Do large recessions reduce output permanently?

We apply a recent quantile autoregression unit root test to US GDP. The test takes into account that the transmission of a shock might depend on the sign and the size of the shock. We find that positive and negative shocks including large recessionary shocks like the 2008/2009 crisis have permanent effects on output.     

Mobility and the dynamics of poverty in Iran: Evidence from the 1992–1995 panel survey

In the last three decades, revolutionary Iran has experienced large shocks to its political and economic system with likely effects on poverty, inequality, and economic mobility. While poverty has declined, inequality has remained relatively high and stable over nearly four decades. In this paper, for the first time, we examine poverty and inequality in a dynamic context using a 4-year panel data, collected during 1992–1995. We show that short-term income mobility is relatively high, which helps mitigate persistent high inequality. We offer a range of estimates of transition probabilities, indicating that, for example, someone in the lowest (highest) quintile has between 25% and 50% chance of moving up (down) the income ladder. Focusing on the dynamics of poverty, we distinguish between short- and long-term poor and between chronic and transient poverty. Surprisingly, we find that chronic poverty is a more serious problem in urban than rural areas, while transient poverty is geographically more uniformly distributed. Finally, using Tobit and quantile regression, we examine the correlates of these two types of poverty. Both chronic and transient poverty are higher for households headed by women and by younger and less educated men. While minorities suffer more from transient poverty, they are less likely to be chronically poor. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy to alleviate chronic and transient poverty.     

Oil income shocks and economic growth in Iran

The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between oil revenue shocks and output growth in Iran by Adopting an SVAR model over the period 1959–2008. The results indicate that positive and negative oil revenue shocks significantly affect output growth positively and negatively respectively and these effects are asymmetric. While negative oil revenue shocks adversely affect the economic growth, the resource curse impedes the expected positive effects of positive oil shocks. In order to overcome the harmful effects of oil booms and busts, the establishment of oil stabilization and saving funds, diversifying economy, delinking government expenditure from oil revenues and introducing fiscal rules into the budget seems crucial for Iran economy.     

The Effect of Service Climate on Perceived Service Value and Behavioral Intentions: The Mediating Role of Service Quality

The purpose of the current study is to assess the influence of employees’ perceived service climate on customers’ perceived service value and behavioral intention. Furthermore, the paper investigates the extent to which service quality mediates the relationship among employees’ perceived service climate, customers’ perceived service value, and behavioral intention. Data were collected from convenience samples of 400 customers and 375 hotel employees. The results of structural equation modeling indicated that: (1) employees’ perceived service climate has a positive and significant influence on service quality, customers’ perceived service value, and behavioral intention and (2) service quality has a positive and significant influence on customers’ perceived service value and behavioral intention. Additionally, this study revealed that the indirect effect of employees’ perceived service climate on customers’ perceived service value and behavioral intention through service quality is more than the direct effect of employees’ perceived service climate, customers’ perceived service value, and behavioral intention.     

The temporal variation of cost-efficiency in Switzerland’s hospitals: an application of mixed models

This paper uses a mixed effects model to examine the temporal variation of cost efficiency in Switzerland’s general hospitals. The variations in total costs, the number of empty beds and the length of hospital stays are analyzed using financial data from a sample of 168 hospitals operating from 1998 to 2003, as well as hospitalization records disaggregated to Diagnosis Related Groups. Individual intercepts and random coefficients are used to account for the unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity and the differences in temporal patterns across hospitals and DRG categories. The analysis illustrates the usefulness of mixed models to account for unobserved factors such as quality, with a relatively weak assumption that their temporal variations, rather than their initial levels, be uncorrelated with efficiency changes. The results indicate that hospitals have adopted measures to curtail hospitalizations and reduce empty beds. The extent and effectiveness of these measures vary significantly across individual hospitals. However, there is no evidence in favor of a particular ownership type or subsidization regime. While the link between reduction rates of empty beds and gains in cost-efficiency is statistically significant, the expected association between shortening hospital stays and cost-efficiency cannot be clearly established in the data.

Airport privatization: A simple welfare analysis

The interest in privatization is not new to the world nor the study of economies, for that matter. The paper contains a critique of both proponent and opponent groups of economists and policy makers who deal with the issue of airport privatization. These groups primarily rely on anecdotal evidence to support their positions. At present, privatization can only be accepted or rejected on the basis of theory, politics, or ideology. In this paper a mathematical model and decision rule based on welfare analysis are developed that facilitate the process for transition of airports from a public enterprise to a private one.     

Inflation and the Income Share of the Rich: Evidence for 14 OECD Countries

This paper examines the distributional implications of inflation on top income shares in 14 advanced economies using data over the period 1920–2016. We use local projections to analyze how top income shares respond to an inflation shock, and panel regressions in which all variables are defined as 5-year averages to examine the impact of inflation on the position of the top-one-percent in the long run. Our findings suggest that inflation reduces the share of national income held by the top 1 percent. Furthermore, we find that inflation shocks and long-run inflation have similar effects on top income shares.     

The impact of terrorism on public debt in African countries

Given the increase in the number of terrorist attacks in African countries, a better understanding of the relationship between terrorism, the informal economy and public debt is essential for policymakers. The model is empirically tested for 47 countries during the period 1996–2015. We use ordinary least squares (OLS), random effects (ER) and system generalized method of moments (GMM). Three terrorism indicators are used: the uncertain, the domestic, and the transnational. The results confirm that the rise in terrorism and the informal economy lead to an increase in public debt. The results also show that the informal economy magnifies the effect of terrorism on public debt. In addition, the results suggest that a larger informal economy reduces income taxes and therefore increases public debt and the increase in public spending reinforces the effects of terrorism on public debt. The reduction of terrorism should therefore be governments’ primary political objective. Given the detected complementarity between terrorism and the informal economy, the reduction of terrorism would also reduce the size of the informal economy and the public debt. The reduction of terrorism will also minimize the harmful effects of terrorism on public debt through public spending.