Accounting for economic evolution: Fitness and the population method

The theme of this paper is the general population dynamics of evolutionary processes, and, in particular, a number of accounting concepts that are central to any understanding of evolutionary processes of the variation-cum-selection retention kind. A population perspective, for example, turns out to be crucial to the study of the competitive process in economic systems defined at the level of industries, sectors and markets. Business rivalry, underpinned by differential innovative activity, is the basis of the differential survival and growth of competing economic activities and the strategies deployed to create sustainable differences in competitive selection characteristics are at the core of the capitalist dynamic interpreted as an adaptive, evolutionary process. This kind of evolutionary argument is necessarily concerned with growth rate dynamics and the explanation of the diversity of growth rates across entities in a population. However, the following discussion does not provide any causal explanation of economic evolution in terms of the determinants of growth rate differences, rather it provides a bookkeeping scheme in which different causal theories may be set and compared. Growth dynamics and structural change are the two central features of variation/selection processes within populations and I explore them in terms of three themes: namely, Logistic Growth Accounting; Competition Accounting; and, the Price Theorem. The unifying theme that links all three is their relation to the population method in evolutionary theory.      

Knowledge of growth and the growth of knowledge

The central theme of this address is the complicated relationship between the growth of the economy and the growth of knowledge. This theme is explored with the help of a single concept “restless capitalism” which is used to capture the idea that capitalism in equilibrium is a contradiction in terms precisely because the growth of knowledge cannot be meaningfully formulated as the outcome of a constellation of equilibrating forces. This theme is explored through a discussion of growth accounting, the relationship between innovation, markets and institutions and, as an example, the development of innovation in the field of ophthalmology. We also discuss some pioneering contributions made by Simon Kuznets and Arthur Burns to the discussion of evolutionary growth. From this Schumpeterian perspective we see the economy as an ensemble not an aggregate entity and so see more clearly the importance of microdiversity in the relationship between growth of knowledge and growth of the economy.     

Management and the representative firm revisited: the modern significance of Marshall's evolutionary economics

In an essay written in honour of Peter Swann, it is second nature to discuss some aspects of the economics of innovation, as that is the very challenging area of economic life where he has added so much to our understanding. I will attempt to do this by posing the problem of how innovation fits into the theory of value. Innovation research continues apace, but its broader systemic implications for how we understand the dynamics of capitalism are in danger of being overlooked. But two important economists, Schumpeter and Marshall, have seen the problem differently and built innovation into their theoretical schemes from the start. Marshall's theory of evolutionary change provides a natural focus for our discussion, and this is reflected in his treatment of management, in his use of the representative firm and in the variation-cum-selection dynamics of his open competitive process. We treat each of these topics and show how his evolutionary dynamics can be expressed in the Fisher/Price dynamics of evolutionary change. More generally, the key to economic development is the uneven nature of innovation and it is the uneven nature that gives economic transformation its evolutionary character. This, I suggest, is the proper legacy of Marshalls economics.     

Reswitching,primary inputs and the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson theory of trade

The 2× 2 × 2 Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model of trade is examined under all the usual assumptions, except that a positive rate of interest is assumed. The factor-price-equalization and Stolper-Samuelson theorems are shown to be unaffected by the positive interest rate. The H-O-S theorem on the pattern of trade still holds in its ‘quantity’ form but is shown to be invalid in its ‘price’ form. Consequently trade need not ‘harm’ a country's scarce factor. It is to be expected that, in general, international equilibrium will not be unique.     

SELF REGULATION, CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND PREVENTIVE MEDICINE: THE EVOLUTION OF U.K. BANK SUPERVISION

This article examines the transition in bank supervision from an ideology of self-regulation to a more open-ended, preventive-medicine approach. It explores the processes by which the supervisors are developing a realistic and relevant appreciation of the banking system as a network of organizations [1].