Minsky Goes to Buffalo—and Takes on the Economics Establishment

This essay is based on remarks presented by the author at The Fourth Bi-Annual Cross-Border Post Keynesian Conference, Buffalo State College, on October 9, 2009. It addresses the economic challenges facing Buffalo, New York, and countless other American cities, especially in the Northeast and Midwest; draws on the writings of Hyman Minsky to offer an interpretation of what many now call the Great Recession, which began in late 2007; and challenges the image of Minsky presented by mainstream economists and journalists, with special attention to a recent lecture by Paul Krugman. The essay closes by returning to Buffalo, where—as Minsky anticipated in the 1990s—the economic fate of working families depends largely on the outcome of a national struggle over the shape of future U.S. economic transformation.     

Does a factor Phillips curve help? An evaluation of the predictive power for U.S. inflation

This article evaluates various models’ predictive power for U.S. inflation rate using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. The starting point is the traditional unemployment Phillips curve. We show that a factor Phillips curve model is superior to the traditional Phillips curve, and its performance is comparable to other factor models. We find that a factor AR model is superior to the factor Phillips curve model, and is the best bivariate or factor model at longer horizons. Finally, we investigate a New Keynesian Phillips curve model, and find that its forecasting performance dominates all other models at the longer horizons.     

A longitudinal study of the professions' attitudes towards competition & advertising

The attitudes towards competition and advertising of the members of five professions in New Zealand were monitored in three surveys carried out in 1985, 1988 and 1994. This paper reports on the changes in attitudes that occurred over this nine-year period, noting marked trends in all the professions towards an acceptance of a competitive orientation and advertising in particular. A partial exception to the general trend favouring competition has been the attitudes towards matters directly related to money (for example, fees and credit facilities), where there was markedly less enthusiasm for competition. Attitudes towards advertising by professional practices have relaxed sufficiently to question whether advertising needs to be a matter of concern to the professions.     

Motivations and Use Context in Mobile Tourism Shopping: Applying Contingency and Task–Technology Fit Theories

Mobile tourism shopping is an emerging market, but there is little theoretically based research on the topic. This study investigates the impact of motivations (value, enjoyment, time saving and mobility) on consumer satisfaction by applying contingency and task–technology fit theories in the mobile tourism shopping context. The results show that value and enjoyment have significant effects on satisfaction. Use context is found to have a full mediating role between time saving and satisfaction as well as between mobility and satisfaction. This study offers theoretical and practical contributions to the tourism literature and mobile tourism industry. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WIC Participation and Relative Quality of Household Food Purchases: Evidence from FoodAPS

We examine the effect of the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) on the quality of household food purchases using the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS) and propensity score matching. A healthy purchasing index (HPI) is used to measure nutritional quality of household food purchases. WIC foods explain the improvement in quality of food purchases, not self‐selection of more nutrition‐conscious households into the program. The improvement in purchase quality was driven entirely by WIC participating households who redeemed WIC foods during the interview week. There was no significant difference between WIC participants who did not redeem WIC foods and eligible nonparticipants. In this sample, there is no evidence that lack of access to clinics has adverse effects on participation nor is there evidence that HPI depends on supermarket access. A supervised machine learning process supports our main conclusion on the importance of WIC foods.     

Firm Heterogeneity and Export Pricing in India

We examine export pricing by Indian manufacturing firms in the early 2000s using a unique data set that matches firm characteristics with product and destination‐level trade data. We find that, in contrast to China and other countries, firm productivity is negatively associated with export prices, and export prices are negatively associated with distance while positively associated with remoteness. Our conjecture is that Indian innovation costs, which are higher than China's, drive down the scope for quality differentiation causing a negative association between productivity and prices. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence consistent with heterogenous goods and short quality ladders, a theoretical possibility noted in the study by Antoniades (2012), an outcome that arises here because of domestic Indian economic and regulatory features.     

Premium setting and bank behavior in a voluntary deposit insurance scheme

This study analyzes the effect of premium rates on banks’ incentives to join a deposit insurance scheme and their incentives to invest in risky projects under a voluntary deposit insurance scheme. We find that in order to maximize social welfare, the insurance agency must either set the premium rate to be low so as to attract all banks to join the insurance scheme, or not to have the deposit insurance at all. However, the low premium rate in the voluntary scheme does not balance the budget of the deposit insurance. We also show that in the compulsory deposit insurance scheme, however, it is possible to impose an optimal premium rate that can balance the insurance agency’s budget and achieve the highest social welfare. The results also present the dominance of the compulsory scheme over the voluntary scheme in terms of maximizing social welfare and balancing the budget.

A robust VaR model under different time periods and weighting schemes

This paper analyses several volatility models by examining their ability to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) for two different time periods and two capitalization weighting schemes. Specifically, VaR is calculated for large and small capitalization stocks, based on Dow Jones (DJ) Euro Stoxx indices and is modeled for long and short trading positions by using non parametric, semi parametric and parametric methods. In order to choose one model among the various forecasting methods, a two-stage backtesting procedure is implemented. In the first stage the unconditional coverage test is used to examine the statistical accuracy of the models. In the second stage a loss function is applied to investigate whether the differences between the models, that calculated accurately the VaR, are statistically significant. Under this framework, the combination of a parametric model with the historical simulation produced robust results across the sample periods, market capitalization schemes, trading positions and confidence levels and therefore there is a risk measure that is reliable.

The role of stochastic volatility and return jumps: reproducing volatility and higher moments in the KOSPI 200 returns dynamics

This paper investigates the role of stochastic volatility and return jumps in reproducing the volatility dynamics and the shape characteristics of the Korean Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) 200 returns distribution. Using efficient method of moments and reprojection analysis, we find that stochastic volatility models, both with and without return jumps, capture return dynamics surprisingly well. The stochastic volatility model without return jumps, however, cannot fully reproduce the conditional kurtosis implied by the data. Return jumps successfully complement this gap. We also find that return jumps are essential in capturing the volatility smirk effects observed in short-term options.

Minimal Hellinger martingale measures of order <Emphasis Type="Italic">q</Emphasis>

This paper proposes an extension of the minimal Hellinger martingale measure (MHM hereafter) concept to any order q≠1 and to the general semimartingale framework. This extension allows us to provide a unified formulation for many optimal martingale measures, including the minimal martingale measure of Föllmer and Schweizer (here q=2). Under some mild conditions of integrability and the absence of arbitrage, we show the existence of the MHM measure of order q and describe it explicitly in terms of pointwise equations in ? ^d . Applications to the maximization of expected power utility at stopping times are given. We prove that, for an agent to be indifferent with respect to the liquidation time of her assets (which is the market’s exit time, supposed to be a stopping time, not any general random time), she is forced to consider a habit formation utility function instead of the original utility, or equivalently she is forced to consider a time-separable preference with a stochastic discount factor.