THE PLACE OF MANAGERS IN INDUSTRIAL DEMOCRACY

The discussion of industrial democracy in Britain has exploded in the last few years, but the result has been to write an agenda which has still to be worked through, not to reveal a consensus which can be written into action at once.     

Explaining Real Commercial Rents Using an Error Correction Model with Panel Data

This paper presents rent models for retail and office property in the United Kingdom. Panel data are used covering eleven regions for 29 years, enabling us to overcome the limitations of a relatively short time series. We use an error correction model (ECM) framework to estimate long-run equilibrium relationships and short-term dynamic corrections. The combination of panel data and an ECM is an innovative approach that is still being developed in economics. We construct new supply series that combine infrequent stock data with more frequent construction data. Separate regional models are estimated for retail and office properties. The regions are then combined into a number of panels on the basis of the income and price elasticities in the long-run and short-run models. Unlike previous studies, we find no evidence of a board north–south divide between low growth and high growth regions. Like these studies we do find a London effect: in London, demand elasticities for space with respect to both price (rent) and income are much lower in magnitude. We conclude that, while the economic drivers may vary, there is no evidence of differences in the operation of the regional property markets outside London. Elasticities for retail and office are similar. Our final models are parsimonious with single measures of economic activity and of supply and always support the use of an ECM.     

Range-Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models

We propose using the price range in the estimation of stochastic volatility models. We show theoretically, numerically, and empirically that range-based volatility proxies are not only highly efficient, but also approximately Gaussian and robust to microstructure noise. Hence range-based Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimation produces highly efficient estimates of stochastic volatility models and extractions of latent volatility. We use our method to examine the dynamics of daily exchange rate volatility and find the evidence points strongly toward two-factor models with one highly persistent factor and one quickly mean-reverting factor.     

Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns

In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This study provides evidence that these voluntary disclosures affect stock prices and the dispersion of analyst expectations. Specifically, we find that the market's reaction to confirming forecasts is significantly positive, indicating that benefits accrue to firms that disclose such forecasts. In addition, although we find no significant change in the mean consensus forecasts (a proxy for earnings expectations) around the confirming forecast date, evidence indicates a significant reduction in the mean and median consensus analyst dispersion (a proxy for earnings uncertainty). Finally, we document a positive association between the reduction of dispersion of analysts' forecasts and the magnitude of the stock market response. Overall, the evidence suggests that confirming forecasts reduce uncertainty about future earnings and that investors price this reduction of uncertainty.     

Real estate return correlations: Real-world limitations on relationships inferred from NCREIF data

Correlation estimates for returns between individual properties are subject to large inherent uncertainties due to limits on the amount of data that is likely to be available for the foreseeable future. After allowance for correlation sampling error, it is impossible to distinguish on an ex ante basis between the risk-reduction capabilities of mean-variance portfolio selection models and naive diversification without regard to property type or geographical location. The naive portfolio diversification strategies of typical institutional real estate portfolio managers are rational responses to limitations on the informational content of statistical analyses of historical real estate data.     

Contagion or Competition: Going Concern Audit Opinions for Real Estate Firms

We examine whether intra–industry information transfers from going–concern audit opinion announcements create contagion or competitive stock price reactions for other real estate firms operating in the same line of business. Using returns from publicly-traded land subdivision/development firms and Real Estate Investment Trusts, we find modest evidence supporting a competitive effect among rival firms as a result of another real estate firm announcing the receipt of a Going Concern Opinion (GCO) from its independent auditors.     

In search of a residual dividend policy

We survey 309 sample firms exhibiting behavior consistent with a residual dividend policy and their matched counterparts to learn how they set their dividend policies. The findings reveal that the sample firms are more likely than their counterparts to maintain a long-term dividend payout ratio, use long-run earnings forecasts in setting the dividend, and be unconcerned about the cost of raising external funds. Yet, firms behaving as though they follow a residual dividend policy generally do not profess to follow the policy. At best, the sample firms follow a “modified” residual policy in which they carefully manage their payout ratio and dividend trend. Although it may not be an explicit goal of such a dividend policy, consistently low free cash flow typically results.     

Incentives and Information Exchange in International Taxation

The exchange of taxpayer-specific information between national tax authorities has recently emerged as a key and controversial topic in international tax policy discussions, most notably with the OECD's harmful tax practices project and the EU's savings tax initiative. This paper analyzes the effects of information exchange and withholding taxes, recognizing that countries which agree to exchange information do not forfeit the ability to levy withholding taxes, and also focusing in particular on the effects of innovative revenue-sharing arrangements. Amongst the findings are that: (i) the transfer of withholding tax receipts to the residence country, as planned in the European Union, has no effect on equilibrium tax rates, but acts purely as a lump-sum transfer; (ii) in contrast, allocating some of the revenue from information exchange to the source country—counter to usual practice (though no less so than the EU agreement)—would have adverse strategic effects on total revenue; (iii) nevertheless, any withholding tax regime is Pareto dominated by information exchange combined with appropriate revenue sharing; and, in particular, (iv) sharing of the additional revenues raised from information provided, while efficiency-reducing, could be in the interests of large countries as a means of persuading small countries to provide that information voluntarily. JEL Code: H77, H87, F42     

Optimal portfolio choice in the bond market

We consider the Merton problem of optimal portfolio choice when the traded instruments are the set of zero-coupon bonds. Working within a Markovian Heath–Jarrow–Morton model of the interest rate term structure driven by an infinite-dimensional Wiener process, we give sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an optimal trading strategy. When there is uniqueness, we provide a characterization of the optimal portfolio as a sum of mutual funds. Furthermore, we show that a Gauss–Markov random field model proposed by Kennedy [Math. Financ. 4, 247–258(1994)] can be treated in this framework, and explicitly calculate the optimal portfolio. We show that the optimal portfolio in this case can be identified with the discontinuities of a certain function of the market parameters.     

The Institutions of Industrial Restructuring in Southeast Asia

The expected restructuring of Asian corporations in the aftermath of the 1997 financial crisis has not materialized. This paper argues that restructuring in Asia will depend upon two institutional changes. First, the creation of high quality institutions that promotes the growth of new entrants and provides incentives to incumbents to restructure and or exit. Second, that the market scope of dominant incumbents be confronted and limited. The first condition creates pathways for new organizational populations to enter the economy and the second ensures room for their growth. The current debate emphasizes the former but neglects the latter. The absence of either inhibits the rate and direction of restructuring for two reasons. First, incumbents may lack the incentive and ability to exit or transform their structures and, secondly, incumbents can create a ‘blocking coalition’ to diminish competition from new entrants.