改革开放以来中国科技政策发展回顾

改革开放以来,中国的科学技术取得了突飞猛进的发展,科学技术政策也走过了不平凡的道路。在30年的发展中,大体可以从三个阶段来考察我国的科技政策。文章主要回顾了改革开放以来中国科技政策的发展脉络,指出这一过程中阻碍政策正确发挥作用的不足之处,并初步给出了今后科技政策制定的几点建议。     

中国改革时期省际生产率增长变化的实证分析(1979-2001年)

中国经济的发展是否正在背离比较优势的原则?今后中国是否要加快经济增长模式的转变?该文试图通过对省际全要素生产率(TFP)及其组成部分的测算,从技术效率和技术进步这两个不同的方面来考察中国改革开放以来的TFP增长性质和近几年来的变化趋势,以便为相关政策讨论提供一些实证依据.我们的研究结果表明,中国经济增长在1978-1995年期间经历了一个TFP高增长期(为4.6%);而在1996-2001年期间出现低增长期(为0.6%),其变化的具体特征为:技术进步速度减慢、技术效率有所下降.     

International diffusion of embodied and disembodied technology: A network analysis approach

This study proposes a quantitative method for investigating the structure of international technology diffusion. By using network analysis, this study defines the structural configuration of each country within the international diffusion network by measuring its degree, closeness, and betweenness centralities. In addition, this study distinguishes between embodied technology diffusion, measured by multilateral trade, and disembodied technology diffusion, measured by patent citations, in individual countries. This study empirically tests a sample data set of international technology diffusion taken from 48 countries. The empirical results show that the structural configuration of countries exhibits similar patterns in both embodied and disembodied diffusion networks. Significant global stratification patterns exist in the capability of national international technology exportation and brokerage advantages. Moreover, this study distinguishes four blocks of countries that play different roles in international technology diffusion: the leading countries provide a source of technological knowledge; an intermediate group diffuses the knowledge acquired from the source; a third group is in the process of initiating the export of technological knowledge; and a final group of countries absorbs technological knowledge without reciprocal exportation. Finally, this study identifies two types of catch-up strategies that newly industrialized or developing countries can use to move up the international technology stratification.     

How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodological adaptations. We take the approach, which rests in the Shell tradition, as exemplary for our discussion on the mainstream scenario methodology. This approach has some limitations when it comes to dealing with simultaneous trends and countertrends, and trends or clusters of trends that are not thought of beforehand, especially the methodological requirements of causality and consistency, which might be limiting factors in this respect. This paper indicates alternative ways for scenario construction. It discusses the use of either recombinant scenarios, context scenarios, or inconsistent scenarios and/or combinations of these scenarios. These options explicitly incorporate the notion of ‘paradoxical trend’ as the codriver of future developments into the methodology.     

The application of Operation and Technology Roadmapping to aid Singaporean SMEs identify and select emerging technologies

In order to aid Singaporean SMEs identify and select emerging technologies for business benefit, a modified process of the Cambridge T-Plan methodology has been introduced and applied to a pilot sample of 30 companies in a variety of manufacturing sectors. This fast and simple process takes the company through five key steps to enable them to create their first Operation and Technology Roadmap (OTR). The paper explains the background to the approach and focuses on the initial benefits identified by a survey of the pilot companies.     

商业银行跨国经营动机:理论研究与实践回顾

随着金融开放及国际化进程的不断深入,在更大的市场中寻找机会成为我国商业银行的必然选择.在商业银行选择跨出国门的行为背后,究竟那些因素驱使其作出这一选择,仿佛并不十分清晰.文章通过分析商业银行跨国经营的回顾及经验,归纳总结了国内外学者对商业银行跨国经营动机的研究,分析了8类因素对商业银行实施跨国经营战略的作用,提出了我国商业银行在走出去的过程中,应针对我国商业银行自身的特点,追随优质客户,跟随贸易和海外投资发展跨国业务.     

基于JSP技术的在线考试系统的设计与实现

在线考试系统用目前最流行的动态网页编程技术JSP来完成,该系统功能强大,能实现远程的动态在线考试、在线改卷,能够远程的实现对后台试卷的管理,随时都可以对后台数据库中的各种题型进行修改、添加,对学生的成绩进行跟踪。该系统中采取了一系列措施保证了试卷的随机生成、数据库的有效部署,从而保证整个系统能够稳定的运行。     

京津冀R&D资源与创新活动关系比较分析

通过构建京津冀R&D资源—创新活动—创新绩效的概念模型,采用协整检验和格兰杰因果关系分析等经济计量方法,对京津冀R&D资源与创新活动的关系、创新与经济绩效的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:河北省政府资金和企业资金分别与专利和新产品销售收入存在长期稳定关系;天津市政府资金和企业资金对新产品销售收入存在长期稳定关系;北京市各变量之间关系不明显。     

基于波特钻石模型的中国汽车金融产业竞争力分析

本文以汽车金融为独立金融产业,在波特钻石模型基础上引入金融竞争力若干指标,对我国汽车金融产业的生产要素、国内需求、支持性产业和相关产业、公司结构、战略和竞争分析进行分析。研究发现我国汽车金融产业竞争力存在复合型汽车金融人才匮乏、资金来源限制多、消费征信制度缺失、汽车信贷产品单一、市场开发不够,产业集中度低等问题。最后从产业政策、法律制度与监督管理三方面提出了汽车金融产业竞争力的提升对策。     

农民收入现状及增收对策分析——以河南省为例

农民收入问题是三农问题的核心,农民增收是缩小城乡差距,推进新农村建设的必然要求.通过对河南省农民收入纵向和横向比较,分析影响农民收入的因素,并提出了农民增收的对策建议.