Particle filters for continuous likelihood evaluation and maximisation

In this paper, a method is introduced for approximating the likelihood for the unknown parameters of a state space model. The approximation converges to the true likelihood as the simulation size goes to infinity. In addition, the approximating likelihood is continuous as a function of the unknown parameters under rather general conditions. The approach advocated is fast and robust, and it avoids many of the pitfalls associated with current techniques based upon importance sampling. We assess the performance of the method by considering a linear state space model, comparing the results with the Kalman filter, which delivers the true likelihood. We also apply the method to a non-Gaussian state space model, the stochastic volatility model, finding that the approach is efficient and effective. Applications to continuous time finance models and latent panel data models are considered. Two different multivariate approaches are proposed. The neoclassical growth model is considered as an application.     

How accurate are government forecasts of economic fundamentals? The case of Taiwan

A government’s ability to forecast key economic fundamentals accurately can affect business confidence, consumer sentiment, and foreign direct investment, among others. A government forecast based on an econometric model is replicable, whereas one that is not fully based on an econometric model is non-replicable. Governments typically provide non-replicable forecasts (or expert forecasts) of economic fundamentals, such as the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate.In this paper, we develop a methodology for evaluating non-replicable forecasts. We argue that in order to do so, one needs to retrieve from the non-replicable forecast its replicable component, and that it is the difference in accuracy between these two that matters. An empirical example to forecast economic fundamentals for Taiwan shows the relevance of the proposed methodological approach. Our main finding is that the undocumented knowledge of the Taiwanese government reduces forecast errors substantially.     

Immobiliencontrolling — Optimierung der immobilienbezogenen Kosten durch Gründung einer Generalmietgesellschaft

Ohne Zusammenfassung Dipl.-Ing. (univ.) Michael Belau ist Director und Head of Rental Management Dipl.-Wirtschaftsing. (FH) Michael Schildger ist Vice President und Head of Finance Dr. Verena Sturm ist Manager Corporate Real Estate Services     

Identifying business opportunities for sustainable development: Longitudinal and experimental evidence contributing to the field of sustainable entrepreneurship

Which factors facilitate the identification of business opportunities for sustainable development? To answer this question, we develop a process model of sustainable opportunity identification. We argue that sustainable opportunity identification is a process with transitions from problem to solution identification and from solution to sustainable opportunity identification. Moreover, the transitions are facilitated by two factors—awareness of adverse consequences and entrepreneurial attitude—providing motivation and direction in the process. We tested our model in a field study (N = 107) and two experiments (N = 53 and N = 69). Our findings show that awareness of adverse consequences and entrepreneurial attitude influence the process of sustainable opportunity identification, explaining under which conditions people are more likely to identify business opportunities for sustainable development. Our study thus contributes to the field of sustainable entrepreneurship.     

Anchor stores

Planned shopping malls usually have one or more department (anchor) stores and multiple specialized retailers selling substitutable commodities in each commodity category. If consumers know their taste for the anchor's commodity and its price, but learn about a retailer's commodity only by costly search, collocation may benefit both store types. Intra-mall competition reduces markups, but anchors guarantee a minimum surplus from search. A mall with many retailers makes finding a suitable specialized commodity highly probable. For some parameters, additional consumer search dominates the loss in retail markups, so a profit-maximizing land developer would rent mall space to both store types.     

WHAT MAKES A GREAT JOURNAL GREAT IN ECONOMICS? THE SINGER NOT THE SONG

Abstract This paper analyses what makes a great journal great in economics. Alternative research assessment measures (RAM) are discussed, with an emphasis on the Thomson Reuters Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science database. ISI RAM that are calculated annually or updated daily are defined, including the classic 2‐year impact factor (2YIF), 5‐year impact factor (5YIF), immediacy (zero‐year impact factor (0YIF)), eigenfactor score, article influence, citation performance per paper online, h‐index, Zinfluence, PI‐BETA (papers ignored ‐ by even the authors) and two new RAM measures, self‐citation threshold approval rating and impact factor inflation. The data are analysed for the most highly cited journals in economics, management, business and business–finance on the basis of 2YIF. In addition to evaluating research in the most highly cited journals in economics, management, business and business–finance, the paper evaluates alternative RAM, highlights similarities and differences in RAM criteria, finds that several RAM capture similar performance characteristics, and finds that immediacy and PI‐BETA are not highly correlated with other RAM. Harmonic mean rankings of the 12 RAM criteria are also presented. Emphasizing 2YIF to the exclusion of other useful RAM criteria can lead to a distorted evaluation of journal performance and influence.     

Internet odysseys: linking web roles to career and community investments

This paper examines a new kind of career odyssey, namely that into the relatively uncharted territory of the world wide web. It extends recent ideas about personal and communal career investments by exploring people's web-enabled career behaviour, based on Tapscott et al.'s (2000) typology of web roles. MBA students completed a preliminary career exploration instrument and then met in different focus groups according to the web role with which each student most identified. The reported career investments varied depending on the web role involved. An attempt was made to corroborate these findings through practitioner interviews, but there were problems in reconciling the two kinds of data. The implications of these findings are discussed, and a series of observations is offered concerning the further study of the increasingly virtual journeys anticipated for careers of the future.     

Savings and retail price reform in a queue-rationed economy

The paper addresses the effect on consumer saving behavior of queue rationing and of price reform in a Soviet-type economy in a lifecycle framework with overlapping generations. It is shown that consumers save less for retirement in a queue-rationed exchange economy with black markets than they would in a free-market system with the same endowments. The expectation of price reform is thus likely to cause an increase in consumer savings. In addition, an analysis is given of the effect of the increase in controlled prices on the black market prices and on the prices of unrationed goods.     

Laying the foundations of international careers research

As an editorial to the special issue “new avenues in international careers research” this article discusses the roots of the international careers research stream, which sits at the intersection between career studies, HRM and international management. In order to support future studies in this emerging area of enquiry, we attempt to lay down the foundations of a research agenda based around what we see as the three core areas of interest: contextualised careers research, comparative careers research and careers research in internationally operating organisations. After providing some suggestions for the kinds of theoretical and methodological tools that will be required to build on these foundations, we introduce the five empirical papers that comprise this special issue.