A Bayesian method of combining judgmental and model-based density forecasts

This paper introduces a formal method of combining expert and model density forecasts when the sample of past forecasts is unavailable. It works directly with the expert forecast density and endogenously delivers weights for forecast combination, relying on probability rules only. The empirical part of the paper illustrates how the framework can be applied in forecasting US inflation by mixing density forecasts from an autoregressive model and the Survey of Professional Forecasters.     

The Impact of Administrative Reform on the Central Functions of Larger Polish Cities

The purpose of this research note is to identify the central functions of larger Polish cities, as well as analyze their transformations resulting from changes in the administrative division of Poland. We perform the study based on the central place theory by Walter Christaller using two measures: centrality index and centrality index adjusted to its demographic potential.     

Metrisable assessment of the course of stream-systemic processes in vector form in industry 4.0

Quality & Quantity - The goal of this paper is to present an innovative conception how to use metrisable vector structure of a manufacturing process, based on quantitative relations between the...     

Toward sustainable corporate behavior: The effect of the critical mass of female directors on environmental,social, and governance disclosure

Boards of directors have recently become more attentive to their stakeholders' concerns, providing more transparent information and adopting more sustainable business strategies. This study investigates the influence of a critical mass of women on boards on the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure score and its three components separately. Using a sample of the FTSE-MIB listed companies in the 2005–2017 period, we show that reaching a critical mass of female board members—going from one or two women to at least three—enhances the level of ESG disclosure. The results also show that the critical mass of female board members has a positive influence on every component of the ESG score, with the highest contribution of women reaching the governance score. These findings provide insights to shareholders and policymakers and suggest that a critical mass of female board members is particularly effective in improving transparency, and it can be seen as a mechanism to transit to stakeholder governance, fostering more sustainable behavior in firms.     

Credible enough? Forward guidance and perceived National Bank of Poland’s policy rule

Forward guidance effectiveness is conditional upon its credibility. This policy, when taken as credible, should reduce the perceived impact of macroeconomic variables on the interest rate. Using the Taylor rule framework and employing micro-level data set, we test the perception of monetary policy in Poland among professional forecasters. Our results show that the Taylor principle is violated in the forward guidance period, which provides evidence for forward guidance credibility.     

Model simplification and variable selection: A replication of the UK inflation model by Hendry (2001)

In this paper, we revisit the well-known UK inflation model by Hendry (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, 16, 255–275. We replicate the results in a narrow sense using the gretl and PcGive programs. In a wide sense, we extend the study of model uncertainty using the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach as an automatic model reduction strategy. We consider three different specifications to compare BACE variable selection with Hendry's reduction. We find that the BACE method can recover the path of nontrivial reduction strategy.     

Optimality and efficiency of incomplete split-block designs

In this paper, a balanced incomplete split-block design (BISBD) is shown to be universally optimum for the estimation of the interaction effects with respect to each of the intra-plot stratum estimation and the GLSE. Furthermore, the efficiency factor of an optimal design is investigated.     

No Vehicle Means No Aid—A Paradigm Change for the Humanitarian Logistics Business Model

The growing interest in humanitarian logistics is witnessed by an increasing focus of researchers and practitioners on that topic. Transportation in particular is emphasized as key to disaster relief. Despite its relevance, it suffers from a number of drawbacks, creating inefficiencies and limited effectiveness of aid. This article describes a paradigm change for fleet management in humanitarian organizations based on access‐based consumption. It further evaluates a case study among small‐scale producers in rural India, showing their acceptance for sharing vehicles. The newly created business opportunities will increase income and contribute to poverty alleviation. Taking part in the proposed vehicle‐sharing system can release them from ownership responsibilities and increase vehicle utilization, as well as improve vehicle availability, increasing the speed of aid from the perspective of humanitarian organizations. This article highlights the applicability of business models relying on the idea of access‐based consumption to not‐yet‐considered research fields, especially the transfer to rural areas of developing countries. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.