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31.
Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances.
We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is
followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria.
The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact
on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes
of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables
and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models.
JEL no. F32, C23, C53 相似文献
32.
This paper develops and estimates models of family and sex-specific emigration, as well as the sex composition of this emigration, from 12 European source countries to the U.S. for the period 1870–1910. The models are based on the distinction between economic migrants (males, single females, and some married females) and tied or trailing migrants (females) and are estimated with panel data, including data that relate to the occupational/industrial structure of male and female economic activity in source countries. Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable estimates suggest that although both males and females responded to labor-market signals, males were more responsive than females to per capita GDP differences. Moreover, compared to the rest of Europe, Ireland, and Scandinavia were the sources of many young, single male, and female migrants, who responded strongly to gaps in economic opportunities. In fact, much of the European response to such gaps appears to be due to migrants from Ireland and Scandinavia. Females tended to originate in English-speaking countries and countries that were agriculturally oriented. Service and manufacturing jobs in source countries discouraged the migration of females relative to males. Males tended to follow recent migrants more than females, but females responded more to long-term influences as measured by stocks of migrants from their source countries who had previously settled in the U.S. Countries with high birth rates had relatively fewer female emigrants, whereas those with high rates of natural increase 20 years earlier experienced relatively more male emigration. Intact families, other family members (including family-strategy male migrants and trailing female migrants), and single males and females responded strongly to economic incentives, but the singles were most responsive followed by family-strategy males. 相似文献
33.
The role of tourism is of vital economic importance, particularly for small countries with a privileged geographical location and favourable weather conditions. This paper examines the importance of tourism as a conditioning factor for higher regional growth in Portugal by employing the conditional convergence hypothesis of Barro and Sala-i-Martin, associated with the endogenous growth theory. The panel data estimation approach provides evidence of the positive impact of tourism (through the accommodation capacity) on the growth in per-capita income among the Portuguese regions, increasing the rate of convergence. Therefore, tourism can be considered as an alternative source for stimulating higher regional growth in Portugal, if the supply characteristics of this sector are improved. 相似文献
34.
Michael Flaherty 《海外经济评论》2008,(13):32-33
[英国路透社3月20日]中信证券与贝尔斯登的合作计划已经搁浅,这可能是中国海外并购活动的最新一次失败案例。 相似文献
35.
Erik Benrud 《Journal of Economics and Finance》2007,31(2):143-165
The demand for and supply of analysts’ opinions in this model yield an equilibrium that demonstrates how the information content
of the opinions reacts to changes in exogenous parameters. The model also shows how changes in the parameters make analysts’
opinions more or less dispersed; for example, a decline in investor risk aversion, a decrease in market volatility, and an
increase in information costs can lead to analysts’ opinions becoming more similar. Recognizing how exogenous factors can
affect the supply and demand of analysts’ opinions gives additional insights into questions concerning what may appear to
be herd behavior by analysts and also the relationship between forecast dispersion and information content. (JEL: G29, C71) 相似文献
36.
37.
Ohne Zusammenfassung
Dipl.-Ing. (univ.) Michael Belau ist Director und Head of Rental Management
Dipl.-Wirtschaftsing. (FH) Michael Schildger ist Vice President und Head of Finance
Dr. Verena Sturm ist Manager Corporate Real Estate Services 相似文献
38.
The purpose of this essay is to examine psychoanalytically Argyris and Schon's contributions to organization theory and intervention. The author focuses his attention on the problem of individual and organizational resistance to change in the light of Argyris and Schon's cognitive psychological assumptions about learning, reasoning, and effectiveness. 相似文献
39.
This article documents and provides explanations for intraday patterns in returns for the Share Price Index (SPI) futures contract traded on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). Consistent with overseas futures markets research, a positive and significant overnight return is documented. Unlike overseas futures markets, we find little evidence of an end of day price rise. Our evidence suggests that overnight returns for the SPI contract are largely driven by the way returns are typically measured, which ignores the fact that there is a significantly greater frequency of sellers at the market close and buyers at the start of the day. These patterns are consistent with hedging behaviour by futures traders with long positions in the underlying stock. 相似文献
40.
A bstract . The basic ideas of Henry George , 19th century American economist and social philosopher, were not novel in Denmark , which had a tradition of land value taxation and free trade. But they had special appeal for its smallholder farmers. They demanded that George's principles be applied more fully, getting all tax revenues from the land 's unimproved value, so that taxes on buildings, personal property and wages could be abolished. Viggo Ullman 's Danish-Norwegian translation of Progress and Poverty won the commitment of folk school movement leaders and the intelligentsia. In 1903 large landowners gained control of the Liberal Party and proceeded to abolish the traditional land tax, producer of up to 50 percent of State revenues. The Radical Liberals split and took over, to some extent carrying out George's taxation principles. In 1919 a Georgist party, the "Retsforbundet" was founded; it won the balance of power in 1957. But lack of finances and organizing ability and growing voter apathy ended its progress. 相似文献