimum can be decentralized by making regions responsible for redistribution and implementing equalization transfers that depend on the number of households of each type.