Business fluctuations and bankruptcy avalanches in an evolving network economy

We analyze the properties of a three-sector network economy characterized by credit relationships connecting downstream and upstream firms (inside credit) and credit relationships connecting firms and banks (outside credit). The network topology changes over time due to an endogenous process of partner selection (the preferred-partner choice rule). The output of simulations shows that a business cycle at the macroeconomic level can develop as a consequence of the complex interaction of the heterogeneous financial conditions of the agents involved. In this paper we focus on the emergence of bankruptcy crises: the bankruptcy of one agent can bring about the bankruptcy of one or more other agents in a snowball effect of more or less large size, depending on the network structure and the incidence of non-performing loans on balance sheets of agents involved.     

Multi‐product exporters,variable markups and exchange rate fluctuations

In this paper we investigate how firms adjust markups across products in response to fluctuations in the real exchange rate. We estimate markups at the market–product–plant level using detailed panel production and cost data from Mexican manufacturing between 1994 and 2007. Exploiting variation in the real exchange rate in the aftermath of the peso crisis in December 1994, we provide robust empirical evidence that plants increase their markups and producer prices in response to a real depreciation and that this increase is greater for products with higher productivity. Thus, we provide direct evidence for the theoretical mechanism of variable markup response behind incomplete and heterogeneous exchange rate pass‐through on producer prices. Our empirical methodology allows us to decompose the producer price response to exchange rate shocks into a markup and a marginal cost component using our markup estimates. Using these estimates, we establish that marginal cost at the product–plant level increases more in response to real exchange rate depreciation if the plant has higher share of imported inputs.     

When transparency pays off: Enticing sceptical consumers with two-sided advertising

It has been generally assumed that higher levels of scepticism towards advertising invariably lead to higher resistance to advertising appeals. The main purpose of the present research was to examine whether highly sceptical consumers' resistance can be overcome by appeals associated with higher credibility. We tested our hypotheses using message sidedness as an advertising variable that has been associated with higher (two-sided) versus lower (one-sided) credibility. In three experimental studies, we examined more versus less sceptical consumers' responses to two- versus one-sided appeals. We found that two-sided messages are more effective in increasing purchase intentions, through enhanced credibility, but only for consumers who are more sceptical of advertising. Less sceptical consumers trust both messages equally and their purchase intentions are not affected by the type of message. Importantly, we also showed that highly sceptical consumers trust two-sided appeals as much as their less sceptical counterparts. The study contributes to the literature on advertising and persuasion knowledge by showing that advertising scepticism does not elicit a single response tendency, as originally conceptualized. Rather, advertising scepticism is more consistent with the underpinnings of the Persuasion Knowledge Model, in that higher knowledge about persuasion tactics aids consumers to better cope with, and not invariably resist persuasion attempts. We conclude that transparency pays off because it may entice a more sceptical audience and, at the same time, it does not harm less sceptical consumers' trust and purchase intentions.     

Capital Flight from Russia

This paper documents the scale of capital flight from Russia, compares it with that observed in other countries, and reviews policy options. The evidence from other countries suggests that capital flight can be reversed once reforms take hold. The paper argues that capital flight from Russia can only be curbed through a medium‐term reform strategy aimed at improving governance and macroeconomic performance, and strengthening the banking system. Capital controls result in costly distortions and should gradually be phased out as part of that medium‐term strategy.     

The Suitability of ASEAN for a Regional Currency Arrangement

This paper examines the costs, benefits, preconditions, and implications of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional currency arrangement that is assumed to culminate in a regional currency. On economic criteria, ASEAN appears less suited for a regional currency arrangement than Europe before the Maastricht Treaty, although the difference is not large. The transition to European Monetary Union (EMU) indicates that the path toward a common currency is fraught with difficulty. A firm political commitment would seem to be vital to ensuring that an attempt to form a regional currency arrangement is not viewed as simply another fixed exchange rate regime, open to speculative crises.     

Relational consumption and nonlinear dynamics in an overlapping generations model

In this paper, we show that incorporating the relational dimension into an otherwise standard OLG model and focusing on dynamic leisure externalities leads to dramatically different predictions. Here, we show that when the old perceive private and relational consumption as substitutable goods, a series of interesting dynamic outcomes—such as local indeterminacy, nonlinear phenomena (including chaotic dynamics) and even multiple equilibria with global indeterminacy—may arise. We also draw some welfare implications and relate them to the well-known “happiness paradox” arising within contemporary affluent societies.     

Overseas business costs and firm export performance

Abstract.  The recent microeconomic literature on international trade has highlighted the importance of firm characteristics and trade costs for exports. This study provides evidence on one type of those costs, the costs of doing business overseas, from a theoretical and empirical perspective. Controlling for firm- and industry-level covariates, we find that improvements in the business environment of foreign countries lead to an increase in the export intensity of exporters in the UK manufacturing sector and additional export market entry. Further investigation suggests that important determinants of foreign business costs include factors relating to legal structure, property rights, and business regulation.     

A note on symmetry breaking in a non linear marketing model

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In this paper, we consider the nonlinear discrete-time dynamic model proposed by Bischi and Baiardi (Chaos Solitons Fractals 79:145-156, 2015a). The model...     

An evaluation of financial institutions: Impact on consumption and investment using panel data and the theory of risk-bearing

The theory of the optimal allocation of risk and the Townsend Thai panel data on financial transactions are used to assess the impact of the major formal and informal financial institutions of an emerging market economy. We link financial institution assessment to the actual impact on clients, rather than ratios and non-performing loans. We derive both consumption and investment equations from a common core theory with both risk and productive activities. The empirical specification follows closely from this theory and allows both OLS and IV estimation. We thus quantify the consumption and investment smoothing impact of financial institutions on households including those running farms and small businesses. A government development bank (BAAC) is shown to be particularly helpful in smoothing consumption and investment, in no small part through credit, consistent with its own operating system, which embeds an implicit insurance operation. Commercial banks are smoothing investment, largely through formal savings accounts. Other institutions seem ineffective by these metrics.     

Risk and the strategy of foreign location choice in regulated industries

We argue that firms in regulated industries react to macroeconomic and policy risks in sharply different ways. While they seek to avoid countries with high levels of macroeconomic uncertainty, we predict that they find it more attractive to expand into countries characterized by governments with discretionary policymaking capacities so as to be able to negotiate favorable conditions of entry. We also argue that firms are heterogeneous in their attitudes toward risk. We predict that firms in which the state holds a partial equity stake exhibit a more tolerant attitude. We also expect that as firms accumulate foreign experience, they develop an aversion toward further foreign entries into politically unstable markets. Support for these predictions is provided by an analysis of the Latin American market entries of all listed Spanish firms in regulated industries between 1987 and 2000. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.