Some Cambridge reactions to The General Theory: David Champernowne and Joan Robinson on full employment

This essay analyses early reactions put forward by Cambridgeeconomists David Champernowne and Joan Robinson to J. M. Keynes'streatment of the labour market in The General Theory. Champernowne'sand Robinson's critical reactions represented attempts to fillthe gap of the determinants of changes in money-wages, whichthey both identified as a weak spot in the argument of the book.They rejected, albeit for different reasons, Keynes's notionof the point of full employment as an upper limit defined bythe equality between the real wage rate and the marginal disutilityof employment. Instead of Keynes's taxonomy of types of unemployment,Champernowne and Robinson introduced, respectively, the conceptsof ‘monetary employment’ and ‘monetary unemployment’,and of ‘critical levels’ of employment.     

Book Notes COPO No. 3 2009 by Lucia A. Reisch

Book Note

Book Notes COPO No. 3 2009 by Lucia A. Reisch     

Panel cointegration and the neutrality of money

Most econometric methods for testing the proposition of long-run monetary neutrality rely on the assumption that money and real output do not cointegrate, a result that is usually supported by the data. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that a violation of the noncointegration assumption is likely to result in a nonrejection of the neutrality proposition. To alleviate this problem, two new and more powerful panel cointegration tests are proposed that can be used under quite general conditions. The empirical results obtained from applying these tests to a panel covering ten countries between 1870 and 1986 suggest money and real output are cointegrated, and hence that the neutrality proposition must be rejected.      

TESTING CONSUMERS' ASYMMETRIC PERCEPTION OF CHANGES IN HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL SITUATION

Using empirical analysis, this study shows that individuals perceive negative changes in their financial situation as larger relative to positive changes. Evidence of this asymmetry is provided using survey data on individual expectations, perceptions, income, and wealth. The study's results are in line with results in the psychological‐economic literature but, contrary to that literature, are obtained by analyzing panel survey data, rather than experimental evidence. These results cast some doubts on the tendency of economists to treat symmetrically the relation between economic variables and income or wealth in their models.     

Triangular Relations in Public Service Economics

This paper critically re-examines the restructuring of public services. Four main decision-making phases are identified: the public oversight to be guaranteed to socially sensitive economic activities; the ways of financing them; the economic organisation of the industry; and the production decisions. By focusing on organisation, the paper reinterprets the market structure in public service industries on the basis of the interactions among three main players: users/citizens, the government and the service supplier. It argues that the issue of public versus private ownership has been overemphasised, and that an effective increase in efficiency can be obtained by introducing appropriate incentives for both public and business players. Instead of using a single policy instrument, namely privatisation, public action ought to be informed by an array of organisational solutions.     

Credit constraints,inequality and the growth gains from trade

This paper tests the hypothesis that, in the presence of credit constraints, higher wealth inequality affects negatively the growth gains from trade liberalisation. Variations in the growth rate of value added–decomposed in the growth rate of the number of establishments and the growth rate in average size–of manufacturing industries in 34 developing countries before and after trade liberalisation are used to study the effects of inequality on the difference in growth under liberalised and nonliberalised regimes. The results show that the number of firms in industries with high dependence on external finance in countries with higher inequality grow significantly slower, in both statistical and economic terms, than in industries with low dependence on external finance in countries with lower inequality following a trade liberalisation relative to the closed-economy period.     

Wicksell,Ramsey and the theory of interest *

The article discusses Wicksell's assessment of the controversy between Böhm-Bawerk on one side, and Fisher and Bortkiewicz on the other, on the role of productivity (the ‘third reason’) in the determination of the rate of interest. It is shown that in the process of arguing out the third reason Wicksell came remarkably close to Frank Ramsey's view of the determinants of saving in economies with a positive subjective rate of discount. The similarities between Wicksell and Ramsey result from the fact that – in contrast with Fisher and Böhm-Bewerk – they assumed reinvestment, with the corollary that maximum permanent consumption will be reached at zero interest if the subjective rate discount of future utility is zero. Wicksell used his Ramsey–like saving rule to explain the interaction betwen Böhm–Bawerk's three reasons in either dynamic or stationary conditions, which enabled him to reformulate the third reason as the ‘marginal productivity of waiting’. Finally, the relevance of Wicksell's savings rule for the perennial debate on ‘Wicksell's missing equation' is considered in the last section of the article.     

Effects of the perceived diagnosticity of presented attribute and brand name information on sensitivity to missing information

Four experiments demonstrated that as the perceived diagnosticity of the presented information increases, sensitivity to missing diagnostic information decreases. However, experts were sensitive to missing information regardless of the diagnosticity of the presented attribute information. When a well-known brand name was paired with the attribute information, novices were insensitive to missing information regardless of the diagnosticity of the presented attribute information. Implications of the results for understanding information utilization and omission neglect are discussed.     

Firm–bank credit network,business cycle and macroprudential policy

We present an agent-based model to study firm–bank credit market interactions in different phases of the business cycle. The business cycle is exogenously set, and it can give rise to various scenarios. Compared to other models in this literature strand, we improve the mechanism according to which the dividends are distributed, including the possibility of stock repurchase by firms. In addition, we locate firms and banks over a space and firms may ask credit to many banks, resulting in a complex spatial network. The model reproduces a long list of stylized facts and their dynamic evolution as described by the cross-correlations among model variables. The model allows us to test the effectiveness of rules designed by the current financial regulation, such as the Basel III countercyclical capital buffer. We find that the effectiveness of this rule changes in different business cycle environments and this should be considered by policy makers.

     

Distant but Close in Sight: Firm-level Evidence on French–German Productivity Gaps in Manufacturing

We study productivity-level distributions of manufacturing firms in France and Germany, and how these distributions evolved across the Great Recession. We show the presence of a systematic productivity advantage of German firms over French ones in the decade 2003–2013, but the gap has narrowed down after the Great Recession. Convergence is explained by the better growth performance of French firms in the post-recession period, especially of those located in the top percentiles of the productivity distribution. We also highlight the role of sectoral growth, firm size, and export intensity in explaining the above convergence. In contrast, the contribution of allocative efficiency was small.