An analysis of the global position of U.S. manufacturing

This article provides an overview of the changing export and import flows of U.S. manufactured goods in the global economy, offers some thoughts on the repercussions of these changes, and outlines possible outcomes. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Industry Classifications: Aim, Scope and Techniques

Industry classifications select essential characteristics of technology and markets, condensating the vast heterogeneity of competitive environments into a smaller number of salient types. Although frequently applied in empirical studies on industrial economics, technological development, international trade, and competitiveness, we still find little or no methodological discussion and a striking lack of awareness for the different approaches pursued. This interpretative survey systematically collects information about the aim, scope and techniques relevant to the major classifications currently used in applied economic studies.     

A play-the-winner-type urn design with reduced variability

We propose a new adaptive allocation rule, the drop-the-loser, that randomizes subjects in the course of a trial comparing treatments with dichotomous outcomes. The rule tends to assign more patients to better treatments with the same limiting proportion as the randomized play-the-winner rule. The new design has significantly less variable allocation proportion than the randomized play-the-winner rule. Decrease in variability translates into a gain in statistical power. For some values of success probabilities the drop-the-loser rule has a double advantage over conventional equal allocation in that it has better power and assigns more subjects to the better treatment. Acknowledgments. I thank Stephen Durham, the associate editor, and the referees for their helpful suggestions.     

Intertemporal Substitution and Terms-of-Trade Shocks

The paper examines the relationship between transitory terms‐of‐trade shocks and private saving. Using a model allowing for nonseparability between the consumption of tradables and nontradables, the paper estimates the intertemporal elasticity of substitution while accounting for the intratemporal elasticity of substitution between the consumption of tradables and nontradables. Empirical analysis of data for five industrial countries indicates that in response to transitory terms‐of‐trade shocks, intertemporal substitution of consumption and intratemporal substitution of consumption between tradables and nontradables both have large effects on private saving.