The effects of government spending shocks on consumption under optimal stabilization

Economic theory has yet to come up with a general guidance regarding the dynamic effects and welfare implications of shocks to public spending. With the aim to provide a theoretical benchmark, we analyse if a rise in private consumption following an exogenous rise in government spending is a feature of the economy under optimal stabilization in a standard New Keynesian setting augmented for the presence of liquidity-constrained agents and non-separable preferences. Our results provide little evidence in support of a crowding-in effect under ‘timelessly optimal’ policy.     

Adolescent injuries in relation to economic status: An international perspective

The primary objective of the study was to examine the relationship between patterns in car-to-car crashes involving young drivers and car and driver characteristics and the research design was a national register-based prospective cohort study. Individual records in a cohort born 1970 – 1972 are linked to road-traffic-crash data (1988 – 2000). Subjects' first police-registered two-car crash leading to severe or fatal injury (n = 4875) are identified. Typical crash patterns are highlighted and associations between pattern and both car and individual socio-demographic characteristics are tested. Four crash patterns are highlighted. Male drivers and those with lower educational attainment are over-represented in all patterns. Pattern-based risk levels vary considerably according to car safety level and driver's age at time of injury and socio-economic status. Crash patterns might be considered in young adult driver education systems, bearing in mind the consistent higher risks of male drivers and of drivers with lower educational attainment.     

Participants' response to the Delphi method: An attitudinal perspective

The processes involved in an individual's response to the Delphi method are conditioned by a number of psychological affects. This paper examines aspects of two of these processes: the basis for changing opinions, and the factors related to continued participation in subsequent Delphi rounds. The attitudinal perspective is shown to be promising in explaining an individual panelist's response in the Delphi method. Cognitive dissonance apparently has a significant role to play in bolstering the assimilation of nonconforming respondents. This is, however, complicated by the respondents' perception of the credibility of the feedback received. Careful choice of panels may reduce dropouts, presumably by selecting those with a high degree of ego involvement. Nonetheless, elements of cognitive dissonance apparently lead certain panelists to abandon the Delphi process. It is evident that numerous parallels exist between psychological explanations of attitude change and the behavior of Delphi panelists.     

Structural correlation decompositions for business cycle analysis

This note demonstrates a decomposition of correlations into contributions of structural shocks. The method is useful for analysis of complex models that can be expressed as linear state-space models, e.g., DSGE, SVAR or dynamic factor models.     

The legal framework and initiatives for promoting safety in the United Arab Emirates

Injury is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE is a rapidly developing country with fast economic growth, demographical and environmental changes that are associated with new hazards emerging at a similar pace. The UAE as a federal entity has federal and local systems responsible for safety policy, regulations and enforcement. To set priorities for safety promotion and injury prevention, it is necessary to have data on the most frequent external causes of injury and the main individual, equipment and environmental risk factors that contribute to injury. However good quality data for injury prevention are scarce. The aim of this paper is to describe the scale of injury as a public health problem in the UAE, and the development of safety policies, regulations and promotion efforts with special emphasis on traffic, occupational and child safety.     

File sharing as conditional cooperation: evidence from a framed field experiment

In this project, we investigate downloading and sharing behaviour in a novel ‘piracy game’ modelled after standard public good games. We find that willingness to share correlates positively with the sharing by others. By contrast, actual behaviour in the ‘piracy game’ is not correlated with self-reported behaviour.     

The Role of Repetition and Observability in Deterring Insurance Fraud

In this paper, I analyze an inspection game between an insurer and an infinite sequence of policyholders, who can try to misrepresent relevant information in order to obtain coverage or lower insurance premium. Because claim-auditing is costly for the insurer, ex-post moral hazard problem arises. I find that the repeated game effect serves as a commitment device, allowing the insurer to deter fraud completely (for sufficiently high discount rate) but only when the policyholders observe past auditing strategies. Under weaker observability conditions, only partial efficiency gains are generally possible. I conclude that the insurers should spend resources on signaling their anti-fraud attempts to the potential policyholders. Similar conclusions can be drawn with respect to conceptually similar problems, such as tax evasion.     

‘Give me a chance!’ An experiment in social decision under risk

This paper reports the results of a ‘probabilistic dictator game’ experiment in which subjects were given an option to share chances to win a prize with a dummy player. Using a within-subject design we manipulated two aspects of the decision, the relative cost of sharing and the nature of the lottery: the draws were either independent for the two players (‘noncompetitive’ condition) or one’s success meant other’s failure (‘competitive’ condition). We also asked for decisions in a standard, non-probabilistic, setting. The main results can be summarized as follows: first, a substantial fraction of subjects do share chances to win, also in the competitive treatments, thus showing concern for the other player that cannot be explained by outcome-based models. Second, subjects share less in the competitive treatment than in other treatments, indicating that procedural fairness alone cannot explain the data. Overall, these results suggest that models aiming at generalizing social concerns to risky environments will have to rely on a mix of distributive and procedural fairness.     

More than lip service: linking the intensity of empowerment initiatives to individual well-being and performance

We conceptualize empowerment initiatives as varying in terms of intensity – or the degree to which the intervention is rhetorical (aiming to influence employees' sense of control at work, what we refer to as surface empowerment) as opposed to actual (aiming to influence the actual degree of employee job authority, what we refer to as deep empowerment). We then test the effects of rhetorical vs. actual empowerment interventions on employee well-being and performance, as well as the degree to which self-efficacy mediates these effects on the basis of a simulation-based experiment. Results indicate that although both surface and deep empowerment initiatives have beneficial effects on individual well-being, only the latter results in performance increase. We also find that self-efficacy fully mediates the association between surface empowerment (as compared with non-empowerment) and well-being, but only partially mediates the association between deep empowerment (as compared with non-empowerment) and well-being.