The discrepancy distribution of stationary multiplier rules for rounding probabilities

The problem of rounding finitely many (continuous) probabilities to (discrete) proportions N _i/n is considered, for some fixed rounding accuracy n. It is well known that the rounded proportions need not sum to unity, and instead may leave a nonzero discrepancy D=(∑N _i) −n. We determine the distribution of D, assuming that the rounding function used is stationary and that the original probabilities follow a uniform distribution. Received: April 1999     

Why Finance Ministers Favor Carbon Taxes,Even If They Do Not Take Climate Change into Account

Fiscal considerations may shift governmental priorities away from environmental concerns: finance ministers face strong demand for public expenditures such as infrastructure investments but they are constrained by international tax competition. We develop a multi-region model of tax competition and resource extraction to assess the fiscal incentive of imposing a tax on carbon rather than on capital. We explicitly model international capital and resource markets, as well as intertemporal capital accumulation and resource extraction. While fossil resources give rise to scarcity rents, capital does not. With carbon taxes, the rents can be captured and invested in infrastructure, which leads to higher welfare than under capital taxation. This result holds even without modeling environmental damages. It is robust under a variation of the behavioral assumptions of resource importers to coordinate their actions, and a resource exporter’s ability to counteract carbon policies. Further, no green paradox occurs—instead, the carbon tax constitutes a viable green policy, since it postpones extraction and reduces cumulative emissions.     

The impact of bargaining on markets with price takers: Too many bargainers spoil the broth

In this paper we study how bargainers impact on markets in which firms set a list price to sell to those consumers who take prices as given. The list price acts as an outside option for the bargainers, so the higher the list price, the more the firms can extract from bargainers. We find that an increase in the proportion of consumers seeking to bargain can lower consumer surplus overall, even though new bargainers receive a lower price. The reason is that the list price for those who do not bargain and the bargained prices for those who were already bargaining rise: sellers have a greater incentive to make the bargainers’ outside option less attractive, reducing the incentive to compete for price takers. Competition Authority exhortations to bargain can therefore be misplaced. We also consider the implications for optimal seller bargaining.     

The role of the exchange rate in Canadian monetary policy: evidence from a TVP-BVAR model

A time-varying parameters Bayesian structural vector autoregression (TVP-BVAR) model with stochastic volatility is employed to characterize the monetary policy stance of the Bank of Canada (BoC) in terms of an interest rate rule linking the policy rate to the output gap, inflation and the exchange rate. Using quarterly bilateral Canadian–US data, we find such an interest rate rule to have little explanatory power for the early part of our sample starting in the mid-1980s, but to become more suitable to explain interest rate dynamics from the mid-1990s onwards. Whereas the exchange rate turns out to be the major determinant of the policy rate in the 1980s, its importance declines throughout the 1990s and 2000s, although it continues to be influential even towards the end of the sample period ending in 2015Q2. We also find interest rate shocks to have become more effective in influencing the macroeconomy over time, indicating that the BoC has continually gained monetary policy credibility. We associate this development with the BoC successively de-emphasizing the role of the exchange rate in informing interest rate decisions, thereby alleviating the potential monetary policy conflict between targeting the exchange rate and maintaining the price stability goal.     

Institutions,parental selection,and locus of control

Locus of control, that is, people’s perception of how much influence they have over their lives, is an important predictor for economic outcomes – earnings, health and education, to name a few. This article uses difference-in-differences analysis to investigate the importance of the institutional environment for the development of locus of control, using the fall of the Berlin Wall as exogenous shock to the educational system in East Germany. Using data from the German Socioeconomic Panel (SOEP), we find that women showed less external locus of control following the fall of the Berlin Wall but less clear results for men.     

Cost-utility analysis of life-long prophylaxis with recombinant factor VIIIFc vs recombinant factor VIII for the management of severe hemophilia A in Sweden

Aims: Prophylaxis with recombinant factor VIII (rFVIII) is the standard of care for severe hemophilia A in Sweden. The need for frequent injections with existing rFVIII products may, however, result in poor adherence to prophylaxis, leading to increased bleeding and long-term joint damage. Recombinant FVIIIFc (rFVIIIFc) is an extended half-life fusion protein which can offer prolonged protection and reduced dosing frequency. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-utility of prophylaxis with rFVIIIFc in severe hemophilia A from the perspective of the Swedish health system.

Methods: A Markov model was built to estimate lifetime costs and benefits of prophylaxis with rFVIIIFc vs rFVIII products. Clinical outcomes were represented by annualized bleeding rate (ABR) and quality of life via disutility applied to bleeding events and injection frequency. Costs included the cost of FVIII for routine prophylaxis and bleed resolution. The pooled comparator was costed by weighting the cost of individual products by their market share.

Results: In the base case, rFVIIIFc was dominant vs the pooled comparator. Savings of SEK 9.0 million per patient resulted from lower factor consumption for prophylaxis and bleed resolution. Fewer bleeds and reduced injection frequency yielded an estimated 0.59 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Results were sensitive to drug dosage and robust to variation in other parameters. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested a greater than 85% probability of rFVIIIFc being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 500,000 SEK/QALY.

Limitations: Due to unavailibilty of patient-level data, treatment benefit was based on a non-adjusted indirect comparison. Dosing and treatment outcomes were assumed to persist over the model duration in the absence of long-term outcome data.

Conclusion: The results suggest that rFVIIIFc may be a cost-effective option for hemophilia A prophylaxis, generating greater quality of life and reduced costs for the Swedish payer compared to more frequently administered rFVIII alternatives.     

Why good accountants do bad audits

On July 30, President Bush signed into law the Sarbanes-Oxley Act addressing corporate accountability. A response to recent financial scandals, the law tightened federal controls over the accounting industry and imposed tough new criminal penalties for fraud. The president proclaimed, "The era of low standards and false profits is over." If only it were that easy. The authors don't think corruption is the main cause of bad audits. Rather, they claim, the problem is unconscious bias. Without knowing it, we all tend to discount facts that contradict the conclusions we want to reach, and we uncritically embrace evidence that supports our positions. Accountants might seem immune to such distortions because they work with seemingly hard numbers and clear-cut standards. But the corporate-auditing arena is particularly fertile ground for self-serving biases. Because of the often subjective nature of accounting and the close relationships between accounting firms and their corporate clients, even the most honest and meticulous of auditors can unintentionally massage the numbers in ways that mask a company's true financial status, thereby misleading investors, regulators, and even management. Solving this problem will require far more aggressive action than the U.S. government has taken thus far. What's needed are practices and regulations that recognize the existence of bias and moderate its effects. True auditor independence will entail fundamental changes to the way the accounting industry operates, including full divestiture of consulting and tax services, rotation of auditing firms, and fixed-term contracts that prohibit client companies from firing their auditors. Less tangibly, auditors must come to appreciate the profound impact of self-serving biases on their judgment.     

Examining Federal Impact Aid's Reimbursement for Local School Districts

In 1950, Congress created the Federal Impact Aid Program to compensate local school districts for lost tax revenue or increased burdens resulting from federal activities, including the placement of military bases within school districts. Currently, Impact Aid provides nearly $1 billion per year in subsidies to approximately 1400 local school districts that enroll over 1.2 million eligible children. This current study examines the adequacy of the funding in the Impact Aid program as an example of how the existing public finance literature provides the tools to help policy makers make informed decisions. (JEL H0 , H7 , 12 )     

Data,information and knowledge: have we got it right?

Economists make the unarticulated assumption that information is something that stands apart from and is independent of the processor of information and its internal characteristics. We argue that they need to revisit the distinctions they have drawn between data, information, and knowledge. Some associate information with data, and others associate information with knowledge. But since none of them readily conflates data with knowledge, this suggests too loose a conceptualisation of the term information. We argue that the difference between data, information, and knowledge is in fact crucial. Information theory and the physics of information provide us with useful insights with which to build an economics of information appropriate to the needs of the emerging information economy.JEL Classification: A12, D20, D80, M21Correspondence to: Agustí CanalsA. Canals, Av. Tibidabo, 39-43. 08035 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain