Seasonal decomposition and forecasting of telecommunication data: A comparative case study

In this paper, forecasting models for the monthly outgoing telephone calls in a University Campus are presented. The data have been separated in the categories of international and national calls as well as calls to mobile phones. The total number of calls has also been analyzed. Three different methods, namely the Seasonal Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing Method and SARIMA Method, have been used. Forecasts with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each method and compared with the actual data. The outcome of this work can be used to predict future demands for the telecommunications network of the University.     

The coevolution of firms and their knowledge environment: Insights from the pharmaceutical industry

What are the most effective learning strategies for firms given the characteristics of their knowledge environment? This paper addresses this question by documenting the major changes in the knowledge environment of the pharmaceutical industry, with a particular emphasis on the period since the emergence of biotechnology, and discussing the related changes in the learning strategies of established pharmaceutical firms. Both the historical analysis and a review of the empirical research on organizational learning and knowledge transfer reveal a strong emphasis of firms on external learning through interfirm collaborations and sourcing of external knowledge. This learning strategy seems to be driven by the speed, uncertainty, and dispersion of knowledge developments in the industry. Studying the connections between the knowledge environment and the effectiveness of organizational learning processes is important to understand organizational change and adaptation, and is an area of research that deserves further attention.     

虚拟团队构建过程中的人力资源问题探析

公司越来越意识到虚拟团队不仅可以提高公司的灵活性和对市场变化的响应速度,而且还能够降低成本。当组织计划建立虚拟团队时首先应当确定的团队任务及相关决策,其中的重点是使命描述、人员选拔以及任务设计。     

浅析公共工程项目可持续发展的实现模式

大型公共项目投资额巨大,专业性、综合性很强,大型公司项目能否顺利完成和发挥预期的投资效益,对所在区域的经济、社会和生态的发展具有重要影响 .在论述大型公共工程可持续发展的实现模式基础上,结合我国大型公共工程建设和管理的现状,探讨对大型公共工程项目的全生命周期管理.     

创新型城市的概念、构成要素及发展战略

本文界定了创新型城市的内涵,在充分借鉴世界先进创新型城市的发展经验基础上,分析城市创新体系的构成要素,提出区域一体化联动和差异化发展战略。     

农业土地制度和经济发展机制:对二十世纪中国经济史的一种理解

本文提出了农业土地制度决定经济发展机制的假说,并用二十世纪中国经济史对该假说作了初步论证。本文指出二十世纪上半叶中国经济发展机制是地主所有制下的古典二元经济机制,五十年代初中国实行了土地改革,但到七十年代末的计划经济发展机制依然类似于古典二元机制,而八十年代初的中国农业改革最终把中国经济建立在准自耕农制度上,中国经济发展从此表现出工资上升、工资和利润共同储蓄的新机制。     

The impact of credit constraints on the performance of Chinese agricultural wholesalers

This article evaluates the impact of credit constraints on the performance of Chinese agricultural wholesalers. We estimate a stochastic frontier function using transaction and credit data of agricultural wholesalers from across China to estimate the efficiency and productivity impacts of credit constraints on sales of affected agricultural wholesalers. Empirical results show that micro- and smaller wholesalers are disproportionally impacted by credit constraints and that eliminating these constraints would increase the sales of affected agricultural wholesalers by approximately 15%. Thus, policies aimed at providing credit access for these wholesalers would significantly boost the performance of smaller agricultural wholesalers while improving the overall performance of the Chinese food supply chain without requiring additional non-credit inputs.     

中国金融市场潜在风险分析及其防范对策研究

金融风险指金融市场主体从事货币、资金、信用交易过程中遭受损失的可能性。文章对我国金融市场面临的潜在风险进行了分析和研究,对如何化解和防范金融危机提出了相关对策。     

A Factor Endowment Theory of Endogenous Growth and International Trade

This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model of multi‐country, two‐good and two‐factor, in which both long‐run growth and international trade patterns are examined. In each country, government expenditure on a public intermediate good plays a crucial role in the realization of persistent growth. It is shown that the long‐run pattern of international trade is determined in a Heckscher‐Ohlin manner.     

Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.